Can everyone please relax a bit and take a break from all the specialization of hurricane prognosis. Stop with the mjo and the dust and the constant worrying about the MAO and the negative tilts and just rely a bit on climo. In the end climo usually rules out.
I seriously doubt we will get to August 1st without a system with cords. Some little cloud puff somewhere will eventually spin enough to get something going as the water warm up across the basin.
Something about the way the system looked over the yucatan Friday before it moved to fast through the BOC and the way the wave moving too slowly ne of PR makes me think that the pattern is becomming more tropical, more in tune with the start of the season.
I'd say we are within ten days of something happening, late July though when I wouldn't venture to say.
For now.. enjoy the day, watch the clouds, sit in front of a fan or under a tree, read a book, listen to music, eat a fudgesicle and relax... its going to happen sooner or later and if I'm going to bet my money then it will be on climo not initials and worrying weathermen shooting the breeze all over the web and back again.
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What did I miss here.. why do you think there will be nothing til August?
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