Yeah James88, what you're seeing is for real. That wave even looks to have some circulation. Nothing Earth-shattering but it's a pretty decent wave considering we're only on July 5th.
FWIW, I also looked at the 1000mb 372 hour GFS on AWPro. This particular model run actually amplifies some of this convection just before reaching the Caribbean on July 13. Take this for what it is worth...
On another note...the GFS also shows a decrease in shear across most of the Atlantic. The exception to this is the eastern Atlantic, which still has a few patchy areas around 372 hours. This is a long way out, but we should start seeing a decrease in shear towards the end of July if we are indeed going to have the season start up around the climotological norm.
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