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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

Rob_M
Weather Hobbyist

Reged:
Posts: 60
Loc: Cary, NC

Hey All
Sat Jul 10 2004 11:17 AM

Finally back after week's absence...guess I didn't miss too much.

Still catching up on everything but I wouldn't get excited about the GOM disturbance. Convection is still being enhanced by shear aloft...sort of the same non-tropical situation as with the GOM low we tracked a few weeks ago. With this one, steering flow suggests a more westward track, but again, just some ULL-enhanced convection. Nothing that poses a threat to develop into a TC.

Over the past week, we've seen stronger tropical waves traverse the Mean Development Region. The apparent boom in tropical wave activity is in part due to the negative MJO pulse moving over the area...later this month a positive MJO will take over and we'll probably see things die down a bit. The next negative MJO, if timing is right, should come around the second half of August...PERFECT timing for everything to break loose. I still think there's a decent chance of Alex forming later this month in the Mean Development Region just before the negative MJO exits...GFS still picks up on lows east of the Windward Islands in the long-range, we'll see if continues to for many runs to come, persistence of course is the big key.

Also want to mention that a real dull start does NOT correlate to a duller season. Some hyperactive seasons (with NTC above 150%) where the first named storm didn't form until sometime after July 15 include 1950, 1955, 1961, 1969, and 1998. Most of those years really didn't take off until the end of August...again, we're talking about big dawg years here. What happens in the first 2 (or even 2.5) months has no relationship with what happens around the peak or later in the season.

--------------------
Rob Mann
IndependentWx.Com

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Watching Activity Near Bermuda	MikeC	Sat Jul 10 2004 11:17 AM
Re: Watching Activity Near Bermuda	Cycloneye	Thu Jul 08 2004 01:05 PM
Re: Watching Activity Near Bermuda	James88	Thu Jul 08 2004 01:18 PM
Re: Watching Activity Near Bermuda	Rich B	Thu Jul 08 2004 01:50 PM
Re: Watching Activity Near Bermuda	James88	Thu Jul 08 2004 01:55 PM
Re: Watching Activity Near Bermuda	LI Phil	Thu Jul 08 2004 03:04 PM
Re: Watching Activity Near Bermuda	Jamiewx	Thu Jul 08 2004 03:18 PM
Re: Watching Activity Near Bermuda	Rich B	Thu Jul 08 2004 04:24 PM
Re: Watching Activity Near Bermuda	doug	Thu Jul 08 2004 04:40 PM
Re: Watching Activity Near Bermuda	Rich B	Thu Jul 08 2004 05:43 PM
Re: Watching Activity Near Bermuda	LI Phil	Thu Jul 08 2004 05:53 PM
Re: Watching Activity Near Bermuda	javlin	Thu Jul 08 2004 06:59 PM
gfs chills out	HanKFranK	Thu Jul 08 2004 10:17 PM
96L flares up	James88	Fri Jul 09 2004 11:18 AM
Re: 96L flares up	doug	Fri Jul 09 2004 12:16 PM
Re: 96L flares up	Steve	Fri Jul 09 2004 03:19 PM
Re: 96L flares up	javlin	Fri Jul 09 2004 03:32 PM
Re: 96L flares up	summercyclone	Fri Jul 09 2004 05:12 PM
Re: 96L flares up	James88	Fri Jul 09 2004 05:26 PM
Mess in the Yucatan	LI Phil	Fri Jul 09 2004 07:18 PM
Re: Mess in the Yucatan DELETED	javlin	Fri Jul 09 2004 08:13 PM
Re: Mess in the Yucatan	LI Phil	Fri Jul 09 2004 08:21 PM
Re: Mess in the Yucatan	javlin	Sat Jul 10 2004 01:29 AM
Hey All	Rob_M	Sat Jul 10 2004 11:17 AM
Re: Hey All	LI Phil	Sat Jul 10 2004 12:21 PM
Re: Hey All	James88	Sat Jul 10 2004 01:38 PM
Re: Hey All	rmbjoe1954	Sat Jul 10 2004 03:22 PM
Re: Hey All	anonymous	Sat Jul 10 2004 05:49 PM
RE:NHC DISCUSSION	LONNY307	Wed Jul 14 2004 08:16 PM
Re: RE:NHC DISCUSSION	JasonM603	Wed Jul 14 2004 10:17 PM
Re: Hey All	James88	Sat Jul 10 2004 03:49 PM
Re: Hey All	Old Sailor	Sat Jul 10 2004 04:17 PM
Re: Hey All	Anonymous	Sat Jul 10 2004 04:20 PM
Re: Hey All	Rabbit	Sat Jul 10 2004 05:02 PM
Re: Hey All	Old Sailor	Sat Jul 10 2004 05:17 PM
Re: Hey All	LI Phil	Sat Jul 10 2004 05:14 PM
Re: Hey All	rmbjoe1954	Sat Jul 10 2004 05:21 PM
Re: Hey All	LI Phil	Sat Jul 10 2004 05:26 PM
Re: Hey All	Old Sailor	Sat Jul 10 2004 05:43 PM
Re: Hey All	Rabbit	Sat Jul 10 2004 05:07 PM
My Prediction for FY2004	rmbjoe1954	Sat Jul 10 2004 05:00 PM
Re: 96L flares up	Steve	Fri Jul 09 2004 03:53 PM
Re: 96L flares up	James88	Fri Jul 09 2004 04:11 PM
Keep watching 95L	LI Phil	Fri Jul 09 2004 04:56 PM
Re: Keep watching 95L	James88	Fri Jul 09 2004 05:02 PM
Curvature over the Yucatan	Bobbi	Fri Jul 09 2004 04:37 PM
Re: 96L flares up	Rabbit	Fri Jul 09 2004 03:53 PM
Re: 96L flares up	James88	Fri Jul 09 2004 03:31 PM
Vitriole...	Steve	Thu Jul 08 2004 04:39 PM
Re: Watching Activity Near Bermuda	doug	Thu Jul 08 2004 12:42 PM
Re: Watching Activity Near Bermuda	James88	Thu Jul 08 2004 12:48 PM
Re: Watching Activity Near Bermuda	Rabbit	Thu Jul 08 2004 12:52 PM
Re: Watching Activity Near Bermuda	LI Phil	Thu Jul 08 2004 12:34 PM

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