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The broad Gulf area is now up to 70/70% for development while the Atlantic area is 10/30% for development. Neither are marked as an invest area yet, but the Gulf may be tagged later today. Texas should watch the Gulf area for a large rain event. Atlantic is FL through the Carolinas depending on how soon (if at all) the system develops, sooner implies further north.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 292 (Idalia) , Major: 292 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 292 (Idalia) Major: 292 (Idalia)

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News Talkback >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

Steve
Senior Storm Chaser

Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA

Here's an interesting excerpt from Joe B. this morning (LA & TX)...
Wed Jul 31 2002 12:32 PM

You just know that we were thinking of going to Pensacola this weekend. Bah humbug. I may have to cancel that trip if it sets up to be fun at home instead.

I wish to talk more about the tropics. A major wave is over central Africa now and represents the advance pulsing that we should see 6-10 days after the Pacific shuts down. Fine, but before we crank up the atlantic season, the northern gulf is the place to watch. If I had a lick of guts I would just say, we will have tropical development in the northern gulf this weekend and a west move. The pattern is dictating it with the ridge off the southeast coast and the western ridge combining and trapping a trof split over the northern gulf in the mid levels, while a nice juicy outflow highs builds over top. Here is the problem though: Will the surface low develop over water or over land? If it develops near 28 north then it moves west, its a big problem for Texas and Louisiana over the weekend or early next week. If it develops near 30 north or on land, then its just rainmaker and a wasted chance for a landfalling named storm. Now you may be saying, what the heck do you see down there that can warrant this? Well we have a warming atmosphere at outflow levels with a tropical wave that is arriving from the southeast to add low level warming. While it is warming aloft, it is doing it with a "spreading out" of the air under the mean ridge to the north. Plus we have a trof splitting going on. It is similar to what started Arthur, except its later in the season and it would move west. Suffice it to say big rain amounts will develop over the Florida panhandle tomorrow and Friday then spread west. No, I can not say for sure there will be a tropical cyclone, what I can say is the suspicions from yesterday, brought about by the overall pattern, are still there and perhaps a step further along. So if I am on the central and western gulf coast, I would be watching the weather. Further east, while it will rain alot, this will,not take off to the northeast.

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MF'n Super Bowl Champions

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
July Is Nearing End...	CFHC	Wed Jul 31 2002 12:32 PM
Re: July Is Nearing End...	Anonymous	Mon Aug 05 2002 01:10 AM
Diurnal convective minima?	Alex k	Sat Aug 03 2002 10:01 PM
Re: Diurnal convective minima?	57497479	Sat Aug 03 2002 11:37 PM
Check Out the Wave comong off of Africa	Cocoa Beach	Sat Aug 03 2002 08:25 PM
Re: July Is Nearing End...	MikeC	Sat Aug 03 2002 01:41 PM
Interesting NWS Melbourne forecast discussion excerpt.	Kevin	Sat Aug 03 2002 02:48 PM
Data Bouy Link	Cocoa Beach	Fri Aug 02 2002 06:02 PM
1.0 SAB Estimate for East Coast Low	Jason M	Fri Aug 02 2002 01:05 PM
Re: 1.0 SAB Estimate for East Coast Low	caneman	Fri Aug 02 2002 01:40 PM
I agree caneman...	Steve	Fri Aug 02 2002 02:10 PM
Re: 1.0 SAB Estimate for East Coast Low	Joe	Fri Aug 02 2002 02:05 PM
Two Ares of Interest	Jason M	Fri Aug 02 2002 11:48 AM
Updated Discussion	Jason M	Fri Aug 02 2002 01:26 AM
Re: July Is Nearing End...	Anonymous	Thu Aug 01 2002 11:46 PM
Re: July Is Nearing End...	Ricreig	Fri Aug 02 2002 03:11 PM
Re: July Is Nearing End...	Jeanine	Fri Aug 02 2002 10:37 PM
Re: July Is Nearing End...	Anonymous	Sat Aug 03 2002 04:10 PM
the real 98L	Anonymous (HF)	Sat Aug 03 2002 04:39 PM
Nice Little Ciculation	Greyman	Sat Aug 03 2002 05:42 PM
Re: Nice Little Ciculation	Joe	Sat Aug 03 2002 05:49 PM
Re: Nice Little Ciculation	andy1tom	Sat Aug 03 2002 08:34 PM
Re: Nice Little Ciculation	57497479	Sat Aug 03 2002 10:56 PM
definitely a spin	Alex K	Sat Aug 03 2002 03:21 PM
Hurricane?	ShawnS	Sat Aug 03 2002 03:51 PM
Re: definitely a spin	Mike	Sat Aug 03 2002 03:42 PM
Developement chances and peace.	Alex k	Sat Aug 03 2002 02:21 AM
Updated Tropical Weather Discussion!!!	Jason M	Fri Aug 02 2002 11:38 PM
Re: Updated Tropical Weather Discussion!!!	57497479	Sat Aug 03 2002 04:17 AM
Matthew	CFHC	Sat Aug 03 2002 10:30 AM
2 swirls of east coast?	Alex k	Fri Aug 02 2002 07:21 PM
Re: 2 swirls of east coast?	Joe	Fri Aug 02 2002 07:33 PM
Re: 2 swirls of east coast?	Ricreig	Fri Aug 02 2002 07:48 PM
the axis	Anonymous (HF)	Fri Aug 02 2002 08:29 PM
Re: the axis	Ricreig	Fri Aug 02 2002 08:37 PM
Re: the axis	Joe	Fri Aug 02 2002 08:56 PM
Re: 2 swirls of east coast?	Rasvar	Fri Aug 02 2002 07:59 PM
Anonymous	Cocoa Beach	Fri Aug 02 2002 05:53 PM
East Coast low/wave east of Windward Islands.	Kevin	Fri Aug 02 2002 03:59 PM
Re: East Coast low/wave east of Windward Islands.	Steve	Fri Aug 02 2002 04:38 PM
Re: East Coast low/wave east of Windward Islands.	Anonymous	Fri Aug 02 2002 05:02 PM
Model analysis....	wxman007	Fri Aug 02 2002 05:49 PM
Gulf System	ShawnS	Fri Aug 02 2002 06:15 PM
Re: Model analysis....	Matthew	Fri Aug 02 2002 06:07 PM
Updated Buoy Information...	Steve	Fri Aug 02 2002 06:18 PM
I think the nhc went to hell last year	Anonymous	Fri Aug 02 2002 06:43 PM
Re: I think the nhc went to hell last year	Ricreig	Fri Aug 02 2002 07:03 PM
Re: East Coast low/wave east of Windward Islands.	Anonymous(Bill)	Fri Aug 02 2002 05:46 PM
The gulf and southeast system	Matthew	Fri Aug 02 2002 05:45 PM
98L	Anonymous (HF)	Fri Aug 02 2002 03:52 PM
Re: 98L	Ricreig	Fri Aug 02 2002 03:57 PM
Recon Going in Tomorrow	Jason M	Fri Aug 02 2002 03:49 PM
Great link, Pressure is falling...	Cocoa Beach	Thu Aug 01 2002 10:24 PM
Re: Great link, Pressure is falling...	Steve	Thu Aug 01 2002 11:23 PM
Steve	Anonymous	Fri Aug 02 2002 01:37 AM
Who Said I Was A Real Met???	Jason M	Thu Aug 01 2002 06:52 AM
Re: Who Said I Was A Real Met???	Steve	Thu Aug 01 2002 12:05 PM
Updated Tropical Weather Discussion	Jason M	Sun Aug 04 2002 01:25 AM
Re: Updated Tropical Weather Discussion	ShawnS	Sun Aug 04 2002 02:33 AM
Re: Updated Tropical Weather Discussion	Anonymous-doug	Sun Aug 04 2002 10:57 AM
2002 theme	Anonymous (HF)	Sun Aug 04 2002 04:35 AM
Re: 2002 theme	Bruce	Sun Aug 04 2002 09:29 AM
Re: 2002 theme	Anonymous	Sun Aug 04 2002 07:59 AM
Re: Who Said I Was A Real Met???	wxman007	Thu Aug 01 2002 07:24 PM
uh	Anonymous (HF)	Thu Aug 01 2002 07:44 PM
Re: Who Said I Was A Real Met???	caneman	Thu Aug 01 2002 07:36 PM
Re: Who Said I Was A Real Met???	wxman007	Fri Aug 02 2002 03:52 AM
east?	Anonymous (HF)	Fri Aug 02 2002 05:47 AM
Re: east?	Anonymous	Fri Aug 02 2002 10:27 AM
That's too bad	Anonymous	Fri Aug 02 2002 12:27 PM
Re: That's too bad	CFHC	Fri Aug 02 2002 12:53 PM
some models are saying something for the gulf system.	Matthew	Fri Aug 02 2002 06:45 AM
Re: Who Said I Was A Real Met???	Steve	Thu Aug 01 2002 12:28 PM
Two Areas In the Short Term	Anonymous	Fri Aug 02 2002 10:53 AM
Re: Two Areas In the Short Term	Ricreig	Fri Aug 02 2002 03:52 PM
Re: Two Areas In the Short Term	Bruce	Fri Aug 02 2002 11:03 AM
Re: Who Said I Was A Real Met???	Jason M	Fri Aug 02 2002 01:28 AM
It's NOT a slow season yet!!!!	WXMAN RICHIE	Thu Aug 01 2002 01:27 PM
Re: Who Said I Was A Real Met???	Caneman	Thu Aug 01 2002 01:06 PM
Re: July Is Nearing End...	jim w	Thu Aug 01 2002 01:41 AM
august now	Anonymous (HF)	Thu Aug 01 2002 05:31 AM
Update on the Tropics!!!	Jason M	Wed Jul 31 2002 10:34 PM
Re: Update on the Tropics!!!	Joe	Thu Aug 01 2002 12:22 AM
Re: Update on the Tropics!!!	Steve	Thu Aug 01 2002 01:07 AM
Re: July Is Nearing End...	Anonymous	Wed Jul 31 2002 04:20 PM
El-Nono (yes, it's OFFICIAL), possible GOMEX spin-up, African wave, and what a local met said.	Kevin	Wed Jul 31 2002 04:49 PM
Coupla Features	Anonymous	Wed Jul 31 2002 02:56 PM
Re: July Is Nearing End...	Anonymous	Tue Jul 30 2002 04:05 PM
The Quiet Before The Storms	WXMAN RICHIE	Tue Jul 30 2002 10:44 PM
Re: The Quiet Before The Storms	57497479	Tue Jul 30 2002 11:26 PM
Re: The Quiet Before The Storms	Kevin	Wed Jul 31 2002 02:49 AM
Here's an interesting excerpt from Joe B. this morning (LA & TX)...	Steve	Wed Jul 31 2002 12:32 PM
Re: Here's an interesting excerpt from Joe B. this morning (LA & TX)...	anonymous	Wed Jul 31 2002 06:48 PM
Hey Shawn	Steve	Wed Jul 31 2002 08:19 PM
stuff	Anonymous (HF)	Wed Jul 31 2002 08:06 PM
Re: July Is Nearing End...	Anonymous	Tue Jul 30 2002 01:30 PM
central atl	Anonymous (HF)	Mon Jul 29 2002 07:36 PM
Re: central atl	Anonymous	Mon Jul 29 2002 08:31 PM
Re: central atl	MoparMitch	Mon Jul 29 2002 08:14 PM
Re: central atl	Steve	Mon Jul 29 2002 09:46 PM
Re: central atl	Anonymous (HF)	Tue Jul 30 2002 06:23 AM

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