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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

Steve
Senior Storm Chaser

Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA

Re: Oh that crazed CPC model...
Mon Feb 23 2004 01:10 PM

No telling on El Nino. Seems that it's been more La Nina to netural for the last couple of years (at least in the eastern zones). Today's SSTA's look pretty neutal still. As for the Atlantic, it's mostly "slightly warmer than average" except right along the entire East and Gulf Coasts of the CONUS.

I don't have much of a handle on the 2004 season yet. I'd expect it (on a hunch) to differ from 2002-2003. We'll have to check the water temperature profiles in May and also continue to watch where the the trofs are lining up (and how far west they retrograde) We'll have to watch the EastPac for any deviations from neutral and how they play into the peak season (late August - mid October). Many may recall that March-June period is the most statisically difficult period to predict oncoming El Ninos. And we'll have to watch precipitation profiles for the winter and spring in the SE.

Anyway, I'd guess that the season (#'s wise) should be closer to average than the last 2 years, but that's a real stretch right now. Absent a strong El Nino, I'd figure about 12 NS is as good of a place as any to build off of.

Steve

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
The Quiet Time Continues	Ed Dunham	Mon Feb 23 2004 01:10 PM
Re: The Quiet Time Continues	NNE	Fri Mar 26 2004 02:20 PM
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!	Kevin	Fri Mar 26 2004 03:11 PM
Re: !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!	NNE	Fri Mar 26 2004 07:49 PM
Surprise south atlantic hurricane !!!	Cycloneye	Fri Mar 26 2004 04:23 PM
Re: Surprise south atlantic hurricane !!!	Summercyclone	Fri Mar 26 2004 04:45 PM
Re: Surprise south atlantic hurricane history made !!!	Cycloneye	Fri Mar 26 2004 05:26 PM
Re: Surprise south atlantic hurricane history made !!!	Summercyclone	Fri Mar 26 2004 05:33 PM
Its That Time Again	Ed Dunham	Tue Mar 23 2004 08:52 PM
Re: Its That Time Again	Cycloneye	Wed Mar 24 2004 05:11 PM
Re: Its That Time Again	visitor	Fri Mar 26 2004 02:12 PM
Oh that crazed CPC model...	Kevin	Tue Feb 17 2004 09:55 AM
Re: Oh that crazed CPC model...	Ed Dunham	Tue Feb 17 2004 06:56 PM
Re: Oh that crazed CPC model...	Kevin	Wed Feb 18 2004 09:20 PM
Re: Oh that crazed CPC model...	Steve	Mon Feb 23 2004 01:10 PM
Re: Oh that crazed CPC model...	stormchazer	Tue Mar 09 2004 08:43 AM
Re: The Quiet Time Continues	Kevin	Wed Feb 04 2004 02:13 PM
Re: The Quiet Time Continues	Cycloneye	Wed Feb 04 2004 07:46 AM
Look at this!	Bill	Sun Feb 01 2004 09:16 AM
Re: Look at this!	JustMe	Sun Feb 01 2004 10:45 AM
Re: The Quiet Time Continues	Chris Hunter	Sun Jan 18 2004 09:44 AM

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