July Is Nearing End... - FLHurricane.com

First Indications of a low trying to develop

First of all, there are pressure drops between Tampa and Tallahassee. Now the other surrounding buoys are probably reporting some pressure falls as well. But I am focusing on KTNF1 and CDRF1. Latest pressure readings from KTNF1 (The one closer to Tallahassee) is reporting 29.90 inches and steady. The other buoy is at 29.90 also but the tendency has been -0.02. Nothing major...yet. You can also see some signs of a possible weak circulation if you look closely at the shortwave IR loop.

Also Watch the East Coast...

Now the chances of development are unlikely but it is an area of interest. Pressure in the area is about 29.90 inches and steady.

MSAS DEPICTING CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE CONV ACROSS ATLC WATERS...AND

RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOWING PLENTY OF CONVECTION JUST OFFSHR SC

COAST. CLOUD TOPS STILL NEAR -55C...WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.

THIS IS IN AN AREA OF CONFLUENT FLOW...WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF A

WEAK SFC LOW FORMING OFFSHR OF THE CWA.

THE DEEP-LAYERED LOW OFFSHR THE CWA SHOWS SOME CHANGES THIS CYCLE.

THE UPPER LEVEL PORTION WEAKENS AS IT DRIFTS NE TODAY...WHILE A NEW

TROF MOVES IN FROM THE NW BY TNGT...CONTINUES NEARBY SAT...THEN BACK

NW BY SUN AS ATLC RIDGE STARTS TO POKE IN. ACROSS THE LOW AND MID

LEVELS...THE LOW BECOMES ELONGATED NE-SW TO THE S OF THE CWA...AS

RIDGE TO THE N GRADUALLY BUILDS E TOWARD THE MID-ATLC REGION. A NEW

LOW EVENTUALLY TRIES TO FORM IN THE GULF OF MEX AND RETROGRADE

W...ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO THE N TO PUSH INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT

WEEK. AT THE SFC...RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE ATLC THE NEXT SVRL

DAYS...WITH INVERTED TROF SETTING UP OFFSHR TO THE E AND SE. BIG

UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW QUICKLY THAT TROF WILL SHIFT FROM OFFSHR

TOWARD THE COAST...WITH THE AVN MUCH QUICKER WITH THE ASSOCIATED

RETURN FLOW MOISTURE. FOR NOW PREFER TO MAINTAIN A BLEND OF THE

WETTER AVN WITH THE DRIER ETA/NGM.

BETTER MOISTURE TO REMAIN ACROSS GA CWA THAN SC THE NEXT FEW

DAYS...SO WILL GO WITH SLGTLY HIER POPS S THAN N. LITTLE OR NO +VV

EXPECTED...WITH MAIN LOW LEVEL FORCING FROM ATLC SEA BREEZE AND FROM

DAYTIME HEATING (WHICH WILL BE SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED DUE TO ONSHORE

FLOW). IF SFC TROF DOES MOVE INTO THE AREA IT WOULD NOT BE UNTIL

SUN...BUT WILL AGAIN GO WITH SLGTLY HIER POPS IN GA DURING THAT

TIME. TEMPS THRU THE WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH ONLY ABOUT A

5 DEGREE RANGE IN TEMPS FROM COAST TO INLAND.

FOR NEXT WEEK...SFC LOW THAT FORMS IN THE GULF OVER THE WEEKEND

MOVES FURTHER W...TAKING ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH IT. WITH A

DEEPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPING...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SMALL.

TEMPS WILL SLOWLY START TO CLIMB ONCE AGAIN WITH A MORE SW OR W LOW

LEVEL FLOW RETURNING.

MARINE...WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS THRU THE FCST PERIOD...ALTHO I

AM CONCERNED WITH ETA FCST OF OCC'L 20 KT. WINDS WILL BE HIEST OVER

N PORTION THE NEXT FEW FCST PERIODS...WITH GENERALLY NE-E WINDS EACH

DAY...BACKING TO MORE NE AT NIGHT. WINDS TO SHIFT TO A MORE S'ERLY

COMPONENT NEXT WEEK.

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