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Tropical Storm Watch issued for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to W of Channel 5 Bridge, and for the Dry Tortugas #RAFAEL #FLWX
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 26 (Milton) , Major: 26 (Milton) Florida - Any: 26 (Milton) Major: 26 (Milton)
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ADV#10 11:00 am EDT
38.5N 16.2W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 999mb
Moving:
Ene at 17 mph
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TS Rafael
ADV#5A 6:00 pm EDT
15.8N 76.9W
Wind: 45MPH
Pres: 1000mb
Moving:
Nnw at 9 mph
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LI Phil
User


Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Revised Number of Storms?
      Sun Jul 18 2004 06:35 PM

rmbjoe'54:

That's still a pretty "aggressive" number anyway. One less hurricane.

GR FLA: His post might have something to do with a PM. Give the Coop a pass on this one...he's working on a new model, should be ready soon

As far as reducing #s, most of the more knowledgable posters (that excludes me of course) are saying not to change your #s, that the current paucity of activity has no bearing on future activity. I'm keeping my 14/8/3 come heck or full moon tides.

BTW, how's MY wave looking?

Cheers,

LI Phil

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Analysis Ed DunhamAdministrator Sun Jul 18 2004 06:35 PM
. * * Gulf distrubance Cocoa Beach   Sun Jul 18 2004 07:39 PM
. * * low pressures in gulf LoisCane   Sun Jul 18 2004 07:51 PM
. * * Re: This wave might have a chance......... Tropics Guy   Sun Jul 18 2004 09:38 PM
. * * It's MY WAVE LI Phil   Sun Jul 18 2004 09:58 PM
. * * Re: It's MY WAVE LoisCane   Sun Jul 18 2004 10:52 PM
. * * Invest for the wave James88   Mon Jul 19 2004 02:25 AM
. * * Re: It's MY WAVE javlin   Sun Jul 18 2004 10:18 PM
. * * Question Cocoa Beach   Sun Jul 18 2004 10:35 AM
. * * Re: Question Cocoa Beach   Mon Jul 19 2004 10:22 AM
. * * ULL vs THE WAVE bobbi   Mon Jul 19 2004 11:04 AM
. * * Re: Question caneman   Mon Jul 19 2004 10:39 AM
. * * Re: Question Cocoa Beach   Mon Jul 19 2004 11:25 AM
. * * Re: 97L doug   Mon Jul 19 2004 12:09 PM
. * * Re: 97L Alex K   Mon Jul 19 2004 12:57 PM
. * * Re: 97L scottsvb1   Mon Jul 19 2004 01:08 PM
. * * Re: 97L Rabbit   Mon Jul 19 2004 01:47 PM
. * * Re: 97L Steve hirsch.   Mon Jul 19 2004 12:50 PM
. * * 97L-Models LI Phil   Mon Jul 19 2004 01:00 PM
. * * Re: Question Rabbit   Mon Jul 19 2004 12:05 PM
. * * 97L on IR WV Loop LI Phil   Mon Jul 19 2004 11:02 AM
. * * Link to Bouy CocoaBeach   Sun Jul 18 2004 02:03 PM
. * * Possible Developments??? GR FLA   Sun Jul 18 2004 10:59 AM
. * * Re: Possible Developments??? LI Phil   Sun Jul 18 2004 01:52 PM
. * * Re: Possible Developments??? Steve Hirschb.   Sun Jul 18 2004 02:04 PM
. * * Re: Possible Developments??? James88   Sun Jul 18 2004 02:26 PM
. * * "my wave" down there LoisCane   Sun Jul 18 2004 03:19 PM
. * * EVERYBODY'S WAVE!!! GR FLA   Sun Jul 18 2004 04:33 PM
. * * Re: EVERYBODY'S WAVE!!! LoisCane   Sun Jul 18 2004 05:06 PM
. * * IT'S MY WAVE! LI Phil   Sun Jul 18 2004 05:39 PM
. * * Gulf Storm Soon GR FLA   Sun Jul 18 2004 05:50 PM
. * * Re: Gulf Storm Soon Old Sailor   Sun Jul 18 2004 09:43 PM
. * * Re: Gulf Storm Soon DustDuchess   Sun Jul 18 2004 07:47 PM
. * * Re: Gulf Storm Soon *DELETED* Storm Cooper   Sun Jul 18 2004 05:54 PM
. * * Revised Number of Storms? rmbjoe1954   Sun Jul 18 2004 06:24 PM
. * * Re: Revised Number of Storms? LI Phil   Sun Jul 18 2004 06:35 PM
. * * Re: Gulf Storm Soon GR FLA   Sun Jul 18 2004 05:58 PM
. * * Re: Possible Developments??? Rich B   Sun Jul 18 2004 02:22 PM
. * * Waves Coming off Africa Anonymous   Wed Jul 14 2004 08:27 AM
. * * Re: Waves Coming off Africa LI Phil   Wed Jul 14 2004 10:45 AM
. * * Re: Waves Coming off Africa James88   Wed Jul 14 2004 11:53 AM
. * * Re: Waves Coming off Africa Steve hirsch.   Wed Jul 14 2004 12:04 PM
. * * Re: Analysis mp3reed   Sun Jul 11 2004 07:56 PM
. * * Re: Analysis Storm Cooper   Sun Jul 11 2004 08:19 PM
. * * circumstances and other forums HanKFranK   Sun Jul 11 2004 10:24 PM
. * * Re: circumstances and other forums h2ocean   Sun Jul 11 2004 11:20 PM
. * * Great explanation of MJO LI Phil   Mon Jul 12 2004 10:32 AM
. * * Re: Great explanation of MJO Steve   Mon Jul 12 2004 01:13 PM
. * * Steve-wrong link! LI Phil   Mon Jul 12 2004 01:16 PM
. * * Re: Steve-wrong link! Anonymous   Mon Jul 12 2004 01:18 PM
. * * Re: Steve-wrong link! andy1tom   Mon Jul 12 2004 01:59 PM
. * * 12N / 82W CocoaBeach   Mon Jul 12 2004 03:19 PM
. * * 3 Areas LI Phil   Mon Jul 12 2004 03:29 PM
. * * Re: 3 Areas Anonymous   Tue Jul 13 2004 10:17 AM
. * * Re: 3 Areas Robert   Tue Jul 13 2004 10:38 AM
. * * Re: 3 Areas LI Phil   Tue Jul 13 2004 11:49 AM
. * * Re: 3 Areas...look again at the SW Carib as in NOW Bobbi   Tue Jul 13 2004 12:52 PM
. * * Re: 3 Areas...look again at the SW Carib as in NOW Old Sailor   Tue Jul 13 2004 01:19 PM
. * * Re: 3 Areas...look again at the SW Carib as in NOW Old Sailor   Wed Jul 14 2004 10:32 PM
. * * Happy Birthday Old Sailor LI Phil   Wed Jul 14 2004 10:49 PM
. * * Just Some Notes Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Jul 14 2004 11:51 PM
. * * Re: Just Some Notes LoisCane   Thu Jul 15 2004 08:12 AM
. * * All Quiet on the Tropic Front LI Phil   Thu Jul 15 2004 10:29 AM
. * * Re: All Quiet on the Tropic Front James88   Thu Jul 15 2004 10:38 AM
. * * Re: All Quiet on the Tropic Front JustMe   Thu Jul 15 2004 11:47 AM
. * * Re: All Quiet on the Tropic Front Steve hirsch.   Thu Jul 15 2004 12:06 PM
. * * Commentary... LI Phil   Thu Jul 15 2004 12:25 PM
. * * Re: Commentary... Steve hirsch.   Thu Jul 15 2004 12:34 PM
. * * Re: Commentary... ROB H   Thu Jul 15 2004 01:42 PM
. * * Re: Commentary... Robert   Thu Jul 15 2004 12:42 PM
. * * Question about the Bermuda High. Cocoa Beach   Thu Jul 15 2004 01:27 PM
. * * Re: Question about the Bermuda High. GR MIAMI   Thu Jul 15 2004 02:47 PM
. * * For Cocoa & GR Miami LI Phil   Thu Jul 15 2004 02:59 PM
. * * Great Article Cocoa Beach   Thu Jul 15 2004 03:15 PM
. * * Observations Cycloneye   Thu Jul 15 2004 02:55 PM
. * * Re: Observations Steve Hirschb.   Thu Jul 15 2004 03:00 PM
. * * Re: Observations James88   Thu Jul 15 2004 03:19 PM
. * * Unnamed Storms LI Phil   Thu Jul 15 2004 12:56 PM
. * * Re: Unnamed Storms Anonymous   Thu Jul 15 2004 05:12 PM
. * * Re:site prob summercyclone   Thu Jul 15 2004 05:17 PM
. * * Re:site prob Old Sailor   Thu Jul 15 2004 05:22 PM
. * * A Possibility For Development? LI Phil   Thu Jul 15 2004 08:24 PM
. * * My Thoughts on E ATL Wave JasonM603   Thu Jul 15 2004 08:20 PM
. * * Re: My Thoughts on E ATL Wave LI Phil   Thu Jul 15 2004 08:45 PM
. * * East atlantic wave potential? Cycloneye   Thu Jul 15 2004 09:15 PM
. * * Re: East atlantic wave potential? LI Phil   Thu Jul 15 2004 10:54 PM
. * * Re: East atlantic wave potential? Anonymous   Fri Jul 16 2004 11:36 AM
. * * Disturbance south of Coo-bah LI Phil   Fri Jul 16 2004 12:31 PM
. * * Re: Just an interesting pic Anonymous   Fri Jul 16 2004 12:50 PM
. * * Another wave bites the dust Cycloneye   Fri Jul 16 2004 02:11 PM
. * * Re: Another wave bites the dust LI Phil   Fri Jul 16 2004 02:47 PM
. * * Re: Another wave bites the dust James88   Fri Jul 16 2004 03:49 PM
. * * cuba and atlantic Rabbit   Fri Jul 16 2004 02:38 PM
. * * strong storms over south florida and watching the wave bobbi   Fri Jul 16 2004 02:32 PM
. * * Re: Looks good to me! Best so far... Anonymous   Fri Jul 16 2004 02:33 PM
. * * 7/15/04 Tropics... Steve   Thu Jul 15 2004 11:47 PM
. * * Re: 7/15/04 Tropics...my thoughts LoisCane   Fri Jul 16 2004 06:55 AM
. * * Re: 7/15/04 Tropics...my thoughts Steve hirsch.   Fri Jul 16 2004 08:00 AM
. * * Tropical Goings On... LI Phil   Fri Jul 16 2004 10:23 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Goings On... James88   Fri Jul 16 2004 11:09 AM
. * * wouldnt it be funny if tropics heated up? bobbi   Fri Jul 16 2004 10:43 AM
. * * A Little spin below Cuba? Colleen A.   Fri Jul 16 2004 11:03 AM
. * * Re: A Little spin below Cuba? Steve Hirschb.   Fri Jul 16 2004 12:26 PM
. * * Forgotten Password? For Steve H. LI Phil   Fri Jul 16 2004 04:04 PM
. * * 3 things bobbi   Fri Jul 16 2004 04:29 PM
. * * ATL wave...no show Rob_M   Fri Jul 16 2004 04:52 PM
. * * Re: ATL wave...no show LI Phil   Fri Jul 16 2004 05:23 PM
. * * Re: ATL wave...no show Rob_M   Fri Jul 16 2004 08:47 PM
. * * Re: ATL wave...no show Cycloneye   Fri Jul 16 2004 06:30 PM
. * * Re: ATL wave...no show Steve Hirschb.   Fri Jul 16 2004 07:29 PM
. * * Re: ATL wave...no show LI Phil   Fri Jul 16 2004 08:24 PM
. * * Re: ATL wave...no show javlin   Fri Jul 16 2004 08:55 PM
. * * Re: ATL wave...no show LI Phil   Fri Jul 16 2004 09:58 PM
. * * Re: ATL wave...no show Rob_M   Fri Jul 16 2004 10:31 PM
. * * Saturday AM LI Phil   Sat Jul 17 2004 11:45 AM
. * * Re: Saturday AM Steve hirsch.   Sat Jul 17 2004 12:03 PM
. * * Re: Saturday PM Cycloneye   Sat Jul 17 2004 12:28 PM
. * * Is "my" wave showing signs of life? LI Phil   Sat Jul 17 2004 05:12 PM
. * * Re: Is "my" wave showing signs of life? Rabbit   Sat Jul 17 2004 05:43 PM
. * * Morning Discussion on Wave JasonM603   Mon Jul 19 2004 05:19 AM
. * * Re: Morning Discussion on Wave LoisCane   Mon Jul 19 2004 07:53 AM
. * * Re: Morning Discussion on Wave Tropics Guy   Mon Jul 19 2004 09:42 AM
. * * Morning Discussion on Wave & 1969-Thanks Bobbi   Mon Jul 19 2004 09:51 AM
. * * Re: Morning Discussion on Wave & 1969-Thanks Anonymous   Mon Jul 19 2004 10:23 AM
. * * 97L LI Phil   Mon Jul 19 2004 10:32 AM
. * * Re: New CV wave Tropics Guy   Mon Jul 19 2004 10:12 AM
. * * 97L Jamiewx   Mon Jul 19 2004 10:20 AM
. * * Re: Morning Discussion on Wave Cycloneye   Mon Jul 19 2004 07:02 AM
. * * Re: Morning Discussion on Wave Cycloneye   Mon Jul 19 2004 07:29 AM
. * * lowering.. LoisCane   Sat Jul 17 2004 09:57 PM
. * * Re: lowering.. Storm Cooper   Sat Jul 17 2004 10:45 PM
. * * Re: Is "my" wave showing signs of life? JasonM603   Sat Jul 17 2004 08:18 PM
. * * Re: Is "my" wave showing signs of life? Cycloneye   Sat Jul 17 2004 08:31 PM
. * * URL LI Phil   Sat Jul 17 2004 05:48 PM
. * * Re: Is "my" wave showing signs of life? James88   Sat Jul 17 2004 05:40 PM
. * * What about the next wave to emerge Africa? Cycloneye   Fri Jul 16 2004 08:34 PM
. * * Re:Correlation Between Florida fires and the 'Season' rmbjoe1954   Fri Jul 16 2004 06:19 PM
. * * Re: ATL wave...no show James88   Fri Jul 16 2004 05:08 PM
. * * Re: Passwords Anonymous   Fri Jul 16 2004 04:38 PM
. * * Re: A Little spin below Cuba? Anonymous   Fri Jul 16 2004 11:14 AM
. * * Re: 7/15/04 Tropics...my thoughts James88   Fri Jul 16 2004 10:14 AM
. * * analyze this..... bobbi   Thu Jul 15 2004 10:34 AM
. * * Re: 3 Areas...look again at the SW Carib as in NOW LI Phil   Tue Jul 13 2004 01:40 PM
. * * see if it sits bobbi   Tue Jul 13 2004 01:48 PM
. * * Re: see if it sits Anonymous   Tue Jul 13 2004 04:07 PM
. * * Re: see if it sits LI Phil   Tue Jul 13 2004 05:38 PM
. * * irritating small things HanKFranK   Tue Jul 13 2004 06:31 PM
. * * you sound testy hf, watching loops here Bobbi   Tue Jul 13 2004 08:43 PM
. * * Re: you sound testy hf, watching loops here Anonymous   Wed Jul 14 2004 01:42 AM
. * * Re: you sound testy hf, watching loops here JasonM603   Wed Jul 14 2004 03:34 AM
. * * Several days time? James88   Wed Jul 14 2004 05:49 AM
. * * Re: Several days time? JustMe   Wed Jul 14 2004 07:53 AM
. * * EL NINO LONNY307   Wed Jul 14 2004 08:23 AM
. * * Re: EL NINO LI Phil   Wed Jul 14 2004 12:14 PM
. * * Re: EL NINO Steve   Wed Jul 14 2004 03:24 PM
. * * Re: EL NINO Steve Hirschb.   Wed Jul 14 2004 04:45 PM
. * * Re: EL NINO Steve Hirschb.   Wed Jul 14 2004 04:48 PM
. * * Re: EL NINO LI Phil   Wed Jul 14 2004 03:58 PM
. * * Hot in Florida Bobbi   Wed Jul 14 2004 04:23 PM
. * * A repeat of 1998? James88   Wed Jul 14 2004 04:53 PM
. * * Re: A repeat of 1998? Bobbi   Wed Jul 14 2004 04:57 PM
. * * Re: A repeat of 1998? Steve   Wed Jul 14 2004 05:18 PM
. * * Re: A repeat of 1998? HanKFranK   Wed Jul 14 2004 05:46 PM
. * * Re: A repeat of 1998? LI Phil   Wed Jul 14 2004 05:28 PM
. * * Phil...wake up and smell the chamomille tea Bobbi   Wed Jul 14 2004 05:55 PM
. * * other late starts Rabbit   Wed Jul 14 2004 05:38 PM
. * * Re: other late starts HanKFranK   Wed Jul 14 2004 05:53 PM
. * * the source... Rabbit   Wed Jul 14 2004 06:13 PM
. * * If you actually took the time to READ my posts LI Phil   Wed Jul 14 2004 06:34 PM
. * * Re: the source... Rabbit   Wed Jul 14 2004 06:20 PM
. * * Re: A repeat of 1998? James88   Wed Jul 14 2004 05:05 PM
. * * Re: EL NINO JasonM603   Wed Jul 14 2004 12:07 PM
. * * Re: Several days time? Steve hirsch.   Wed Jul 14 2004 07:53 AM
. * * testy as buddha HanKFranK   Wed Jul 14 2004 12:30 AM
. * * Re: irritating small things LI Phil   Tue Jul 13 2004 06:50 PM
. * * Re: see if it sits Steve   Tue Jul 13 2004 05:10 PM
. * * Re: 1999 summercyclone   Wed Jul 14 2004 10:41 AM
. * * Re: Gulf micro-low summercyclone   Mon Jul 12 2004 03:51 PM
. * * Re: Gulf micro-low Steve   Mon Jul 12 2004 04:16 PM
. * * Possible Carib system and flooding in Nepal too! Bobbi   Mon Jul 12 2004 05:03 PM
. * * nothing doing, still analysis time HanKFranK   Mon Jul 12 2004 08:46 PM
. * * Re: nothing doing, still analysis time LI Phil   Mon Jul 12 2004 08:58 PM
. * * CV wave too low Bobbi   Tue Jul 13 2004 08:15 AM
. * * NE Gulf Bobbi   Mon Jul 12 2004 02:40 PM
. * * hey to As IF lol bobbi   Mon Jul 12 2004 07:53 AM
. * * Re: Analysis Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Jul 11 2004 05:22 PM
. * * Re: Analysis Anonymous   Sun Jul 11 2004 11:08 PM
. * * Re: Analysis Steve Hirschb.   Sun Jul 11 2004 07:12 PM
. * * Wave in GOM and a possible circulation center ...deja vu LoisCane   Sun Jul 11 2004 07:43 PM
. * * Re: Analysis Anonymous   Sun Jul 11 2004 01:19 PM
. * * Re: Analysis LI Phil   Sat Jul 10 2004 06:36 PM
. * * Re: Analysis Cycloneye   Sat Jul 10 2004 07:21 PM
. * * Re: Analysis rmbjoe1954   Sun Jul 11 2004 07:49 AM
. * * Re: Analysis James88   Sun Jul 11 2004 08:07 AM
. * * Re: Analysis Rabbit   Sun Jul 11 2004 10:36 AM
. * * Re: Analysis LI Phil   Sun Jul 11 2004 11:12 AM
. * * Re: Analysis tornado00   Sun Jul 11 2004 12:05 PM
. * * What did I miss here.. why do you think there will be nothing til August? LoisCane   Sun Jul 11 2004 01:30 PM
. * * Re: What did I miss here.. why do you think there will be nothing til August? h2ocean   Sat Jul 17 2004 08:50 PM
. * * Re: What did I miss here.. why do you think there will be nothing til August? Old Sailor   Sat Jul 17 2004 09:28 PM
. * * Re: What did I miss here.. why do you think there will be nothing til August? Steve Hirschb..   Sun Jul 11 2004 04:31 PM
. * * Climo LI Phil   Sun Jul 11 2004 05:22 PM
. * * Re: What did I miss here.. why do you think there will be nothing til August? James88   Sun Jul 11 2004 05:19 PM
. * * Re: Analysis James88   Sun Jul 11 2004 11:56 AM
. * * Re: Analysis James88   Sun Jul 11 2004 11:08 AM

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