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Invest 94L just northeast of the ABC islands in the Caribbean moving west, 20% development chance. Another area near the Cabo Verde islands has a 20% chance to develop over the next 7 days.

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News Talkback >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

Steve
Senior Storm Chaser

Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA

Here's an interesting excerpt from Joe B. this morning (LA & TX)...
Wed Jul 31 2002 08:32 AM

You just know that we were thinking of going to Pensacola this weekend. Bah humbug. I may have to cancel that trip if it sets up to be fun at home instead.

I wish to talk more about the tropics. A major wave is over central Africa now and represents the advance pulsing that we should see 6-10 days after the Pacific shuts down. Fine, but before we crank up the atlantic season, the northern gulf is the place to watch. If I had a lick of guts I would just say, we will have tropical development in the northern gulf this weekend and a west move. The pattern is dictating it with the ridge off the southeast coast and the western ridge combining and trapping a trof split over the northern gulf in the mid levels, while a nice juicy outflow highs builds over top. Here is the problem though: Will the surface low develop over water or over land? If it develops near 28 north then it moves west, its a big problem for Texas and Louisiana over the weekend or early next week. If it develops near 30 north or on land, then its just rainmaker and a wasted chance for a landfalling named storm. Now you may be saying, what the heck do you see down there that can warrant this? Well we have a warming atmosphere at outflow levels with a tropical wave that is arriving from the southeast to add low level warming. While it is warming aloft, it is doing it with a "spreading out" of the air under the mean ridge to the north. Plus we have a trof splitting going on. It is similar to what started Arthur, except its later in the season and it would move west. Suffice it to say big rain amounts will develop over the Florida panhandle tomorrow and Friday then spread west. No, I can not say for sure there will be a tropical cyclone, what I can say is the suspicions from yesterday, brought about by the overall pattern, are still there and perhaps a step further along. So if I am on the central and western gulf coast, I would be watching the weather. Further east, while it will rain alot, this will,not take off to the northeast.

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MF'n Super Bowl Champions

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
July Is Nearing End...	CFHC	Wed Jul 31 2002 08:32 AM
Re: July Is Nearing End...	Anonymous	Sun Aug 04 2002 09:10 PM
Diurnal convective minima?	Alex k	Sat Aug 03 2002 06:01 PM
Re: Diurnal convective minima?	57497479	Sat Aug 03 2002 07:37 PM
Check Out the Wave comong off of Africa	Cocoa Beach	Sat Aug 03 2002 04:25 PM
Re: July Is Nearing End...	MikeC	Sat Aug 03 2002 09:41 AM
Interesting NWS Melbourne forecast discussion excerpt.	Kevin	Sat Aug 03 2002 10:48 AM
Data Bouy Link	Cocoa Beach	Fri Aug 02 2002 02:02 PM
1.0 SAB Estimate for East Coast Low	Jason M	Fri Aug 02 2002 09:05 AM
Re: 1.0 SAB Estimate for East Coast Low	caneman	Fri Aug 02 2002 09:40 AM
I agree caneman...	Steve	Fri Aug 02 2002 10:10 AM
Re: 1.0 SAB Estimate for East Coast Low	Joe	Fri Aug 02 2002 10:05 AM
Two Ares of Interest	Jason M	Fri Aug 02 2002 07:48 AM
Updated Discussion	Jason M	Thu Aug 01 2002 09:26 PM
Re: July Is Nearing End...	Anonymous	Thu Aug 01 2002 07:46 PM
Re: July Is Nearing End...	Ricreig	Fri Aug 02 2002 11:11 AM
Re: July Is Nearing End...	Jeanine	Fri Aug 02 2002 06:37 PM
Re: July Is Nearing End...	Anonymous	Sat Aug 03 2002 12:10 PM
the real 98L	Anonymous (HF)	Sat Aug 03 2002 12:39 PM
Nice Little Ciculation	Greyman	Sat Aug 03 2002 01:42 PM
Re: Nice Little Ciculation	Joe	Sat Aug 03 2002 01:49 PM
Re: Nice Little Ciculation	andy1tom	Sat Aug 03 2002 04:34 PM
Re: Nice Little Ciculation	57497479	Sat Aug 03 2002 06:56 PM
definitely a spin	Alex K	Sat Aug 03 2002 11:21 AM
Hurricane?	ShawnS	Sat Aug 03 2002 11:51 AM
Re: definitely a spin	Mike	Sat Aug 03 2002 11:42 AM
Developement chances and peace.	Alex k	Fri Aug 02 2002 10:21 PM
Updated Tropical Weather Discussion!!!	Jason M	Fri Aug 02 2002 07:38 PM
Re: Updated Tropical Weather Discussion!!!	57497479	Sat Aug 03 2002 12:17 AM
Matthew	CFHC	Sat Aug 03 2002 06:30 AM
2 swirls of east coast?	Alex k	Fri Aug 02 2002 03:21 PM
Re: 2 swirls of east coast?	Joe	Fri Aug 02 2002 03:33 PM
Re: 2 swirls of east coast?	Ricreig	Fri Aug 02 2002 03:48 PM
the axis	Anonymous (HF)	Fri Aug 02 2002 04:29 PM
Re: the axis	Ricreig	Fri Aug 02 2002 04:37 PM
Re: the axis	Joe	Fri Aug 02 2002 04:56 PM
Re: 2 swirls of east coast?	Rasvar	Fri Aug 02 2002 03:59 PM
Anonymous	Cocoa Beach	Fri Aug 02 2002 01:53 PM
East Coast low/wave east of Windward Islands.	Kevin	Fri Aug 02 2002 11:59 AM
Re: East Coast low/wave east of Windward Islands.	Steve	Fri Aug 02 2002 12:38 PM
Re: East Coast low/wave east of Windward Islands.	Anonymous	Fri Aug 02 2002 01:02 PM
Model analysis....	wxman007	Fri Aug 02 2002 01:49 PM
Gulf System	ShawnS	Fri Aug 02 2002 02:15 PM
Re: Model analysis....	Matthew	Fri Aug 02 2002 02:07 PM
Updated Buoy Information...	Steve	Fri Aug 02 2002 02:18 PM
I think the nhc went to hell last year	Anonymous	Fri Aug 02 2002 02:43 PM
Re: I think the nhc went to hell last year	Ricreig	Fri Aug 02 2002 03:03 PM
Re: East Coast low/wave east of Windward Islands.	Anonymous(Bill)	Fri Aug 02 2002 01:46 PM
The gulf and southeast system	Matthew	Fri Aug 02 2002 01:45 PM
98L	Anonymous (HF)	Fri Aug 02 2002 11:52 AM
Re: 98L	Ricreig	Fri Aug 02 2002 11:57 AM
Recon Going in Tomorrow	Jason M	Fri Aug 02 2002 11:49 AM
Great link, Pressure is falling...	Cocoa Beach	Thu Aug 01 2002 06:24 PM
Re: Great link, Pressure is falling...	Steve	Thu Aug 01 2002 07:23 PM
Steve	Anonymous	Thu Aug 01 2002 09:37 PM
Who Said I Was A Real Met???	Jason M	Thu Aug 01 2002 02:52 AM
Re: Who Said I Was A Real Met???	Steve	Thu Aug 01 2002 08:05 AM
Updated Tropical Weather Discussion	Jason M	Sat Aug 03 2002 09:25 PM
Re: Updated Tropical Weather Discussion	ShawnS	Sat Aug 03 2002 10:33 PM
Re: Updated Tropical Weather Discussion	Anonymous-doug	Sun Aug 04 2002 06:57 AM
2002 theme	Anonymous (HF)	Sun Aug 04 2002 12:35 AM
Re: 2002 theme	Bruce	Sun Aug 04 2002 05:29 AM
Re: 2002 theme	Anonymous	Sun Aug 04 2002 03:59 AM
Re: Who Said I Was A Real Met???	wxman007	Thu Aug 01 2002 03:24 PM
uh	Anonymous (HF)	Thu Aug 01 2002 03:44 PM
Re: Who Said I Was A Real Met???	caneman	Thu Aug 01 2002 03:36 PM
Re: Who Said I Was A Real Met???	wxman007	Thu Aug 01 2002 11:52 PM
east?	Anonymous (HF)	Fri Aug 02 2002 01:47 AM
Re: east?	Anonymous	Fri Aug 02 2002 06:27 AM
That's too bad	Anonymous	Fri Aug 02 2002 08:27 AM
Re: That's too bad	CFHC	Fri Aug 02 2002 08:53 AM
some models are saying something for the gulf system.	Matthew	Fri Aug 02 2002 02:45 AM
Re: Who Said I Was A Real Met???	Steve	Thu Aug 01 2002 08:28 AM
Two Areas In the Short Term	Anonymous	Fri Aug 02 2002 06:53 AM
Re: Two Areas In the Short Term	Ricreig	Fri Aug 02 2002 11:52 AM
Re: Two Areas In the Short Term	Bruce	Fri Aug 02 2002 07:03 AM
Re: Who Said I Was A Real Met???	Jason M	Thu Aug 01 2002 09:28 PM
It's NOT a slow season yet!!!!	WXMAN RICHIE	Thu Aug 01 2002 09:27 AM
Re: Who Said I Was A Real Met???	Caneman	Thu Aug 01 2002 09:06 AM
Re: July Is Nearing End...	jim w	Wed Jul 31 2002 09:41 PM
august now	Anonymous (HF)	Thu Aug 01 2002 01:31 AM
Update on the Tropics!!!	Jason M	Wed Jul 31 2002 06:34 PM
Re: Update on the Tropics!!!	Joe	Wed Jul 31 2002 08:22 PM
Re: Update on the Tropics!!!	Steve	Wed Jul 31 2002 09:07 PM
Re: July Is Nearing End...	Anonymous	Wed Jul 31 2002 12:20 PM
El-Nono (yes, it's OFFICIAL), possible GOMEX spin-up, African wave, and what a local met said.	Kevin	Wed Jul 31 2002 12:49 PM
Coupla Features	Anonymous	Wed Jul 31 2002 10:56 AM
Re: July Is Nearing End...	Anonymous	Tue Jul 30 2002 12:05 PM
The Quiet Before The Storms	WXMAN RICHIE	Tue Jul 30 2002 06:44 PM
Re: The Quiet Before The Storms	57497479	Tue Jul 30 2002 07:26 PM
Re: The Quiet Before The Storms	Kevin	Tue Jul 30 2002 10:49 PM
Here's an interesting excerpt from Joe B. this morning (LA & TX)...	Steve	Wed Jul 31 2002 08:32 AM
Re: Here's an interesting excerpt from Joe B. this morning (LA & TX)...	anonymous	Wed Jul 31 2002 02:48 PM
Hey Shawn	Steve	Wed Jul 31 2002 04:19 PM
stuff	Anonymous (HF)	Wed Jul 31 2002 04:06 PM
Re: July Is Nearing End...	Anonymous	Tue Jul 30 2002 09:30 AM
central atl	Anonymous (HF)	Mon Jul 29 2002 03:36 PM
Re: central atl	Anonymous	Mon Jul 29 2002 04:31 PM
Re: central atl	MoparMitch	Mon Jul 29 2002 04:14 PM
Re: central atl	Steve	Mon Jul 29 2002 05:46 PM
Re: central atl	Anonymous (HF)	Tue Jul 30 2002 02:23 AM

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