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Rafael continues to decouple over the Gulf. Meanwhile we are keeping a watch on Invest 98L around the Bahamas and potentially a new low forming in the Caribbean.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 31 (Milton) , Major: 31 (Milton) Florida - Any: 31 (Milton) Major: 31 (Milton)

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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

LI Phil
User

Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)

Re: Gray's Forcast April 2....
Mon Apr 05 2004 10:38 AM

Hmmmm. 14/8/3. That's what I predicted back in December. One part of the forecast should put a bit of caution in the minds of Florida and East Coast residents this year:

"Long-term statistics show that, on average, the more active the overall Atlantic basin hurricane season is, the greater the probability of U.S. hurricane landfall. For example, landfall observations during the last 100 years show that a greater number of intense (Saffir-Simpson category 3-4-5) hurricanes strike the Florida and U.S. East Coast during years of (1) increased NTC and (2) above-average North Atlantic SSTA* conditions."

Of course, this doesn't mean the EC will see a hit, but there's a higher probability than usual.

The official start of the season is still a long way away, but it should prove to be a very interesting season if Gray et. al. verify.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"

Post Extras

Entire topic
Subject	Posted by	Posted on
First Known South Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Forms	CFHC	Mon Apr 05 2004 10:38 AM
Re: First Known South Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Forms	javlin	Thu May 06 2004 12:00 AM
It's LI Phil Javlin	LI Phil	Thu May 06 2004 09:42 AM
Re: It's LI Phil Javlin	Steve Hirschb	Thu May 06 2004 12:24 PM
http://chat.hexbot.com/ DELETED	Chat.Hexbot.com	Wed Apr 28 2004 05:36 PM
Re: http://chat.hexbot.com/	Hurricane	Wed Apr 28 2004 09:30 PM
S.Atl	summercyclone	Thu Apr 29 2004 01:13 PM
Re: First Known South Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Forms	cyclone_head	Wed Apr 07 2004 09:24 AM
TSR April Forecast	LI Phil	Wed Apr 07 2004 03:28 PM
a tad more won't hurt	HanKFranK	Thu Apr 08 2004 09:57 PM
Re: First Known South Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Forms	cyclone_head	Mon Mar 29 2004 08:37 AM
"catarina"	HanKFranK	Mon Mar 29 2004 01:40 PM
Re: First Known South Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Forms	Hurric	Sat Mar 27 2004 07:12 AM
Re: First Known South Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Forms	summercyclone	Sat Mar 27 2004 11:01 AM
Re: First Known South Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Forms	HanKFranK	Sat Mar 27 2004 01:36 PM
Re: First Known South Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Forms	Hurricane	Sun Mar 28 2004 03:06 PM
Re: First Known South Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Forms	NNE	Sun Mar 28 2004 05:28 PM
Re: First Known South Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Forms	Hurricane	Mon Mar 29 2004 03:11 AM
Re: First Known South Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Forms	summercyclone	Thu Apr 08 2004 11:15 PM
Re: First Known South Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Forms	JustMe	Thu Apr 08 2004 11:34 PM
Re: First Known South Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Forms	JustMe	Thu Apr 08 2004 11:36 PM
Re: First Known South Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Forms	Rich B	Fri Apr 09 2004 04:48 PM
Yo	Steve	Sat Apr 24 2004 02:34 AM
Re: Another S. Atlantic Hurricane??	summercyclone	Sat Apr 24 2004 09:12 PM
Re: Another S. Atlantic Hurricane??	summercyclone	Sat Apr 24 2004 09:30 PM
Re: Another S. Atlantic Hurricane??/la nina cometh?	HanKFranK	Sat Apr 24 2004 11:11 PM
Hurricane season 2004 around the corner	Cycloneye	Mon Apr 26 2004 06:23 PM
hybrids and rejects	HanKFranK	Mon Apr 26 2004 11:59 PM
Re: hybrids and rejects	Rabbit	Thu Apr 29 2004 05:06 PM
Re: hybrids and rejects	HanKFranK	Thu Apr 29 2004 07:32 PM
It looks like la nina developing	Cycloneye	Sun May 02 2004 07:53 PM
Re: It looks like la nina developing	Steve	Sun May 02 2004 10:38 PM
Re: It looks like la nina developing	Steve	Wed May 05 2004 01:06 PM
Re: It looks like la nina developing	summercyclone	Thu May 06 2004 05:30 PM
Faith vs. Inez	recmod	Thu May 06 2004 09:07 PM
Re: Faith vs. Inez	Steve-unplugged	Thu May 06 2004 09:30 PM
Re: Faith vs. Inez	LI Phil	Thu May 06 2004 09:35 PM
Re: Faith vs. Inez	JustMe	Fri May 07 2004 12:05 PM
Re: Faith vs. Inez	Spike	Fri May 07 2004 12:43 PM
subtropics	HanKFranK	Fri May 07 2004 01:42 PM
Re: subtropics	Ed Dunham	Mon May 10 2004 10:14 PM
Re: subtropics	Steve-UP	Mon May 10 2004 10:23 PM
Re: subtropics	Ed Dunham	Mon May 10 2004 11:11 PM
TSR Forecast	LI Phil	Tue May 11 2004 10:17 AM
Very Cool Site	LI Phil	Tue May 11 2004 04:32 PM
Outer Banks Site Now Active On Hurricane Alley	LI Phil	Wed May 12 2004 10:09 AM
Hybrid hurricane in 2000	Rabbit	Wed May 12 2004 01:46 PM
Re: Hybrid hurricane in 2000	Steve	Wed May 12 2004 09:23 PM
Hey Steve	LI Phil	Thu May 13 2004 10:28 AM
Re: Hey Steve	Steve	Thu May 13 2004 10:31 AM
LOL	LI Phil	Thu May 13 2004 10:37 AM
One Last Thing...	LI Phil	Thu May 13 2004 10:54 AM
Tropical Storm Grace-1997	Rabbit	Thu May 13 2004 01:40 PM
Tropical Storm Grace-1997	Rabbit	Thu May 13 2004 01:41 PM
More 2004 Hurricane Predictions	LI Phil	Thu May 13 2004 02:52 PM
Re: More 2004 Hurricane Predictions	javlin	Thu May 13 2004 04:16 PM
Re: More 2004 Hurricane Predictions	Steve	Fri May 14 2004 08:14 AM
2004 Hurricane Predictions	LI Phil	Fri May 14 2004 10:13 AM
Re: 2004 Hurricane Predictions	stuart dave	Sat May 15 2004 11:36 AM
medium range	HanKFranK	Fri May 14 2004 11:38 AM
Re: medium range	Steve	Fri May 14 2004 01:35 PM
West African Sahel...	LI Phil	Fri May 14 2004 04:33 PM
Re: West African Sahel...	summercyclone	Fri May 14 2004 06:14 PM
Re: West African Sahel...	LI Phil	Fri May 14 2004 08:41 PM
Re: West African Sahel...	HanKFranK	Sat May 15 2004 11:23 AM
Re: West African Sahel...	Steve	Sat May 15 2004 12:02 PM
MJO, ENSO, SSTs, etc.	LI Phil	Sat May 15 2004 07:35 PM
Re: MJO, ENSO, SSTs, etc.	Steve	Sat May 15 2004 11:41 PM
Re: MJO, ENSO, SSTs, etc.	HanKFranK	Sun May 16 2004 11:48 PM
Re: West African Sahel...	Steve	Fri May 14 2004 05:29 PM
Thanks, Steve	LI Phil	Fri May 14 2004 05:33 PM
ANOTHER S. ATL storm threatens Brazil	summercyclone	Fri May 07 2004 03:06 PM
Re: ANOTHER S. ATL storm threatens Brazil	LI Phil	Fri May 07 2004 03:37 PM
Re: ANOTHER S. ATL storm threatens Brazil	Steve	Fri May 07 2004 04:49 PM
Poll=When and where Alex will form	Cycloneye	Fri May 07 2004 06:42 PM
Re: Poll=When and where Alex will form	LI Phil	Fri May 07 2004 09:39 PM
Re: Poll=When and where Alex will form	HanKFranK	Sat May 08 2004 04:02 PM
Re: Poll=When and where Alex will form	Steve Hirschberg	Sun May 09 2004 11:36 AM
nah	HanKFranK	Sun May 09 2004 10:22 PM
Re: nah	Steve-up	Mon May 10 2004 12:53 AM
Re: Steve	LI Phil	Mon May 10 2004 10:36 AM
Re: Steve	Steve	Mon May 10 2004 12:19 PM
Re: Steve	LI Phil	Mon May 10 2004 12:44 PM
Phil	Cycloneye	Mon May 10 2004 03:22 PM
check out SW carib and yucatan	lois	Mon May 10 2004 04:01 PM
Re: check out SW carib and yucatan	Cycloneye	Mon May 10 2004 04:28 PM
Re: check out SW carib and yucatan	LI Phil	Mon May 10 2004 05:02 PM
Re: Steve	GaryC	Mon May 10 2004 12:47 PM
Re: It looks like la nina developing	LI Phil	Wed May 05 2004 02:58 PM
my hurricane forecast	Rabbit	Wed May 05 2004 03:49 PM
Re: my hurricane forecast	LI Phil	Wed May 05 2004 04:32 PM
Tropical Cyclone Summaries	Ed Dunham	Tue Apr 27 2004 06:46 PM
tristan de cunha storm	HanKFranK	Sat Apr 24 2004 11:27 PM
central atlantic	HanKFranK	Fri Apr 09 2004 06:02 PM
Re: central atlantic	Steve Hirsch	Fri Apr 09 2004 11:54 PM
Re: central atlantic	JustMe	Sat Apr 10 2004 12:49 AM
Warm or cool? Or both?	Kevin	Sat Apr 10 2004 09:36 AM
Suspect Area?	Jamie	Sun Apr 11 2004 04:13 PM
UKMET shows central atlantic suspect area	Cycloneye	Mon Apr 12 2004 07:10 PM
Re: UKMET shows central atlantic suspect area	Rich B	Tue Apr 13 2004 06:27 AM
Re: UKMET shows central atlantic suspect area	JoshK	Wed Apr 14 2004 07:09 PM
Re: UKMET shows central atlantic suspect area	Rich B	Thu Apr 15 2004 10:00 AM
Possible tropical cyclone tryed to form again in the south atlantic?	Hurricane	Sat Apr 17 2004 04:08 PM
Re: Possible tropical cyclone tryed to form again in the south atlantic?	summercyclone	Sat Apr 17 2004 07:55 PM
Re: Possible tropical cyclone tryed to form again in the south atlantic?	Hurricane	Sat Apr 17 2004 09:29 PM
Re: Possible tropical cyclone tryed to form again in the south atlantic?	summercyclone	Mon Apr 19 2004 11:17 AM
Re: Possible tropical cyclone tryed to form again in the south atlantic?	MoparMitch	Mon Apr 19 2004 12:53 PM
Re: Possible tropical cyclone tryed to form again in the south atlantic?	Rabbit	Mon Apr 19 2004 01:29 PM
Re: Possible tropical cyclone tryed to form again in the south atlantic?	Ed Dunham	Mon Apr 19 2004 08:14 PM
Re: Possible tropical cyclone tryed to form again in the south atlantic?	Rabbit	Wed Apr 21 2004 03:34 PM
Rabbit's EASTPAC satellite photo	LI Phil	Wed Apr 21 2004 05:41 PM
Re: Rabbit's EASTPAC satellite photo	Rabbit	Wed Apr 21 2004 08:05 PM
Re: Rabbit's EASTPAC satellite photo	LI Phil	Thu Apr 22 2004 10:41 AM
Re: Rabbit's EASTPAC satellite photo	summercyclone	Thu Apr 22 2004 12:30 PM
Re: Rabbit's EASTPAC satellite photo	Brad in Miami	Thu Apr 22 2004 01:56 PM
Ekaka and Halli	summercyclone	Thu Apr 22 2004 12:46 PM
Re: Ekaka and Halli	summercyclone	Thu Apr 22 2004 12:48 PM
Re: Ekeka and Hali	LI Phil	Thu Apr 22 2004 03:21 PM
NHC fluke or ignorance?	Rabbit	Fri Apr 23 2004 03:01 AM
Re: NHC fluke or ignorance?	LI Phil	Fri Apr 23 2004 10:22 AM
Re: First Known South Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Forms	NNE	Tue Mar 30 2004 09:05 PM
Re: First Known South Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Forms	MoparMitch	Wed Mar 31 2004 12:24 PM
Gray's Forcast April 2....	MoparMitch	Fri Apr 02 2004 01:08 PM
Re: Gray's Forcast April 2....	Steve	Fri Apr 02 2004 01:36 PM
Re: Gray's Forcast April 2....	LI Phil	Mon Apr 05 2004 10:38 AM
Re: First Known South Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Forms	friend	Mon Mar 29 2004 07:21 AM
Re: First Known South Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Forms	troy	Fri Mar 26 2004 05:55 PM
Re: First Known South Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Forms	NNE	Fri Mar 26 2004 07:42 PM
Re: First Known South Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Forms	Summercyclone	Fri Mar 26 2004 08:18 PM

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