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Gulf area up to 60% chance for weak development. A new Atlantic system is now up with a 20% chance for development, FL east coast and GA coast should watch for mid-late this week.**
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 291 (Idalia) , Major: 291 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 291 (Idalia) Major: 291 (Idalia)
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News Talkback >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback
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Jason M
Weather Watcher


Reged:
Posts: 39
Loc: New Orleans
Re: SE area of interest
      Mon Aug 05 2002 03:49 PM

FORECAST POSTED: 8/05/02/ 11:30 AM EDT

ATLANTIC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK:

We are no longer writing discussions on tropical depression Bertha. The center of circulation is moving well inland and the heaviest rains should begin to diminish later today.

Now the attention shifts to the east coast...

Latest Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) numbers is now up to 2.0 for the low off the east coast. In addition, the National Hurricane Center will be sending out a reconnaissance aircraft into the low pressure system tomorrow to look for any signs of development. The low is becoming quite impressive on satellite imagery. In fact, we will likely have our next named storm within 24 hours.

The majority of the forecast models take this low south and then NE out to sea. This track seems fairly reasonable since a high over the east will block the low from moving west. In addition, an upper level troough is moving south and is expected to pull the low northeast. Now there is always the chance that the trough could miss the low but it does seem unlikely at this point. However, the east coast should continue closely monitor this developing low. Bermuda and Newfoundland will also have to watch this low as they may be in the path of this developing storm.

The rest of the Atlantic basin is quiet. There is nothing else in the Gulf of Mexico or Caribbean Sea. There is one weak wave passing near Jamaica but it won't do a whole lot. There is another tropical wave just east of the Leeward Islands that will give them some showers. If we look way out into the eastern Atlantic, you will find a wave with a small flare up of convection. However, this wave is moving into an area of sinking air. Therefore, tropical development is not expected.

The next update will be posted between 5-7PM central time.

FORECASTER: Jason Moreland



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DISCLAIMER: THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE LISTEN TO YOUR LOCAL NEWS OR THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropical Storm Bertha Forms CFHCAdministrator Mon Aug 05 2002 03:49 PM
. * * Test on 99L garyb   Mon Aug 05 2002 05:26 PM
. * * Re: Test on 99L Anonymous   Mon Aug 05 2002 06:55 PM
. * * Joe Anonymous   Mon Aug 05 2002 06:57 PM
. * * WE HAVE TD 3 WXMAN RICHIE   Mon Aug 05 2002 08:59 PM
. * * Low off South Carolina Alex k   Mon Aug 05 2002 03:14 PM
. * * 99L Anonymous (HF)   Mon Aug 05 2002 03:32 PM
. * * SE area of interest BabyCat   Mon Aug 05 2002 03:48 PM
. * * Re: SE area of interest Jason M   Mon Aug 05 2002 03:49 PM
. * * Re: 99L Anonymous   Mon Aug 05 2002 03:47 PM
. * * Re: Low off South Carolina Anonymous   Mon Aug 05 2002 03:19 PM
. * * Bertha Update Jason   Mon Aug 05 2002 04:18 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms AnonymousCarl   Mon Aug 05 2002 04:06 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms Steve   Mon Aug 05 2002 04:20 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms Mruck   Mon Aug 05 2002 03:05 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms ShawnS   Mon Aug 05 2002 03:31 AM
. * * A plot of surface data and radar loops from New Orleans at Houstontracker   Mon Aug 05 2002 04:22 AM
. * * Hey Shawn... Steve   Mon Aug 05 2002 04:27 AM
. * * Ended Up Being Wrong After All ShawnS   Mon Aug 05 2002 11:30 AM
. * * Re: Ended Up Being Wrong After All nickd   Mon Aug 05 2002 11:38 AM
. * * Re: Ended Up Being Wrong After All ShawnS   Mon Aug 05 2002 11:46 AM
. * * 7AM Discussion Jason   Mon Aug 05 2002 12:39 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms Joe   Mon Aug 05 2002 03:45 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms ShawnS   Mon Aug 05 2002 02:42 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms ShawnS   Mon Aug 05 2002 02:56 AM

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