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Newly tagged Invest 91L in the Central American Gyre heading towards MX/TX, a slow and sprawling flood threat. Bahamas hybrid well E of FL 10%/30% odd and expected to track back to the W across FL or SE US this week.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 292 (Idalia) , Major: 292 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 292 (Idalia) Major: 292 (Idalia)

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News Talkback >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered

99L
Mon Aug 05 2002 03:32 PM

system off the coast here is a go.. pretty sure of that. d2.0 on its last ssd take. it has the convective organization it needs to get going now. too bad i'm off on vacation for the rest of the week. thats what i call the andrew contingency.. andrew being the first and a long series of storms that tend to form when i'm not around to watch.
two camps of thought on 99L/future cristobal.. the avn horde that cries out phase, recurve! and the nogaps and euro types that dont toss it out to sea and keep it loitering offshore until the ridge builds back. i've got mixed feelings. avn has been right a lot in recent times when it has wanted to take systems out.. while i can certainly see how northeast troughs are a lot less monstrous than in years past. also there's the asian teleconnection... storms have been running mostly west over there, which teleconnects to west over here (still in the 6-10 day period after fengshen).
all i can say is watch it closely. the models are doing their usual things, my only question is: will the next storm do the usual thing.
bertha is on the wane. it has tracked too far inland for it to maintain much strength when it finally does turn west. so far it has tracked mostly NW. offshore convection is still strong though. was only a marginal tropical storm for a few hours. so much for big bertha.
the central atlantic is looking more appealing than yesterday in terms of convective activity, but still just broad/weak general low pressure. the next amplification on the westerlies will likely stir the convection up more, so it is an area to keep in mind.. though not for a threat. only potential threat at this point is off the south carolina coast.
betcha theyll recon 99L this afternoon and take it up a notch.
HF 1511z05august

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Tropical Storm Bertha Forms	CFHC	Mon Aug 05 2002 03:32 PM
Test on 99L	garyb	Mon Aug 05 2002 05:26 PM
Re: Test on 99L	Anonymous	Mon Aug 05 2002 06:55 PM
Joe	Anonymous	Mon Aug 05 2002 06:57 PM
WE HAVE TD 3	WXMAN RICHIE	Mon Aug 05 2002 08:59 PM
Low off South Carolina	Alex k	Mon Aug 05 2002 03:14 PM
99L	Anonymous (HF)	Mon Aug 05 2002 03:32 PM
SE area of interest	BabyCat	Mon Aug 05 2002 03:48 PM
Re: SE area of interest	Jason M	Mon Aug 05 2002 03:49 PM
Re: 99L	Anonymous	Mon Aug 05 2002 03:47 PM
Re: Low off South Carolina	Anonymous	Mon Aug 05 2002 03:19 PM
Bertha Update	Jason	Mon Aug 05 2002 04:18 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms	AnonymousCarl	Mon Aug 05 2002 04:06 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms	Steve	Mon Aug 05 2002 04:20 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms	Mruck	Mon Aug 05 2002 03:05 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms	ShawnS	Mon Aug 05 2002 03:31 AM
A plot of surface data and radar loops from New Orleans at	Houstontracker	Mon Aug 05 2002 04:22 AM
Hey Shawn...	Steve	Mon Aug 05 2002 04:27 AM
Ended Up Being Wrong After All	ShawnS	Mon Aug 05 2002 11:30 AM
Re: Ended Up Being Wrong After All	nickd	Mon Aug 05 2002 11:38 AM
Re: Ended Up Being Wrong After All	ShawnS	Mon Aug 05 2002 11:46 AM
7AM Discussion	Jason	Mon Aug 05 2002 12:39 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms	Joe	Mon Aug 05 2002 03:45 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms	ShawnS	Mon Aug 05 2002 02:42 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms	ShawnS	Mon Aug 05 2002 02:56 AM

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