First Known South Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Forms

So I re-upped my subscription with Accuweather for the storm season. Joe B is on vacation so the only stuff I could get from his site was a review of the 2003 season (relative to his landfall intensity forecast which topped out in the 60's) and some preliminary comments as to what he was looking at for 2004. His hurricane analogs from April are 1944, 1966, 1978 and 1995.

When looking at the maps, 1995 was mostly a fish spinner and Gulf of Mexico year (Dean in TX, Opal and Erin in NW FL, Gabrielle/Allison/Roxanne in Mexico, Jerry in SE FL, and all those storms curving from about 65 west and eastward in the Western Atlantic).
Map of 1995 Storms

1978 featured only 2 weak US landfalls - Amelia in South Texas and Bess in Western Louisiana. The rest were fish spinners in the Atlantic, most curving between 55 and 75 west with the exception of Hope which formed just east of the St. Augustine, FL coast). Cora hit the Southern Yucatan and Debra hit the Vera Cruz area.
Map of 1978 Hurricane Season

The 1966 Season was primarily a fish spinner year with storms forming primarily south of 15N and curving between 60 and 78W. Alma formed off the CA Coast and moved northward through Cuba and eventually hit around Apalachacola and finally the Massachusetts Cape. Faith began as a CV Storm, looped in the Bahams, clipped the FL Keys and eventually landfalled in Northern Mexico. Hollie formed in the BOC and made landfall on the Central Mexican Coast.
1966 Hurricane Season Map

Finally, 1944 was a strong East Coast and Gulf of Mexico year. The vortexes of the parabolas at curvature were very broad. I'm assuming there was a pretty strong Bermuda High with its western influence just off the US East Coast. The Tampa Bay area was hit with a Category 1 storm, Southern NC took a TD/TS hit, CT got a Cat 1 hit, Coastal New England took 3 brushes (including the CT hit), SE La took a TS hit, and Mexico took 2 or 3 TS-Cat 1 hits.
1944 Hurricane Map

As far as the summer weather patterns, Joe is looking at 1952, 1954, 1995 and 1998. These mostly featured below normal rainfall in the SE with strong spring reversals of the SOI. He is forecasting the heat (+3 above normal) to be centered from about Western Tennessee to eastern Colorado and centered over Arkansas and Missouri. Most of those years also featured direr and warmer than average temps for all the SE States.

A few clues that Joe did give was that his landfall intensity forecast this year is factoring around 50. 37 is the normal for the US Mainland and Canadian Maritimes. Last year was around 63 or so. What also promises to be different this year (assuming no El Nino) is that the trofs (yeah, another trof split year ahead) will be much closer to the East Coast with pieces going back into the Gulf of Mexico. Joe expects the trofs to be progressive this year rather than backing west.

Joe's early take on the season is one of the 5 or 6 pieces to my forecast puzzle which I hope to have ready by late in the month.

Peace.

Steve

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