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Tropical Storm Watch issued for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to W of Channel 5 Bridge, and for the Dry Tortugas #RAFAEL #FLWX
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 25 (Milton) , Major: 25 (Milton) Florida - Any: 25 (Milton) Major: 25 (Milton)
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ADV#10 11:00 am EDT
38.5N 16.2W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 999mb
Moving:
Ene at 17 mph
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TS Rafael
ADV#5 3:00 pm EDT
15.5N 76.7W
Wind: 45MPH
Pres: 997mb
Moving:
N at 9 mph
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summercyclone
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Re: Anyone see Roland Stedham today? re: dry may
      Sun May 30 2004 08:35 PM

Actually, there is research done my Jim Lushine at NWS MIA that correlates wet and dry May weather to (major) hurricane strike probability for S. Fl. Jim presented his finding recently and they are:

In re: 24 wettest Mays in Miami== number of major hurricane strikes in those years in S. Fla= ZERO

In re: 20 driest Mays= 7 strikes.

The driest was in 1965 (Betsy)

2nd driest was 1935 (Great Labor Day Hurricane)

3rd Driest was 1992 (Andrew)

Fifth driest was 1945 (Major Hurricane in S Fl).

This May will go into the books (assuming it doesn't rain on Memorial Day in MIA) as the FOURTH Driest.

I don't know about June (not too soon, I suspect, as Bobbi says)..but...there is a a much higher than normal probability of a hurricane/major hurricane in S. Fl this year, based on all available information, periodicity and trends.

sc


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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Season Preparations CFHCAdministrator Sun May 30 2004 08:35 PM
. * * tropical low Rabbit   Sun May 30 2004 11:17 PM
. * * Re: tropical low & split screen question LoisCane   Mon May 31 2004 09:35 AM
. * * Re: will it ever rain in S. Fla? Tropics Guy   Mon May 31 2004 02:11 PM
. * * Re: will it ever rain in S. Fla? Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon May 31 2004 02:58 PM
. * * it rained... i walked in the rain LoisCane   Mon May 31 2004 03:49 PM
. * * Re: it rained... i walked in the rain LI Phil   Mon May 31 2004 05:09 PM
. * * systems LoisCane   Mon May 31 2004 07:05 PM
. * * Third Person...hehehehe LI Phil   Mon May 31 2004 07:10 PM
. * * great ceasars ghost LoisCane   Mon May 31 2004 11:42 PM
. * * NW Carib Wildcat   Thu Jun 10 2004 02:59 PM
. * * Re: Third Person...hehehehe LoisCane   Mon May 31 2004 11:39 PM
. * * Re: it rained... i walked in the rain Spike   Mon May 31 2004 05:19 PM
. * * i take it back.. look at 9n/37w LoisCane   Mon May 31 2004 09:56 AM
. * * Re: i take it back.. look at 9n/37w DustDuchess   Mon May 31 2004 11:11 AM
. * * New Picture LI Phil   Mon May 31 2004 11:19 AM
. * * Slightly off-topic but... Domino   Mon May 31 2004 03:34 AM
. * * Anyone see Roland Stedham today? re: dry may LoisCane   Sun May 30 2004 07:28 PM
. * * Re: Anyone see Roland Stedham today? re: dry may summercyclone   Sun May 30 2004 08:35 PM
. * * 65.... LoisCane   Sun May 30 2004 09:15 PM
. * * Hey Bobbi... LI Phil   Sun May 30 2004 09:29 PM
. * * I love it... Steve   Sun May 30 2004 09:41 PM
. * * Steve, you're a funny dude... LI Phil   Sun May 30 2004 09:47 PM
. * * Re: That Avitar LI Phil   Sun May 30 2004 09:51 PM
. * * Normal Preps stormchazer   Sun May 30 2004 10:25 PM
. * * My Avitar? LI Phil   Sun May 30 2004 10:30 PM
. * * Re: My Avitar? Tropics Guy   Sun May 30 2004 11:11 PM
. * * Re: I love it... Steve   Sun May 30 2004 09:44 PM
. * * Re: Season Preparations Cycloneye   Sun May 30 2004 03:17 PM
. * * Re: Season Preparations to stock up on LoisCane   Sun May 30 2004 02:40 PM
. * * Re: Season Preparations to stock up on BabyCat   Mon May 31 2004 06:21 PM

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