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Newly tagged Invest 91L in the Central American Gyre heading towards MX/TX, a slow and sprawling flood threat. Bahamas hybrid well E of FL 10%/30% odd and expected to track back to the W across FL or SE US this week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 292 (Idalia) , Major: 292 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 292 (Idalia) Major: 292 (Idalia)
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Jason
Unregistered




7AM Discussion
      Mon Aug 05 2002 12:39 PM

Bertha downgraded to a tropical depression

Slidell National Weather Service

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA NORTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...THE MISSISSIPPI COAST AND PEARL RIVER COUNTY MISSISSIPPI TODAY.

National Hurricane Center

AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE BROAD AND POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 90.0 WEST OR IN THE VICINITY OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA.

BERTHA HAS CONTINUED TO MEANDER OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.

Bertha has just been downgraded from a tropical storm to tropical deression status. Bertha should have been downgraded at 1:00AM since there was no evidence of 40MPH winds over land. Winds will continue to slightly begin to diminish. HOWEVER, convection is blossoming over the Mississippi Sound. The winds will diminsh but that doesn't say anything about rainfall. Now I know that people are waking up in Louisiana thinking that we have dodged another bullet. But look to your east, south of Mobile. A training affect is occuring oer the Mississippi and Alabama coasts.

Currently, the center of circulation is nearly stationary. This is in response to a developinga 500MB ridge over the Gulf of Mexico. But we still have the high to the north and it will likely begin to influence the track once again rather soon. A slow drift to the WNW should begin later today or tonight. The rain bad south of Mobile will also begin to move east. Residents near the MS/AL can expect heavy rains for the next 24 hours. Heavy rain will likely begin over southeast Louisiana late tonight or early tomorrow morning. New Orleans has not dodged a bullet just yet. Tropical depression Bertha will likely bring heavy rain to the city and 6-8 inches of rainfall are stil possible. You can also expect frequent lightning once the rain moves over the area. Now the worst case scenario for SE LA would be if the center stalls while the heavy rains sit over the area. The city would be in bad shape if this were to occur. But the current thinking is that the heavy rains will not stall over the area...but we cant rule this out. Either way, we will definitely get a lot of heavy rain and flooding is certainly possible. The next discussion will be available a approx. 12:30 PM central time.

CURRENT ACTIVE EPAC STORMS...


NO ACTIVE STORMS

FORECASTER Jason Moreland, TWWFT



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DISCLAIMER: THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE LISTEN TO YOUR LOCAL NEWS OR THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

http://www.tropicalweatherwatchers.com

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropical Storm Bertha Forms CFHCAdministrator Mon Aug 05 2002 12:39 PM
. * * Test on 99L garyb   Mon Aug 05 2002 05:26 PM
. * * Re: Test on 99L Anonymous   Mon Aug 05 2002 06:55 PM
. * * Joe Anonymous   Mon Aug 05 2002 06:57 PM
. * * WE HAVE TD 3 WXMAN RICHIE   Mon Aug 05 2002 08:59 PM
. * * Low off South Carolina Alex k   Mon Aug 05 2002 03:14 PM
. * * 99L Anonymous (HF)   Mon Aug 05 2002 03:32 PM
. * * SE area of interest BabyCat   Mon Aug 05 2002 03:48 PM
. * * Re: SE area of interest Jason M   Mon Aug 05 2002 03:49 PM
. * * Re: 99L Anonymous   Mon Aug 05 2002 03:47 PM
. * * Re: Low off South Carolina Anonymous   Mon Aug 05 2002 03:19 PM
. * * Bertha Update Jason   Mon Aug 05 2002 04:18 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms AnonymousCarl   Mon Aug 05 2002 04:06 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms Steve   Mon Aug 05 2002 04:20 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms Mruck   Mon Aug 05 2002 03:05 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms ShawnS   Mon Aug 05 2002 03:31 AM
. * * A plot of surface data and radar loops from New Orleans at Houstontracker   Mon Aug 05 2002 04:22 AM
. * * Hey Shawn... Steve   Mon Aug 05 2002 04:27 AM
. * * Ended Up Being Wrong After All ShawnS   Mon Aug 05 2002 11:30 AM
. * * Re: Ended Up Being Wrong After All nickd   Mon Aug 05 2002 11:38 AM
. * * Re: Ended Up Being Wrong After All ShawnS   Mon Aug 05 2002 11:46 AM
. * * 7AM Discussion Jason   Mon Aug 05 2002 12:39 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms Joe   Mon Aug 05 2002 03:45 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms ShawnS   Mon Aug 05 2002 02:42 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms ShawnS   Mon Aug 05 2002 02:56 AM

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