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Recon has departed Keesler to check out #93L in the SW Gulf. #92L is now just inland along SE GA coast. June systems can dump lots of rain.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 297 (Idalia) , Major: 297 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 297 (Idalia) Major: 297 (Idalia)

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News Talkback >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered

99L
Mon Aug 05 2002 11:32 AM

system off the coast here is a go.. pretty sure of that. d2.0 on its last ssd take. it has the convective organization it needs to get going now. too bad i'm off on vacation for the rest of the week. thats what i call the andrew contingency.. andrew being the first and a long series of storms that tend to form when i'm not around to watch.
two camps of thought on 99L/future cristobal.. the avn horde that cries out phase, recurve! and the nogaps and euro types that dont toss it out to sea and keep it loitering offshore until the ridge builds back. i've got mixed feelings. avn has been right a lot in recent times when it has wanted to take systems out.. while i can certainly see how northeast troughs are a lot less monstrous than in years past. also there's the asian teleconnection... storms have been running mostly west over there, which teleconnects to west over here (still in the 6-10 day period after fengshen).
all i can say is watch it closely. the models are doing their usual things, my only question is: will the next storm do the usual thing.
bertha is on the wane. it has tracked too far inland for it to maintain much strength when it finally does turn west. so far it has tracked mostly NW. offshore convection is still strong though. was only a marginal tropical storm for a few hours. so much for big bertha.
the central atlantic is looking more appealing than yesterday in terms of convective activity, but still just broad/weak general low pressure. the next amplification on the westerlies will likely stir the convection up more, so it is an area to keep in mind.. though not for a threat. only potential threat at this point is off the south carolina coast.
betcha theyll recon 99L this afternoon and take it up a notch.
HF 1511z05august

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Tropical Storm Bertha Forms	CFHC	Mon Aug 05 2002 11:32 AM
Test on 99L	garyb	Mon Aug 05 2002 01:26 PM
Re: Test on 99L	Anonymous	Mon Aug 05 2002 02:55 PM
Joe	Anonymous	Mon Aug 05 2002 02:57 PM
WE HAVE TD 3	WXMAN RICHIE	Mon Aug 05 2002 04:59 PM
Low off South Carolina	Alex k	Mon Aug 05 2002 11:14 AM
99L	Anonymous (HF)	Mon Aug 05 2002 11:32 AM
SE area of interest	BabyCat	Mon Aug 05 2002 11:48 AM
Re: SE area of interest	Jason M	Mon Aug 05 2002 11:49 AM
Re: 99L	Anonymous	Mon Aug 05 2002 11:47 AM
Re: Low off South Carolina	Anonymous	Mon Aug 05 2002 11:19 AM
Bertha Update	Jason	Mon Aug 05 2002 12:18 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms	AnonymousCarl	Mon Aug 05 2002 12:06 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms	Steve	Mon Aug 05 2002 12:20 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms	Mruck	Sun Aug 04 2002 11:05 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms	ShawnS	Sun Aug 04 2002 11:31 PM
A plot of surface data and radar loops from New Orleans at	Houstontracker	Mon Aug 05 2002 12:22 AM
Hey Shawn...	Steve	Mon Aug 05 2002 12:27 AM
Ended Up Being Wrong After All	ShawnS	Mon Aug 05 2002 07:30 AM
Re: Ended Up Being Wrong After All	nickd	Mon Aug 05 2002 07:38 AM
Re: Ended Up Being Wrong After All	ShawnS	Mon Aug 05 2002 07:46 AM
7AM Discussion	Jason	Mon Aug 05 2002 08:39 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms	Joe	Sun Aug 04 2002 11:45 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms	ShawnS	Sun Aug 04 2002 10:42 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms	ShawnS	Sun Aug 04 2002 10:56 PM

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