July Is Nearing End... - FLHurricane.com

The forecaster said, "MSAS analysis show a sfc reflection with this feature as well with a weak closed sfc low possibly forming just off the tpa coast. Lastest radar supports a possible low/mid lvl center forming...as notable cyclonic turning is seen in radar echoes west of tpa."

This discussion was done at 3 AM last night. I've run some loops and looked at a recent QUIKSCAT pass and it does appear we have a very weak surface low just west of tampa that is closed off. The convection that is forming out there also looks to be very circular in it's organization...this one may develop into a TD by late tommorrow or Monday but there are question to be asked:
1. Does it holds it's convection at night?
2. Does it keep developing convection?
3. Does the low strengthen causing significant pressure drops and wind increases at GOMEX buoys?
4. Most importantly: DOES IT STAY AWAY FROM LAND?
I believe we may have a hurricane on our hands here eventually but there are those four questions that will have to be answered. Today and tommorrow (Monday will be very important if it develops) should bring us answers and possible rapid development.

Interesting to see how the situation flip-flopped here...we have the low in the GOMEX developing more so we really won't see any development off of the EC any time soon. It's lost it's upper-level support and any GOMEX development will shear it.

There is a large area of convection elongated west to east across the Eastern Atlantic, a sign that the wave train is starting to roll. The waters are also becoming more favorable in temperature as the area of convection seems to be holding together over water. Cape Verde season's coming for sure.

It is important to note that I start my freshman year in high school Monday. This means posts will be sporadic during slow periods in the tropics (these may be running low now). If there is a big threat or storm threatning the U.S. you can bet your ass I'll be here to make a forecast and discuss what's going on. Basically I can't pick on blobs all day anymore (that's boring!

). But when things get nasty and unpleasant later this month and into September and October I'll be here. Look for my posts to mainly take place on the weekends for now.

Kevin

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