Well Phil you might be half way right that it may develop once pass the islands or the 70 mark.The front seems to be keeping the low to the N at check.It does not seem to be creating to much shear in the possible future track.The dry air out front could be a problem maybe.It seems the little wave to the N for the time being is keeping the track wet somewhat.If that little wave can survive maybe the other will.GOM I would not bet on it yet.
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