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The broad Gulf area is now up to 70/70% for development while the Atlantic area is 10/30% for development. Neither are marked as an invest area yet, but the Gulf may be tagged later today. Texas should watch the Gulf area for a large rain event. Atlantic is FL through the Carolinas depending on how soon (if at all) the system develops, sooner implies further north.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 292 (Idalia) , Major: 292 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 292 (Idalia) Major: 292 (Idalia)
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News Talkback >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback
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Jason M
Weather Watcher


Reged:
Posts: 39
Loc: New Orleans
Updated Tropical Weather Discussion
      Sun Aug 04 2002 01:25 AM

FORECAST POSTED: 8/03/02/ 9:00 PM EDT

ATLANTIC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK:

A lot of uncertainty tonight...

I will not include all of the model forecasts in my discussion tonight. The majority of the models develop a low center too far east. A center is very evident on satellite imagery over the central Gulf. In fact, this is a Mid Level Circulation (MLC) located between 5,000 and 10,000 feet up in the atmosphere. Now besides the decline of convection, there hasn't been a whole lot of change over the past 24 hours. The reason for the disorganization, is because of the lack of convection. Well why is there a lack of convection? We have an upper low to the west of the MLC. This upper low is causing a lot of vertical shear over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Therefore, any convection does develop around the center gets blown off.

Now this upper low is forecasted to continue moving west. In addition, an upper level ridge of high pressure is still forecasted to develop over the low, making the conditions for development a little more favorable. Now I must say, the chances of development are a bit lower than they were yesterday. However, I am not saying that this low no longer has the chance of development. If the shear does weaken as forecasted, we may begin to see some development. But let me remind you that development, if any, would be extremely slow to occur.

The forecast track has also become more uncertain. We can't heavily rely on the models because #1 they are MODELS and #2 they show a low developing to far EAST. So until the models can get a better handle on the situation, I am still going with yesterday's forecast track. A slow north to NNW drift can be anticipated over the next few days. Heavy rain will move over areas like Pensacola, Mobile, Biloxi, Gulfport and eventually New Orleans. Alabama and extreme western Florida will be on the wet side first. Then the ridge to the north will begin to have a greter impact on the low by pushing the system more to the west.

There isn't a whole lot more that I can say...its just a wait and see kinda thing. I will try my best to update the discussion twice. a day. The next discussion is scheduled for 6:00 AM eastern time.

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DISCLAIMER: THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE LISTEN TO YOUR LOCAL NEWS OR THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

http://www.tropicalweatherwatchers.com

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* July Is Nearing End... CFHCAdministrator Sun Aug 04 2002 01:25 AM
. * * Re: July Is Nearing End... Anonymous   Mon Aug 05 2002 01:10 AM
. * * Diurnal convective minima? Alex k   Sat Aug 03 2002 10:01 PM
. * * Re: Diurnal convective minima? 57497479   Sat Aug 03 2002 11:37 PM
. * * Check Out the Wave comong off of Africa Cocoa Beach   Sat Aug 03 2002 08:25 PM
. * * Re: July Is Nearing End... MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 03 2002 01:41 PM
. * * Interesting NWS Melbourne forecast discussion excerpt. Kevin   Sat Aug 03 2002 02:48 PM
. * * Data Bouy Link Cocoa Beach   Fri Aug 02 2002 06:02 PM
. * * 1.0 SAB Estimate for East Coast Low Jason M   Fri Aug 02 2002 01:05 PM
. * * Re: 1.0 SAB Estimate for East Coast Low caneman   Fri Aug 02 2002 01:40 PM
. * * I agree caneman... Steve   Fri Aug 02 2002 02:10 PM
. * * Re: 1.0 SAB Estimate for East Coast Low Joe   Fri Aug 02 2002 02:05 PM
. * * Two Ares of Interest Jason M   Fri Aug 02 2002 11:48 AM
. * * Updated Discussion Jason M   Fri Aug 02 2002 01:26 AM
. * * Re: July Is Nearing End... Anonymous   Thu Aug 01 2002 11:46 PM
. * * Re: July Is Nearing End... Ricreig   Fri Aug 02 2002 03:11 PM
. * * Re: July Is Nearing End... Jeanine   Fri Aug 02 2002 10:37 PM
. * * Re: July Is Nearing End... Anonymous   Sat Aug 03 2002 04:10 PM
. * * the real 98L Anonymous (HF)   Sat Aug 03 2002 04:39 PM
. * * Nice Little Ciculation Greyman   Sat Aug 03 2002 05:42 PM
. * * Re: Nice Little Ciculation Joe   Sat Aug 03 2002 05:49 PM
. * * Re: Nice Little Ciculation andy1tom   Sat Aug 03 2002 08:34 PM
. * * Re: Nice Little Ciculation 57497479   Sat Aug 03 2002 10:56 PM
. * * definitely a spin Alex K   Sat Aug 03 2002 03:21 PM
. * * Hurricane? ShawnS   Sat Aug 03 2002 03:51 PM
. * * Re: definitely a spin Mike   Sat Aug 03 2002 03:42 PM
. * * Developement chances and peace. Alex k   Sat Aug 03 2002 02:21 AM
. * * Updated Tropical Weather Discussion!!! Jason M   Fri Aug 02 2002 11:38 PM
. * * Re: Updated Tropical Weather Discussion!!! 57497479   Sat Aug 03 2002 04:17 AM
. * * Matthew CFHCAdministrator   Sat Aug 03 2002 10:30 AM
. * * 2 swirls of east coast? Alex k   Fri Aug 02 2002 07:21 PM
. * * Re: 2 swirls of east coast? Joe   Fri Aug 02 2002 07:33 PM
. * * Re: 2 swirls of east coast? Ricreig   Fri Aug 02 2002 07:48 PM
. * * the axis Anonymous (HF)   Fri Aug 02 2002 08:29 PM
. * * Re: the axis Ricreig   Fri Aug 02 2002 08:37 PM
. * * Re: the axis Joe   Fri Aug 02 2002 08:56 PM
. * * Re: 2 swirls of east coast? Rasvar   Fri Aug 02 2002 07:59 PM
. * * Anonymous Cocoa Beach   Fri Aug 02 2002 05:53 PM
. * * East Coast low/wave east of Windward Islands. Kevin   Fri Aug 02 2002 03:59 PM
. * * Re: East Coast low/wave east of Windward Islands. Steve   Fri Aug 02 2002 04:38 PM
. * * Re: East Coast low/wave east of Windward Islands. Anonymous   Fri Aug 02 2002 05:02 PM
. * * Model analysis.... wxman007   Fri Aug 02 2002 05:49 PM
. * * Gulf System ShawnS   Fri Aug 02 2002 06:15 PM
. * * Re: Model analysis.... Matthew   Fri Aug 02 2002 06:07 PM
. * * Updated Buoy Information... Steve   Fri Aug 02 2002 06:18 PM
. * * I think the nhc went to hell last year Anonymous   Fri Aug 02 2002 06:43 PM
. * * Re: I think the nhc went to hell last year Ricreig   Fri Aug 02 2002 07:03 PM
. * * Re: East Coast low/wave east of Windward Islands. Anonymous(Bill)   Fri Aug 02 2002 05:46 PM
. * * The gulf and southeast system Matthew   Fri Aug 02 2002 05:45 PM
. * * 98L Anonymous (HF)   Fri Aug 02 2002 03:52 PM
. * * Re: 98L Ricreig   Fri Aug 02 2002 03:57 PM
. * * Recon Going in Tomorrow Jason M   Fri Aug 02 2002 03:49 PM
. * * Great link, Pressure is falling... Cocoa Beach   Thu Aug 01 2002 10:24 PM
. * * Re: Great link, Pressure is falling... Steve   Thu Aug 01 2002 11:23 PM
. * * Steve Anonymous   Fri Aug 02 2002 01:37 AM
. * * Who Said I Was A Real Met??? Jason M   Thu Aug 01 2002 06:52 AM
. * * Re: Who Said I Was A Real Met??? Steve   Thu Aug 01 2002 12:05 PM
. * * Updated Tropical Weather Discussion Jason M   Sun Aug 04 2002 01:25 AM
. * * Re: Updated Tropical Weather Discussion ShawnS   Sun Aug 04 2002 02:33 AM
. * * Re: Updated Tropical Weather Discussion Anonymous-doug   Sun Aug 04 2002 10:57 AM
. * * 2002 theme Anonymous (HF)   Sun Aug 04 2002 04:35 AM
. * * Re: 2002 theme Bruce   Sun Aug 04 2002 09:29 AM
. * * Re: 2002 theme Anonymous   Sun Aug 04 2002 07:59 AM
. * * Re: Who Said I Was A Real Met??? wxman007   Thu Aug 01 2002 07:24 PM
. * * uh Anonymous (HF)   Thu Aug 01 2002 07:44 PM
. * * Re: Who Said I Was A Real Met??? caneman   Thu Aug 01 2002 07:36 PM
. * * Re: Who Said I Was A Real Met??? wxman007   Fri Aug 02 2002 03:52 AM
. * * east? Anonymous (HF)   Fri Aug 02 2002 05:47 AM
. * * Re: east? Anonymous   Fri Aug 02 2002 10:27 AM
. * * That's too bad Anonymous   Fri Aug 02 2002 12:27 PM
. * * Re: That's too bad CFHCAdministrator   Fri Aug 02 2002 12:53 PM
. * * some models are saying something for the gulf system. Matthew   Fri Aug 02 2002 06:45 AM
. * * Re: Who Said I Was A Real Met??? Steve   Thu Aug 01 2002 12:28 PM
. * * Two Areas In the Short Term Anonymous   Fri Aug 02 2002 10:53 AM
. * * Re: Two Areas In the Short Term Ricreig   Fri Aug 02 2002 03:52 PM
. * * Re: Two Areas In the Short Term Bruce   Fri Aug 02 2002 11:03 AM
. * * Re: Who Said I Was A Real Met??? Jason M   Fri Aug 02 2002 01:28 AM
. * * It's NOT a slow season yet!!!! WXMAN RICHIE   Thu Aug 01 2002 01:27 PM
. * * Re: Who Said I Was A Real Met??? Caneman   Thu Aug 01 2002 01:06 PM
. * * Re: July Is Nearing End... jim w   Thu Aug 01 2002 01:41 AM
. * * august now Anonymous (HF)   Thu Aug 01 2002 05:31 AM
. * * Update on the Tropics!!! Jason M   Wed Jul 31 2002 10:34 PM
. * * Re: Update on the Tropics!!! Joe   Thu Aug 01 2002 12:22 AM
. * * Re: Update on the Tropics!!! Steve   Thu Aug 01 2002 01:07 AM
. * * Re: July Is Nearing End... Anonymous   Wed Jul 31 2002 04:20 PM
. * * El-Nono (yes, it's OFFICIAL), possible GOMEX spin-up, African wave, and what a local met said. Kevin   Wed Jul 31 2002 04:49 PM
. * * Coupla Features Anonymous   Wed Jul 31 2002 02:56 PM
. * * Re: July Is Nearing End... Anonymous   Tue Jul 30 2002 04:05 PM
. * * The Quiet Before The Storms WXMAN RICHIE   Tue Jul 30 2002 10:44 PM
. * * Re: The Quiet Before The Storms 57497479   Tue Jul 30 2002 11:26 PM
. * * Re: The Quiet Before The Storms Kevin   Wed Jul 31 2002 02:49 AM
. * * Here's an interesting excerpt from Joe B. this morning (LA & TX)... Steve   Wed Jul 31 2002 12:32 PM
. * * Re: Here's an interesting excerpt from Joe B. this morning (LA & TX)... anonymous   Wed Jul 31 2002 06:48 PM
. * * Hey Shawn Steve   Wed Jul 31 2002 08:19 PM
. * * stuff Anonymous (HF)   Wed Jul 31 2002 08:06 PM
. * * Re: July Is Nearing End... Anonymous   Tue Jul 30 2002 01:30 PM
. * * central atl Anonymous (HF)   Mon Jul 29 2002 07:36 PM
. * * Re: central atl Anonymous   Mon Jul 29 2002 08:31 PM
. * * Re: central atl MoparMitch   Mon Jul 29 2002 08:14 PM
. * * Re: central atl Steve   Mon Jul 29 2002 09:46 PM
. * * Re: central atl Anonymous (HF)   Tue Jul 30 2002 06:23 AM

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