July Is Nearing End... - FLHurricane.com

FORECAST POSTED: 8/01/02/ 9:15 PM EDT

ATLANTIC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK:

Gulf of Mexico Development???

Here are the latest forecast tracks from the models.

The CMC, MM5 and MRF models are ain close agreement for a more northerly track. These models take the developing low into the Gulf of Mexico and then inland between southeast Louisiana and Pensacola, Florida. They show a stronger ridge to the north than yesterday. They also move the ridge faster than the other models. Therefore, they're forecasting a more northerly track.

Both the UKMET and ECMWF take the low between Corpus Christi and Houston. the models show slow development as the low moves west. The UKMET shows a moderate increase in strength just before landfall.

The NOGAPS model doesn't show much in the way of tropical development. This can be expected since the NOGAPS model is usually the most conservative compared to the other models. NOGAPS takes the low closer to land and it doesn't give the low alot of room to develop. The model is forecasting a big rain event across the state of Lousiana with the center of circulation moving inland over central Louisiana.

The AVN is the only model that takes the low back into the Florida panhandle. The model shows the low moving northeast, along a weakness in the atmosphere, east of the ridge to the north. The model doesn't give the low much time to develop either.

All of the models except for NOGAPS, take the low farther south than yesterday's model runs. This is because they are forecasting the ridge to the north to move farther south. The models are also split as to whether or noth the low will continue moving west towards Texas and a more northerly track between southeast Louisiana and extreme western Florida. This depends on the strength and speed of the high to the north.

I do believe that the chances of tropical development are rising. In fact, I think this one has a pretty good shot at becoming a tropical storm. An anticyclone is expected to build over the Gulf of Mexico, causing the vertical wind shear to begin to diminish. With 90 degree water temperatures, no wind shear and increasing moisture, I don't see why this low would have a hard time developing into at least a minimal tropical storm. Now land will be an inhibiting factor. However, as I said the models are taking the low farther south than yesterday's runs.

A low should emerge off the Florida coast in 24-36 hours. The low should then begin to drift west and should be SSE of New Orleans in roughly 48 hours. Assuming that the low continues a westerly movement, the center should be south of central Louisiana in 72 hours. What happens after that is highly uncertain. I really don't see this being much of a problem for Florida. But anyone living from Brownsville to Mobile should continue to closely monitor this developing low. I am not saying that Florida should forget about the low. But I do feel that FLA will be in the clear this time.

Is development certain? Of course not. But I do think that this one has a good shot at becoming our next named storm.

The rest of the Atlantic basin is quiet...for now. The models are hinting on some possible development near the Bahamas but I am not concerned yet. I will go into more detail on this area tomorrow IF the potential still exists.

The rest of the Atlantic is quiet. The Bermuda is much farther south than average. This is in response to the subtropical low over the central Atlantic. Until the low moves NEWD and out of the picture, the central Atlantic will continue to be covered in sinking air (subsidence).

There are three decent waves over the continent of Africa this evening. This may be the beginning of the African wave train. It will be interesting to see what happpens to these waves once the emerge off the coast. Usually the last one to move off has the greatest potential for development. This is because the waves out ahead of the last one, casuses an increase in the moisture levels across the eastern Atlantic. All three waves have potential but the last one has the better chance. I will be closely monitoring these waves over the next few days as conditions are forecasted to become increasingly favorable for development. Its just a matter of time!

FORECASTER: Jason Moreland

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DISCLAIMER: THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE LISTEN TO YOUR LOCAL NEWS OR THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

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