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NHC advisories to begin shortly on Storm 01L (Potential Tropical Cyclone 01L) in the Western Gulf. Elsewhere, low east of Bahamas being tracked.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 293 (Idalia) , Major: 293 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 293 (Idalia) Major: 293 (Idalia)
Ptnl One
ADV#3 5:00 am EDT
21.3N 93.0W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 999mb
Moving:
N at 6 mph
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General Discussion >> Hurricane History
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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Hurricane Prediction
      Fri Jun 11 2004 11:11 PM

I think that everyone underpredicted 1995 - remember, 1995 ended up being the second most active year in the Atlantic basin. On the other side of the coin, everyone overpredicted 1997 - the year with one of the strongest El Nino events ever recorded. However, even after the significant downturn in activity of 1997, Dr Gray still felt that the Atlantic basin had started its multidecadal upswing in tropical cyclone activity - and so far he has been remarkably correct.

This upswing in activity is currently projected to last until about 2020. If you are addicted to storm tracking, that means about 17 more seasons (including this one) of higher than average activity. The sobering side is that the locations with a high frequency of landfalls in the 1940s and 1950s will be under the same threat until this current cycle ends.
ED

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Hurricane Prediction James88 Fri Jun 11 2004 11:11 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Prediction Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Jun 11 2004 11:11 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Prediction HanKFranK   Sat Jun 12 2004 03:00 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Prediction LI Phil   Tue Jun 15 2004 03:30 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Prediction James88   Tue Jun 15 2004 04:03 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Prediction Rob_M   Tue Jun 15 2004 08:20 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Prediction James88   Tue Jun 15 2004 09:34 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Prediction LI Phil   Tue Jun 15 2004 09:55 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Prediction James88   Tue Jun 15 2004 10:00 PM
. * * Unisys LI Phil   Wed Jun 16 2004 02:53 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Prediction Rob_M   Fri Jun 11 2004 08:40 PM

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