I agree with you Phil, I don't think that we should be so fast to write this one off. Let's see if it can make it to the western Atlantic and Caribbean in some form or another. It's gonna have to move a bit further north if it's going to avoid crashing into South America, though.
BTW, I know that a negative MJO factor enhances the chances of development, but would an unfavourable MJO prevent any storms forming whatsoever? Is there an albeit smaller chance of something forming before mid-August?
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