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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

Rob_M
Weather Hobbyist

Reged:
Posts: 60
Loc: Cary, NC

ATL wave...no show
Fri Jul 16 2004 08:52 PM

Not impressed with it right now...development appears very unlikely in both in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean.

IWIC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - 16 July 2004 - 4:30 PM EDT

The one system that is worthy of even a mention is the tropical wave near 25ºW, which is producing scattered convection to the east of its axis. Although shear is currently low in the area, dry air due to the seasonably strong subtropical ridge remains present. Additionally, the Saharan Air Layer is moderate in the Mean Development Region. These two factors are keeping convection associated with this wave minimal, and therefore greatly reducing its chance to form into a tropical cyclone. The GFS, which was showing some slight development yesterday, has backed off quite a bit. It was never in agreement with the other global models, so therefore as it stands now, no model does anything with this wave for the next 6 days. Once it reaches the Caribbean Sea, it will simultaneously reach a stronger shearing environment in part due to the Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough. No development is expected from this wave during its trek through the Mean Development Region and Caribbean Sea.

Elsewhere, the tropics are quiet.

On another note...I want to point out that in the past 55 years, there have only been 4 named storms to form in the Caribbean Sea during the month of July. These include Becky and Celia in 1970, Cesar in 1996, and Claudette in 2003. The first 2 formed in the W Caribbean...whereas the latter 2 were in the E. If you want to get technical about it, you could cross out Becky and Celia because they didn't become TSs until they were in the GOM...which would mean NO W Caribbean formations in July. But regardless of which to count and which to not, the point is it's a very uncommon occurrance...contrary to what is commonly thought to be a hotspot at this time of the year. Even funnier is those storms were all during an E QBO (not the case this year).

--------------------
Rob Mann
IndependentWx.Com

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Analysis	Ed Dunham	Fri Jul 16 2004 08:52 PM
Gulf distrubance	Cocoa Beach	Sun Jul 18 2004 11:39 PM
low pressures in gulf	LoisCane	Sun Jul 18 2004 11:51 PM
Re: This wave might have a chance.........	Tropics Guy	Mon Jul 19 2004 01:38 AM
It's MY WAVE	LI Phil	Mon Jul 19 2004 01:58 AM
Re: It's MY WAVE	LoisCane	Mon Jul 19 2004 02:52 AM
Invest for the wave	James88	Mon Jul 19 2004 06:25 AM
Re: It's MY WAVE	javlin	Mon Jul 19 2004 02:18 AM
Question	Cocoa Beach	Sun Jul 18 2004 02:35 PM
Re: Question	Cocoa Beach	Mon Jul 19 2004 02:22 PM
ULL vs THE WAVE	bobbi	Mon Jul 19 2004 03:04 PM
Re: Question	caneman	Mon Jul 19 2004 02:39 PM
Re: Question	Cocoa Beach	Mon Jul 19 2004 03:25 PM
Re: 97L	doug	Mon Jul 19 2004 04:09 PM
Re: 97L	Alex K	Mon Jul 19 2004 04:57 PM
Re: 97L	scottsvb1	Mon Jul 19 2004 05:08 PM
Re: 97L	Rabbit	Mon Jul 19 2004 05:47 PM
Re: 97L	Steve hirsch.	Mon Jul 19 2004 04:50 PM
97L-Models	LI Phil	Mon Jul 19 2004 05:00 PM
Re: Question	Rabbit	Mon Jul 19 2004 04:05 PM
97L on IR WV Loop	LI Phil	Mon Jul 19 2004 03:02 PM
Link to Bouy	CocoaBeach	Sun Jul 18 2004 06:03 PM
Possible Developments???	GR FLA	Sun Jul 18 2004 02:59 PM
Re: Possible Developments???	LI Phil	Sun Jul 18 2004 05:52 PM
Re: Possible Developments???	Steve Hirschb.	Sun Jul 18 2004 06:04 PM
Re: Possible Developments???	James88	Sun Jul 18 2004 06:26 PM
"my wave" down there	LoisCane	Sun Jul 18 2004 07:19 PM
EVERYBODY'S WAVE!!!	GR FLA	Sun Jul 18 2004 08:33 PM
Re: EVERYBODY'S WAVE!!!	LoisCane	Sun Jul 18 2004 09:06 PM
IT'S MY WAVE!	LI Phil	Sun Jul 18 2004 09:39 PM
Gulf Storm Soon	GR FLA	Sun Jul 18 2004 09:50 PM
Re: Gulf Storm Soon	Old Sailor	Mon Jul 19 2004 01:43 AM
Re: Gulf Storm Soon	DustDuchess	Sun Jul 18 2004 11:47 PM
Re: Gulf Storm Soon DELETED	Storm Cooper	Sun Jul 18 2004 09:54 PM
Revised Number of Storms?	rmbjoe1954	Sun Jul 18 2004 10:24 PM
Re: Revised Number of Storms?	LI Phil	Sun Jul 18 2004 10:35 PM
Re: Gulf Storm Soon	GR FLA	Sun Jul 18 2004 09:58 PM
Re: Possible Developments???	Rich B	Sun Jul 18 2004 06:22 PM
Waves Coming off Africa	Anonymous	Wed Jul 14 2004 12:27 PM
Re: Waves Coming off Africa	LI Phil	Wed Jul 14 2004 02:45 PM
Re: Waves Coming off Africa	James88	Wed Jul 14 2004 03:53 PM
Re: Waves Coming off Africa	Steve hirsch.	Wed Jul 14 2004 04:04 PM
Re: Analysis	mp3reed	Sun Jul 11 2004 11:56 PM
Re: Analysis	Storm Cooper	Mon Jul 12 2004 12:19 AM
circumstances and other forums	HanKFranK	Mon Jul 12 2004 02:24 AM
Re: circumstances and other forums	h2ocean	Mon Jul 12 2004 03:20 AM
Great explanation of MJO	LI Phil	Mon Jul 12 2004 02:32 PM
Re: Great explanation of MJO	Steve	Mon Jul 12 2004 05:13 PM
Steve-wrong link!	LI Phil	Mon Jul 12 2004 05:16 PM
Re: Steve-wrong link!	Anonymous	Mon Jul 12 2004 05:18 PM
Re: Steve-wrong link!	andy1tom	Mon Jul 12 2004 05:59 PM
12N / 82W	CocoaBeach	Mon Jul 12 2004 07:19 PM
3 Areas	LI Phil	Mon Jul 12 2004 07:29 PM
Re: 3 Areas	Anonymous	Tue Jul 13 2004 02:17 PM
Re: 3 Areas	Robert	Tue Jul 13 2004 02:38 PM
Re: 3 Areas	LI Phil	Tue Jul 13 2004 03:49 PM
Re: 3 Areas...look again at the SW Carib as in NOW	Bobbi	Tue Jul 13 2004 04:52 PM
Re: 3 Areas...look again at the SW Carib as in NOW	Old Sailor	Tue Jul 13 2004 05:19 PM
Re: 3 Areas...look again at the SW Carib as in NOW	Old Sailor	Thu Jul 15 2004 02:32 AM
Happy Birthday Old Sailor	LI Phil	Thu Jul 15 2004 02:49 AM
Just Some Notes	Ed Dunham	Thu Jul 15 2004 03:51 AM
Re: Just Some Notes	LoisCane	Thu Jul 15 2004 12:12 PM
All Quiet on the Tropic Front	LI Phil	Thu Jul 15 2004 02:29 PM
Re: All Quiet on the Tropic Front	James88	Thu Jul 15 2004 02:38 PM
Re: All Quiet on the Tropic Front	JustMe	Thu Jul 15 2004 03:47 PM
Re: All Quiet on the Tropic Front	Steve hirsch.	Thu Jul 15 2004 04:06 PM
Commentary...	LI Phil	Thu Jul 15 2004 04:25 PM
Re: Commentary...	Steve hirsch.	Thu Jul 15 2004 04:34 PM
Re: Commentary...	ROB H	Thu Jul 15 2004 05:42 PM
Re: Commentary...	Robert	Thu Jul 15 2004 04:42 PM
Question about the Bermuda High.	Cocoa Beach	Thu Jul 15 2004 05:27 PM
Re: Question about the Bermuda High.	GR MIAMI	Thu Jul 15 2004 06:47 PM
For Cocoa & GR Miami	LI Phil	Thu Jul 15 2004 06:59 PM
Great Article	Cocoa Beach	Thu Jul 15 2004 07:15 PM
Observations	Cycloneye	Thu Jul 15 2004 06:55 PM
Re: Observations	Steve Hirschb.	Thu Jul 15 2004 07:00 PM
Re: Observations	James88	Thu Jul 15 2004 07:19 PM
Unnamed Storms	LI Phil	Thu Jul 15 2004 04:56 PM
Re: Unnamed Storms	Anonymous	Thu Jul 15 2004 09:12 PM
Re:site prob	summercyclone	Thu Jul 15 2004 09:17 PM
Re:site prob	Old Sailor	Thu Jul 15 2004 09:22 PM
A Possibility For Development?	LI Phil	Fri Jul 16 2004 12:24 AM
My Thoughts on E ATL Wave	JasonM603	Fri Jul 16 2004 12:20 AM
Re: My Thoughts on E ATL Wave	LI Phil	Fri Jul 16 2004 12:45 AM
East atlantic wave potential?	Cycloneye	Fri Jul 16 2004 01:15 AM
Re: East atlantic wave potential?	LI Phil	Fri Jul 16 2004 02:54 AM
Re: East atlantic wave potential?	Anonymous	Fri Jul 16 2004 03:36 PM
Disturbance south of Coo-bah	LI Phil	Fri Jul 16 2004 04:31 PM
Re: Just an interesting pic	Anonymous	Fri Jul 16 2004 04:50 PM
Another wave bites the dust	Cycloneye	Fri Jul 16 2004 06:11 PM
Re: Another wave bites the dust	LI Phil	Fri Jul 16 2004 06:47 PM
Re: Another wave bites the dust	James88	Fri Jul 16 2004 07:49 PM
cuba and atlantic	Rabbit	Fri Jul 16 2004 06:38 PM
strong storms over south florida and watching the wave	bobbi	Fri Jul 16 2004 06:32 PM
Re: Looks good to me! Best so far...	Anonymous	Fri Jul 16 2004 06:33 PM
7/15/04 Tropics...	Steve	Fri Jul 16 2004 03:47 AM
Re: 7/15/04 Tropics...my thoughts	LoisCane	Fri Jul 16 2004 10:55 AM
Re: 7/15/04 Tropics...my thoughts	Steve hirsch.	Fri Jul 16 2004 12:00 PM
Tropical Goings On...	LI Phil	Fri Jul 16 2004 02:23 PM
Re: Tropical Goings On...	James88	Fri Jul 16 2004 03:09 PM
wouldnt it be funny if tropics heated up?	bobbi	Fri Jul 16 2004 02:43 PM
A Little spin below Cuba?	Colleen A.	Fri Jul 16 2004 03:03 PM
Re: A Little spin below Cuba?	Steve Hirschb.	Fri Jul 16 2004 04:26 PM
Forgotten Password? For Steve H.	LI Phil	Fri Jul 16 2004 08:04 PM
3 things	bobbi	Fri Jul 16 2004 08:29 PM
ATL wave...no show	Rob_M	Fri Jul 16 2004 08:52 PM
Re: ATL wave...no show	LI Phil	Fri Jul 16 2004 09:23 PM
Re: ATL wave...no show	Rob_M	Sat Jul 17 2004 12:47 AM
Re: ATL wave...no show	Cycloneye	Fri Jul 16 2004 10:30 PM
Re: ATL wave...no show	Steve Hirschb.	Fri Jul 16 2004 11:29 PM
Re: ATL wave...no show	LI Phil	Sat Jul 17 2004 12:24 AM
Re: ATL wave...no show	javlin	Sat Jul 17 2004 12:55 AM
Re: ATL wave...no show	LI Phil	Sat Jul 17 2004 01:58 AM
Re: ATL wave...no show	Rob_M	Sat Jul 17 2004 02:31 AM
Saturday AM	LI Phil	Sat Jul 17 2004 03:45 PM
Re: Saturday AM	Steve hirsch.	Sat Jul 17 2004 04:03 PM
Re: Saturday PM	Cycloneye	Sat Jul 17 2004 04:28 PM
Is "my" wave showing signs of life?	LI Phil	Sat Jul 17 2004 09:12 PM
Re: Is "my" wave showing signs of life?	Rabbit	Sat Jul 17 2004 09:43 PM
Morning Discussion on Wave	JasonM603	Mon Jul 19 2004 09:19 AM
Re: Morning Discussion on Wave	LoisCane	Mon Jul 19 2004 11:53 AM
Re: Morning Discussion on Wave	Tropics Guy	Mon Jul 19 2004 01:42 PM
Morning Discussion on Wave & 1969-Thanks	Bobbi	Mon Jul 19 2004 01:51 PM
Re: Morning Discussion on Wave & 1969-Thanks	Anonymous	Mon Jul 19 2004 02:23 PM
97L	LI Phil	Mon Jul 19 2004 02:32 PM
Re: New CV wave	Tropics Guy	Mon Jul 19 2004 02:12 PM
97L	Jamiewx	Mon Jul 19 2004 02:20 PM
Re: Morning Discussion on Wave	Cycloneye	Mon Jul 19 2004 11:02 AM
Re: Morning Discussion on Wave	Cycloneye	Mon Jul 19 2004 11:29 AM
lowering..	LoisCane	Sun Jul 18 2004 01:57 AM
Re: lowering..	Storm Cooper	Sun Jul 18 2004 02:45 AM
Re: Is "my" wave showing signs of life?	JasonM603	Sun Jul 18 2004 12:18 AM
Re: Is "my" wave showing signs of life?	Cycloneye	Sun Jul 18 2004 12:31 AM
URL	LI Phil	Sat Jul 17 2004 09:48 PM
Re: Is "my" wave showing signs of life?	James88	Sat Jul 17 2004 09:40 PM
What about the next wave to emerge Africa?	Cycloneye	Sat Jul 17 2004 12:34 AM
Re:Correlation Between Florida fires and the 'Season'	rmbjoe1954	Fri Jul 16 2004 10:19 PM
Re: ATL wave...no show	James88	Fri Jul 16 2004 09:08 PM
Re: Passwords	Anonymous	Fri Jul 16 2004 08:38 PM
Re: A Little spin below Cuba?	Anonymous	Fri Jul 16 2004 03:14 PM
Re: 7/15/04 Tropics...my thoughts	James88	Fri Jul 16 2004 02:14 PM
analyze this.....	bobbi	Thu Jul 15 2004 02:34 PM
Re: 3 Areas...look again at the SW Carib as in NOW	LI Phil	Tue Jul 13 2004 05:40 PM
see if it sits	bobbi	Tue Jul 13 2004 05:48 PM
Re: see if it sits	Anonymous	Tue Jul 13 2004 08:07 PM
Re: see if it sits	LI Phil	Tue Jul 13 2004 09:38 PM
irritating small things	HanKFranK	Tue Jul 13 2004 10:31 PM
you sound testy hf, watching loops here	Bobbi	Wed Jul 14 2004 12:43 AM
Re: you sound testy hf, watching loops here	Anonymous	Wed Jul 14 2004 05:42 AM
Re: you sound testy hf, watching loops here	JasonM603	Wed Jul 14 2004 07:34 AM
Several days time?	James88	Wed Jul 14 2004 09:49 AM
Re: Several days time?	JustMe	Wed Jul 14 2004 11:53 AM
EL NINO	LONNY307	Wed Jul 14 2004 12:23 PM
Re: EL NINO	LI Phil	Wed Jul 14 2004 04:14 PM
Re: EL NINO	Steve	Wed Jul 14 2004 07:24 PM
Re: EL NINO	Steve Hirschb.	Wed Jul 14 2004 08:45 PM
Re: EL NINO	Steve Hirschb.	Wed Jul 14 2004 08:48 PM
Re: EL NINO	LI Phil	Wed Jul 14 2004 07:58 PM
Hot in Florida	Bobbi	Wed Jul 14 2004 08:23 PM
A repeat of 1998?	James88	Wed Jul 14 2004 08:53 PM
Re: A repeat of 1998?	Bobbi	Wed Jul 14 2004 08:57 PM
Re: A repeat of 1998?	Steve	Wed Jul 14 2004 09:18 PM
Re: A repeat of 1998?	HanKFranK	Wed Jul 14 2004 09:46 PM
Re: A repeat of 1998?	LI Phil	Wed Jul 14 2004 09:28 PM
Phil...wake up and smell the chamomille tea	Bobbi	Wed Jul 14 2004 09:55 PM
other late starts	Rabbit	Wed Jul 14 2004 09:38 PM
Re: other late starts	HanKFranK	Wed Jul 14 2004 09:53 PM
the source...	Rabbit	Wed Jul 14 2004 10:13 PM
If you actually took the time to READ my posts	LI Phil	Wed Jul 14 2004 10:34 PM
Re: the source...	Rabbit	Wed Jul 14 2004 10:20 PM
Re: A repeat of 1998?	James88	Wed Jul 14 2004 09:05 PM
Re: EL NINO	JasonM603	Wed Jul 14 2004 04:07 PM
Re: Several days time?	Steve hirsch.	Wed Jul 14 2004 11:53 AM
testy as buddha	HanKFranK	Wed Jul 14 2004 04:30 AM
Re: irritating small things	LI Phil	Tue Jul 13 2004 10:50 PM
Re: see if it sits	Steve	Tue Jul 13 2004 09:10 PM
Re: 1999	summercyclone	Wed Jul 14 2004 02:41 PM
Re: Gulf micro-low	summercyclone	Mon Jul 12 2004 07:51 PM
Re: Gulf micro-low	Steve	Mon Jul 12 2004 08:16 PM
Possible Carib system and flooding in Nepal too!	Bobbi	Mon Jul 12 2004 09:03 PM
nothing doing, still analysis time	HanKFranK	Tue Jul 13 2004 12:46 AM
Re: nothing doing, still analysis time	LI Phil	Tue Jul 13 2004 12:58 AM
CV wave too low	Bobbi	Tue Jul 13 2004 12:15 PM
NE Gulf	Bobbi	Mon Jul 12 2004 06:40 PM
hey to As IF lol	bobbi	Mon Jul 12 2004 11:53 AM
Re: Analysis	Ed Dunham	Sun Jul 11 2004 09:22 PM
Re: Analysis	Anonymous	Mon Jul 12 2004 03:08 AM
Re: Analysis	Steve Hirschb.	Sun Jul 11 2004 11:12 PM
Wave in GOM and a possible circulation center ...deja vu	LoisCane	Sun Jul 11 2004 11:43 PM
Re: Analysis	Anonymous	Sun Jul 11 2004 05:19 PM
Re: Analysis	LI Phil	Sat Jul 10 2004 10:36 PM
Re: Analysis	Cycloneye	Sat Jul 10 2004 11:21 PM
Re: Analysis	rmbjoe1954	Sun Jul 11 2004 11:49 AM
Re: Analysis	James88	Sun Jul 11 2004 12:07 PM
Re: Analysis	Rabbit	Sun Jul 11 2004 02:36 PM
Re: Analysis	LI Phil	Sun Jul 11 2004 03:12 PM
Re: Analysis	tornado00	Sun Jul 11 2004 04:05 PM
What did I miss here.. why do you think there will be nothing til August?	LoisCane	Sun Jul 11 2004 05:30 PM
Re: What did I miss here.. why do you think there will be nothing til August?	h2ocean	Sun Jul 18 2004 12:50 AM
Re: What did I miss here.. why do you think there will be nothing til August?	Old Sailor	Sun Jul 18 2004 01:28 AM
Re: What did I miss here.. why do you think there will be nothing til August?	Steve Hirschb..	Sun Jul 11 2004 08:31 PM
Climo	LI Phil	Sun Jul 11 2004 09:22 PM
Re: What did I miss here.. why do you think there will be nothing til August?	James88	Sun Jul 11 2004 09:19 PM
Re: Analysis	James88	Sun Jul 11 2004 03:56 PM
Re: Analysis	James88	Sun Jul 11 2004 03:08 PM

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