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HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA. HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. #RAFAEL
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 25 (Milton) , Major: 25 (Milton) Florida - Any: 25 (Milton) Major: 25 (Milton)
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ADV#10 11:00 am EDT
38.5N 16.2W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 999mb
Moving:
Ene at 17 mph
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ADV#5 3:00 pm EDT
15.5N 76.7W
Wind: 45MPH
Pres: 997mb
Moving:
N at 9 mph
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LI Phil
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Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
A Possibility For Development?
      Thu Jul 15 2004 08:24 PM

Looks like the wave that entrained itself off of Africa is really holding itself together well. I think if it can keep itself together towards 30-35W, we may have a legit shot at our first TD!

It's really impressing me to this point (and others..Steve H). For those of us Jonesing for our first storm, this may be our last best chance till Mid-August....so...let's follow this one.

I won't go ga-ga for another day or so...but...this could be "THE ONE"

Peace y'all,

LI Phil

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Analysis Ed DunhamAdministrator Thu Jul 15 2004 08:24 PM
. * * Gulf distrubance Cocoa Beach   Sun Jul 18 2004 07:39 PM
. * * low pressures in gulf LoisCane   Sun Jul 18 2004 07:51 PM
. * * Re: This wave might have a chance......... Tropics Guy   Sun Jul 18 2004 09:38 PM
. * * It's MY WAVE LI Phil   Sun Jul 18 2004 09:58 PM
. * * Re: It's MY WAVE LoisCane   Sun Jul 18 2004 10:52 PM
. * * Invest for the wave James88   Mon Jul 19 2004 02:25 AM
. * * Re: It's MY WAVE javlin   Sun Jul 18 2004 10:18 PM
. * * Question Cocoa Beach   Sun Jul 18 2004 10:35 AM
. * * Re: Question Cocoa Beach   Mon Jul 19 2004 10:22 AM
. * * ULL vs THE WAVE bobbi   Mon Jul 19 2004 11:04 AM
. * * Re: Question caneman   Mon Jul 19 2004 10:39 AM
. * * Re: Question Cocoa Beach   Mon Jul 19 2004 11:25 AM
. * * Re: 97L doug   Mon Jul 19 2004 12:09 PM
. * * Re: 97L Alex K   Mon Jul 19 2004 12:57 PM
. * * Re: 97L scottsvb1   Mon Jul 19 2004 01:08 PM
. * * Re: 97L Rabbit   Mon Jul 19 2004 01:47 PM
. * * Re: 97L Steve hirsch.   Mon Jul 19 2004 12:50 PM
. * * 97L-Models LI Phil   Mon Jul 19 2004 01:00 PM
. * * Re: Question Rabbit   Mon Jul 19 2004 12:05 PM
. * * 97L on IR WV Loop LI Phil   Mon Jul 19 2004 11:02 AM
. * * Link to Bouy CocoaBeach   Sun Jul 18 2004 02:03 PM
. * * Possible Developments??? GR FLA   Sun Jul 18 2004 10:59 AM
. * * Re: Possible Developments??? LI Phil   Sun Jul 18 2004 01:52 PM
. * * Re: Possible Developments??? Steve Hirschb.   Sun Jul 18 2004 02:04 PM
. * * Re: Possible Developments??? James88   Sun Jul 18 2004 02:26 PM
. * * "my wave" down there LoisCane   Sun Jul 18 2004 03:19 PM
. * * EVERYBODY'S WAVE!!! GR FLA   Sun Jul 18 2004 04:33 PM
. * * Re: EVERYBODY'S WAVE!!! LoisCane   Sun Jul 18 2004 05:06 PM
. * * IT'S MY WAVE! LI Phil   Sun Jul 18 2004 05:39 PM
. * * Gulf Storm Soon GR FLA   Sun Jul 18 2004 05:50 PM
. * * Re: Gulf Storm Soon Old Sailor   Sun Jul 18 2004 09:43 PM
. * * Re: Gulf Storm Soon DustDuchess   Sun Jul 18 2004 07:47 PM
. * * Re: Gulf Storm Soon *DELETED* Storm Cooper   Sun Jul 18 2004 05:54 PM
. * * Revised Number of Storms? rmbjoe1954   Sun Jul 18 2004 06:24 PM
. * * Re: Revised Number of Storms? LI Phil   Sun Jul 18 2004 06:35 PM
. * * Re: Gulf Storm Soon GR FLA   Sun Jul 18 2004 05:58 PM
. * * Re: Possible Developments??? Rich B   Sun Jul 18 2004 02:22 PM
. * * Waves Coming off Africa Anonymous   Wed Jul 14 2004 08:27 AM
. * * Re: Waves Coming off Africa LI Phil   Wed Jul 14 2004 10:45 AM
. * * Re: Waves Coming off Africa James88   Wed Jul 14 2004 11:53 AM
. * * Re: Waves Coming off Africa Steve hirsch.   Wed Jul 14 2004 12:04 PM
. * * Re: Analysis mp3reed   Sun Jul 11 2004 07:56 PM
. * * Re: Analysis Storm Cooper   Sun Jul 11 2004 08:19 PM
. * * circumstances and other forums HanKFranK   Sun Jul 11 2004 10:24 PM
. * * Re: circumstances and other forums h2ocean   Sun Jul 11 2004 11:20 PM
. * * Great explanation of MJO LI Phil   Mon Jul 12 2004 10:32 AM
. * * Re: Great explanation of MJO Steve   Mon Jul 12 2004 01:13 PM
. * * Steve-wrong link! LI Phil   Mon Jul 12 2004 01:16 PM
. * * Re: Steve-wrong link! Anonymous   Mon Jul 12 2004 01:18 PM
. * * Re: Steve-wrong link! andy1tom   Mon Jul 12 2004 01:59 PM
. * * 12N / 82W CocoaBeach   Mon Jul 12 2004 03:19 PM
. * * 3 Areas LI Phil   Mon Jul 12 2004 03:29 PM
. * * Re: 3 Areas Anonymous   Tue Jul 13 2004 10:17 AM
. * * Re: 3 Areas Robert   Tue Jul 13 2004 10:38 AM
. * * Re: 3 Areas LI Phil   Tue Jul 13 2004 11:49 AM
. * * Re: 3 Areas...look again at the SW Carib as in NOW Bobbi   Tue Jul 13 2004 12:52 PM
. * * Re: 3 Areas...look again at the SW Carib as in NOW Old Sailor   Tue Jul 13 2004 01:19 PM
. * * Re: 3 Areas...look again at the SW Carib as in NOW Old Sailor   Wed Jul 14 2004 10:32 PM
. * * Happy Birthday Old Sailor LI Phil   Wed Jul 14 2004 10:49 PM
. * * Just Some Notes Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Jul 14 2004 11:51 PM
. * * Re: Just Some Notes LoisCane   Thu Jul 15 2004 08:12 AM
. * * All Quiet on the Tropic Front LI Phil   Thu Jul 15 2004 10:29 AM
. * * Re: All Quiet on the Tropic Front James88   Thu Jul 15 2004 10:38 AM
. * * Re: All Quiet on the Tropic Front JustMe   Thu Jul 15 2004 11:47 AM
. * * Re: All Quiet on the Tropic Front Steve hirsch.   Thu Jul 15 2004 12:06 PM
. * * Commentary... LI Phil   Thu Jul 15 2004 12:25 PM
. * * Re: Commentary... Steve hirsch.   Thu Jul 15 2004 12:34 PM
. * * Re: Commentary... ROB H   Thu Jul 15 2004 01:42 PM
. * * Re: Commentary... Robert   Thu Jul 15 2004 12:42 PM
. * * Question about the Bermuda High. Cocoa Beach   Thu Jul 15 2004 01:27 PM
. * * Re: Question about the Bermuda High. GR MIAMI   Thu Jul 15 2004 02:47 PM
. * * For Cocoa & GR Miami LI Phil   Thu Jul 15 2004 02:59 PM
. * * Great Article Cocoa Beach   Thu Jul 15 2004 03:15 PM
. * * Observations Cycloneye   Thu Jul 15 2004 02:55 PM
. * * Re: Observations Steve Hirschb.   Thu Jul 15 2004 03:00 PM
. * * Re: Observations James88   Thu Jul 15 2004 03:19 PM
. * * Unnamed Storms LI Phil   Thu Jul 15 2004 12:56 PM
. * * Re: Unnamed Storms Anonymous   Thu Jul 15 2004 05:12 PM
. * * Re:site prob summercyclone   Thu Jul 15 2004 05:17 PM
. * * Re:site prob Old Sailor   Thu Jul 15 2004 05:22 PM
. * * A Possibility For Development? LI Phil   Thu Jul 15 2004 08:24 PM
. * * My Thoughts on E ATL Wave JasonM603   Thu Jul 15 2004 08:20 PM
. * * Re: My Thoughts on E ATL Wave LI Phil   Thu Jul 15 2004 08:45 PM
. * * East atlantic wave potential? Cycloneye   Thu Jul 15 2004 09:15 PM
. * * Re: East atlantic wave potential? LI Phil   Thu Jul 15 2004 10:54 PM
. * * Re: East atlantic wave potential? Anonymous   Fri Jul 16 2004 11:36 AM
. * * Disturbance south of Coo-bah LI Phil   Fri Jul 16 2004 12:31 PM
. * * Re: Just an interesting pic Anonymous   Fri Jul 16 2004 12:50 PM
. * * Another wave bites the dust Cycloneye   Fri Jul 16 2004 02:11 PM
. * * Re: Another wave bites the dust LI Phil   Fri Jul 16 2004 02:47 PM
. * * Re: Another wave bites the dust James88   Fri Jul 16 2004 03:49 PM
. * * cuba and atlantic Rabbit   Fri Jul 16 2004 02:38 PM
. * * strong storms over south florida and watching the wave bobbi   Fri Jul 16 2004 02:32 PM
. * * Re: Looks good to me! Best so far... Anonymous   Fri Jul 16 2004 02:33 PM
. * * 7/15/04 Tropics... Steve   Thu Jul 15 2004 11:47 PM
. * * Re: 7/15/04 Tropics...my thoughts LoisCane   Fri Jul 16 2004 06:55 AM
. * * Re: 7/15/04 Tropics...my thoughts Steve hirsch.   Fri Jul 16 2004 08:00 AM
. * * Tropical Goings On... LI Phil   Fri Jul 16 2004 10:23 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Goings On... James88   Fri Jul 16 2004 11:09 AM
. * * wouldnt it be funny if tropics heated up? bobbi   Fri Jul 16 2004 10:43 AM
. * * A Little spin below Cuba? Colleen A.   Fri Jul 16 2004 11:03 AM
. * * Re: A Little spin below Cuba? Steve Hirschb.   Fri Jul 16 2004 12:26 PM
. * * Forgotten Password? For Steve H. LI Phil   Fri Jul 16 2004 04:04 PM
. * * 3 things bobbi   Fri Jul 16 2004 04:29 PM
. * * ATL wave...no show Rob_M   Fri Jul 16 2004 04:52 PM
. * * Re: ATL wave...no show LI Phil   Fri Jul 16 2004 05:23 PM
. * * Re: ATL wave...no show Rob_M   Fri Jul 16 2004 08:47 PM
. * * Re: ATL wave...no show Cycloneye   Fri Jul 16 2004 06:30 PM
. * * Re: ATL wave...no show Steve Hirschb.   Fri Jul 16 2004 07:29 PM
. * * Re: ATL wave...no show LI Phil   Fri Jul 16 2004 08:24 PM
. * * Re: ATL wave...no show javlin   Fri Jul 16 2004 08:55 PM
. * * Re: ATL wave...no show LI Phil   Fri Jul 16 2004 09:58 PM
. * * Re: ATL wave...no show Rob_M   Fri Jul 16 2004 10:31 PM
. * * Saturday AM LI Phil   Sat Jul 17 2004 11:45 AM
. * * Re: Saturday AM Steve hirsch.   Sat Jul 17 2004 12:03 PM
. * * Re: Saturday PM Cycloneye   Sat Jul 17 2004 12:28 PM
. * * Is "my" wave showing signs of life? LI Phil   Sat Jul 17 2004 05:12 PM
. * * Re: Is "my" wave showing signs of life? Rabbit   Sat Jul 17 2004 05:43 PM
. * * Morning Discussion on Wave JasonM603   Mon Jul 19 2004 05:19 AM
. * * Re: Morning Discussion on Wave LoisCane   Mon Jul 19 2004 07:53 AM
. * * Re: Morning Discussion on Wave Tropics Guy   Mon Jul 19 2004 09:42 AM
. * * Morning Discussion on Wave & 1969-Thanks Bobbi   Mon Jul 19 2004 09:51 AM
. * * Re: Morning Discussion on Wave & 1969-Thanks Anonymous   Mon Jul 19 2004 10:23 AM
. * * 97L LI Phil   Mon Jul 19 2004 10:32 AM
. * * Re: New CV wave Tropics Guy   Mon Jul 19 2004 10:12 AM
. * * 97L Jamiewx   Mon Jul 19 2004 10:20 AM
. * * Re: Morning Discussion on Wave Cycloneye   Mon Jul 19 2004 07:02 AM
. * * Re: Morning Discussion on Wave Cycloneye   Mon Jul 19 2004 07:29 AM
. * * lowering.. LoisCane   Sat Jul 17 2004 09:57 PM
. * * Re: lowering.. Storm Cooper   Sat Jul 17 2004 10:45 PM
. * * Re: Is "my" wave showing signs of life? JasonM603   Sat Jul 17 2004 08:18 PM
. * * Re: Is "my" wave showing signs of life? Cycloneye   Sat Jul 17 2004 08:31 PM
. * * URL LI Phil   Sat Jul 17 2004 05:48 PM
. * * Re: Is "my" wave showing signs of life? James88   Sat Jul 17 2004 05:40 PM
. * * What about the next wave to emerge Africa? Cycloneye   Fri Jul 16 2004 08:34 PM
. * * Re:Correlation Between Florida fires and the 'Season' rmbjoe1954   Fri Jul 16 2004 06:19 PM
. * * Re: ATL wave...no show James88   Fri Jul 16 2004 05:08 PM
. * * Re: Passwords Anonymous   Fri Jul 16 2004 04:38 PM
. * * Re: A Little spin below Cuba? Anonymous   Fri Jul 16 2004 11:14 AM
. * * Re: 7/15/04 Tropics...my thoughts James88   Fri Jul 16 2004 10:14 AM
. * * analyze this..... bobbi   Thu Jul 15 2004 10:34 AM
. * * Re: 3 Areas...look again at the SW Carib as in NOW LI Phil   Tue Jul 13 2004 01:40 PM
. * * see if it sits bobbi   Tue Jul 13 2004 01:48 PM
. * * Re: see if it sits Anonymous   Tue Jul 13 2004 04:07 PM
. * * Re: see if it sits LI Phil   Tue Jul 13 2004 05:38 PM
. * * irritating small things HanKFranK   Tue Jul 13 2004 06:31 PM
. * * you sound testy hf, watching loops here Bobbi   Tue Jul 13 2004 08:43 PM
. * * Re: you sound testy hf, watching loops here Anonymous   Wed Jul 14 2004 01:42 AM
. * * Re: you sound testy hf, watching loops here JasonM603   Wed Jul 14 2004 03:34 AM
. * * Several days time? James88   Wed Jul 14 2004 05:49 AM
. * * Re: Several days time? JustMe   Wed Jul 14 2004 07:53 AM
. * * EL NINO LONNY307   Wed Jul 14 2004 08:23 AM
. * * Re: EL NINO LI Phil   Wed Jul 14 2004 12:14 PM
. * * Re: EL NINO Steve   Wed Jul 14 2004 03:24 PM
. * * Re: EL NINO Steve Hirschb.   Wed Jul 14 2004 04:45 PM
. * * Re: EL NINO Steve Hirschb.   Wed Jul 14 2004 04:48 PM
. * * Re: EL NINO LI Phil   Wed Jul 14 2004 03:58 PM
. * * Hot in Florida Bobbi   Wed Jul 14 2004 04:23 PM
. * * A repeat of 1998? James88   Wed Jul 14 2004 04:53 PM
. * * Re: A repeat of 1998? Bobbi   Wed Jul 14 2004 04:57 PM
. * * Re: A repeat of 1998? Steve   Wed Jul 14 2004 05:18 PM
. * * Re: A repeat of 1998? HanKFranK   Wed Jul 14 2004 05:46 PM
. * * Re: A repeat of 1998? LI Phil   Wed Jul 14 2004 05:28 PM
. * * Phil...wake up and smell the chamomille tea Bobbi   Wed Jul 14 2004 05:55 PM
. * * other late starts Rabbit   Wed Jul 14 2004 05:38 PM
. * * Re: other late starts HanKFranK   Wed Jul 14 2004 05:53 PM
. * * the source... Rabbit   Wed Jul 14 2004 06:13 PM
. * * If you actually took the time to READ my posts LI Phil   Wed Jul 14 2004 06:34 PM
. * * Re: the source... Rabbit   Wed Jul 14 2004 06:20 PM
. * * Re: A repeat of 1998? James88   Wed Jul 14 2004 05:05 PM
. * * Re: EL NINO JasonM603   Wed Jul 14 2004 12:07 PM
. * * Re: Several days time? Steve hirsch.   Wed Jul 14 2004 07:53 AM
. * * testy as buddha HanKFranK   Wed Jul 14 2004 12:30 AM
. * * Re: irritating small things LI Phil   Tue Jul 13 2004 06:50 PM
. * * Re: see if it sits Steve   Tue Jul 13 2004 05:10 PM
. * * Re: 1999 summercyclone   Wed Jul 14 2004 10:41 AM
. * * Re: Gulf micro-low summercyclone   Mon Jul 12 2004 03:51 PM
. * * Re: Gulf micro-low Steve   Mon Jul 12 2004 04:16 PM
. * * Possible Carib system and flooding in Nepal too! Bobbi   Mon Jul 12 2004 05:03 PM
. * * nothing doing, still analysis time HanKFranK   Mon Jul 12 2004 08:46 PM
. * * Re: nothing doing, still analysis time LI Phil   Mon Jul 12 2004 08:58 PM
. * * CV wave too low Bobbi   Tue Jul 13 2004 08:15 AM
. * * NE Gulf Bobbi   Mon Jul 12 2004 02:40 PM
. * * hey to As IF lol bobbi   Mon Jul 12 2004 07:53 AM
. * * Re: Analysis Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Jul 11 2004 05:22 PM
. * * Re: Analysis Anonymous   Sun Jul 11 2004 11:08 PM
. * * Re: Analysis Steve Hirschb.   Sun Jul 11 2004 07:12 PM
. * * Wave in GOM and a possible circulation center ...deja vu LoisCane   Sun Jul 11 2004 07:43 PM
. * * Re: Analysis Anonymous   Sun Jul 11 2004 01:19 PM
. * * Re: Analysis LI Phil   Sat Jul 10 2004 06:36 PM
. * * Re: Analysis Cycloneye   Sat Jul 10 2004 07:21 PM
. * * Re: Analysis rmbjoe1954   Sun Jul 11 2004 07:49 AM
. * * Re: Analysis James88   Sun Jul 11 2004 08:07 AM
. * * Re: Analysis Rabbit   Sun Jul 11 2004 10:36 AM
. * * Re: Analysis LI Phil   Sun Jul 11 2004 11:12 AM
. * * Re: Analysis tornado00   Sun Jul 11 2004 12:05 PM
. * * What did I miss here.. why do you think there will be nothing til August? LoisCane   Sun Jul 11 2004 01:30 PM
. * * Re: What did I miss here.. why do you think there will be nothing til August? h2ocean   Sat Jul 17 2004 08:50 PM
. * * Re: What did I miss here.. why do you think there will be nothing til August? Old Sailor   Sat Jul 17 2004 09:28 PM
. * * Re: What did I miss here.. why do you think there will be nothing til August? Steve Hirschb..   Sun Jul 11 2004 04:31 PM
. * * Climo LI Phil   Sun Jul 11 2004 05:22 PM
. * * Re: What did I miss here.. why do you think there will be nothing til August? James88   Sun Jul 11 2004 05:19 PM
. * * Re: Analysis James88   Sun Jul 11 2004 11:56 AM
. * * Re: Analysis James88   Sun Jul 11 2004 11:08 AM

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