Rafael continues to decouple over the Gulf. Meanwhile we are keeping a watch on Invest 98L around the Bahamas and potentially a new low forming in the Caribbean.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any
31 (Milton)
, Major:
31 (Milton)
Florida - Any: 31 (Milton)
Major:
31 (Milton)
Well, 98L is not ready to give up yet! Check out the latest TWO:-
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY AROUND A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 220 MILES SOUTH OF MONTAUK LONG ISLAND. THIS SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULFSTREAM. SURFACE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 MPH...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. IF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...THEN A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY..AND ADVISORIES WOULD BE INITIATED. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH THIS MORNING AND GRADUALLY INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED LATER TODAY...AND POSSIBLY MERGE WITH A COLD FRONT BY TONIGHT.
ESLEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
If it develops it would obviously be short lived, but it would be a tropical entity nonetheless! Looks like July may get a tropical system after all. It is unlikely that it would reach tropical storm status, but who knows, maybe it will surprise us.
As earlier posts have mentioned, this does bear some similarity to Henri in '85.
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