The one system that is worthy of even a mention is the tropical wave near 25ºW, which is producing scattered convection to the east of its axis. Although shear is currently low in the area, dry air due to the seasonably strong subtropical ridge remains present. Additionally, the Saharan Air Layer is moderate in the Mean Development Region. These two factors are keeping convection associated with this wave minimal, and therefore greatly reducing its chance to form into a tropical cyclone. The GFS, which was showing some slight development yesterday, has backed off quite a bit. It was never in agreement with the other global models, so therefore as it stands now, no model does anything with this wave for the next 6 days. Once it reaches the Caribbean Sea, it will simultaneously reach a stronger shearing environment in part due to the Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough. No development is expected from this wave during its trek through the Mean Development Region and Caribbean Sea.
Elsewhere, the tropics are quiet.
On another note...I want to point out that in the past 55 years, there have only been 4 named storms to form in the Caribbean Sea during the month of July. These include Becky and Celia in 1970, Cesar in 1996, and Claudette in 2003. The first 2 formed in the W Caribbean...whereas the latter 2 were in the E. If you want to get technical about it, you could cross out Becky and Celia because they didn't become TSs until they were in the GOM...which would mean NO W Caribbean formations in July. But regardless of which to count and which to not, the point is it's a very uncommon occurrance...contrary to what is commonly thought to be a hotspot at this time of the year. Even funnier is those storms were all during an E QBO (not the case this year).
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