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The broad Gulf area is now up to 70/70% for development while the Atlantic area is 10/30% for development. Neither are marked as an invest area yet, but the Gulf may be tagged later today. Texas should watch the Gulf area for a large rain event. Atlantic is FL through the Carolinas depending on how soon (if at all) the system develops, sooner implies further north.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 292 (Idalia) , Major: 292 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 292 (Idalia) Major: 292 (Idalia)

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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC

suspicion
Wed Jul 28 2004 10:05 PM

there's an awful lot of low level convergence near the florida peninsula. notice that low cloud motions in the gulf are from the west, while in the atlantic they're out of the east to the decaying trough oriented nne from the bahamas. several models are alluding to disturbed weather there, but none are really taking off. i have to admit that upper conditions are decidedly neutral, with no real evacuation mechanism in place for convective growth.. unless an outflow jet from whatever thunderstorm activity near south florida were to hook into the nearby upper flow.
away east the disturbance between hispaniola and bermuda looks about like yesterday. not making any hay right now.. the trades are blasting away underneath the upper low and it's corresponding convection enhancement area and will have to subside some before anything can get started there.. closer in as the trough remnants near the bahamas to off hatteras decay they could potentially spawn something else along the lines of erstwhile 98L.
the MDR out in the east atlantic has nothing on the burner. only other thing of interest to me is that the trades are weaker at low latitudes in the caribbean and the itcz is inching northward near panama.. nothing progged on the models but something could try to sneak in down there next few days. end of the month gfs has yet another good wave coming off africa. it's hinting at development and has been with some consistency, so it will at least be worth watching.
that's the story. nothing is happening just yet.
HF 2205z28july

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Is There Something Brewing East of Bahamas?	MikeC	Wed Jul 28 2004 10:05 PM
Re: Is There Something Brewing East of Bahamas?	Anonymous	Thu Jul 29 2004 01:20 PM
Re: Is There Something Brewing East of Bahamas?	James88	Thu Jul 29 2004 02:15 PM
Re: Is There Something Brewing East of Bahamas?	LI Phil	Thu Jul 29 2004 02:25 PM
Re: Is There Something Brewing East of Bahamas?	caneman	Thu Jul 29 2004 02:39 PM
Re: Is There Something Brewing East of Bahamas?	joepub1	Thu Jul 29 2004 03:10 PM
There is something BIg east of the Bahamas!	rmbjoe1954	Thu Jul 29 2004 03:20 PM
Re: There is something BIg east of the Bahamas!	Steve hirsch.	Thu Jul 29 2004 03:28 PM
Re: There is something BIg east of the Bahamas!	doug	Thu Jul 29 2004 03:36 PM
Re: There is something BIg east of the Bahamas!	LI Phil	Thu Jul 29 2004 03:50 PM
Re: There is something BIg east of the Bahamas!	James88	Thu Jul 29 2004 04:13 PM
Pretty impressive	Kevin	Thu Jul 29 2004 04:23 PM
Re: There is something BIg east of the Bahamas!	Tropics Guy	Thu Jul 29 2004 04:18 PM
Models	LI Phil	Thu Jul 29 2004 04:24 PM
Re: Models	Kevin	Thu Jul 29 2004 04:36 PM
Re: There is something BIG east of the Bahamas!	rmbjoe1954	Thu Jul 29 2004 04:22 PM
99L	rmbjoe1954	Thu Jul 29 2004 04:16 PM
Re: There is something BIg east of the Bahamas!	Cycloneye	Thu Jul 29 2004 04:10 PM
real quietly watching both systems...	bobbi	Thu Jul 29 2004 03:49 PM
Re: There is something BIg east of the Bahamas!	James88	Thu Jul 29 2004 03:25 PM
Re: There is something BIg east of the Bahamas!	James88	Thu Jul 29 2004 03:26 PM
Re: There is something BIg east of the Bahamas!	joepub1	Thu Jul 29 2004 03:31 PM
Re: There is something BIg east of the Bahamas!	James88	Thu Jul 29 2004 03:33 PM
Re: There is something BIg east of the Bahamas!	joepub1	Thu Jul 29 2004 03:23 PM
Is There Something Brewing in the Gulf ?	teal61	Thu Jul 29 2004 02:45 PM
Re: Is There Something Brewing East of Bahamas?	Cycloneye	Thu Jul 29 2004 02:45 PM
Re: Is There Something Brewing East of Bahamas?	Old Sailor	Wed Jul 28 2004 02:33 AM
Re: Is There Something Brewing East of Bahamas?	Steve	Wed Jul 28 2004 02:50 AM
Re: Is There Something Brewing East of Bahamas?	James88	Wed Jul 28 2004 10:56 AM
Re: Is There Something Brewing East of Bahamas?	LoisCane	Wed Jul 28 2004 11:37 AM
Re: Is There Something Brewing East of Bahamas?	James88	Wed Jul 28 2004 12:46 PM
Re: Is There Something Brewing East of Bahamas?	doug	Wed Jul 28 2004 01:35 PM
Re: Is There Something Brewing East of Bahamas?	Steve	Wed Jul 28 2004 01:52 PM
Re: Is There Something Brewing East of Bahamas?	Old Sailor	Wed Jul 28 2004 04:49 PM
Re: Is There Something Brewing East of Bahamas?	Anonymous	Wed Jul 28 2004 05:12 PM
Discussion	Rob_M	Wed Jul 28 2004 06:42 PM
beautiful analysis Mr. Mann	bobbi	Wed Jul 28 2004 07:47 PM
Re: Discussion	Cycloneye	Wed Jul 28 2004 07:11 PM
Re: Discussion	Rob_M	Wed Jul 28 2004 11:19 PM
Re: Florida weather	doug	Wed Jul 28 2004 07:26 PM
face to face observation	bobbi	Wed Jul 28 2004 08:00 PM
my analysis	Rabbit	Wed Jul 28 2004 08:41 PM
Re: my analysis	Steve	Wed Jul 28 2004 09:15 PM
Re: my analysis	Anonymous	Wed Jul 28 2004 09:31 PM
Re: my analysis	Steve	Wed Jul 28 2004 09:41 PM
TWO	DroopGB31	Wed Jul 28 2004 09:46 PM
Re: TWO	Rich B	Wed Jul 28 2004 09:51 PM
suspicion	HanKFranK	Wed Jul 28 2004 10:05 PM
Re: TWO	DroopGB31	Wed Jul 28 2004 10:01 PM
do not try this while alone	bobbi	Wed Jul 28 2004 10:05 PM
Illin' all day	LI Phil	Wed Jul 28 2004 11:12 PM
Re: Illin' all day	Old Sailor	Thu Jul 29 2004 12:31 AM
umbrellas in florida	bobbi	Thu Jul 29 2004 12:02 AM
Re: umbrellas in florida	DustDuchess	Thu Jul 29 2004 12:45 AM
Alligators on a leash...	LI Phil	Thu Jul 29 2004 12:15 AM
Re: Alligators on a leash...	Ed Dunham	Thu Jul 29 2004 02:55 AM
Recovery of an Earlier Post	Ed Dunham	Thu Jul 29 2004 03:02 AM
Potential?	James88	Thu Jul 29 2004 10:05 AM
Re: Potential?	Rich B	Thu Jul 29 2004 10:33 AM
Re: Potential?	LoisCane	Thu Jul 29 2004 11:09 AM
Re: Potential?	James88	Thu Jul 29 2004 11:23 AM
question...	LoisCane	Thu Jul 29 2004 11:40 AM
Re: question...	James88	Thu Jul 29 2004 11:51 AM
Bahamian System	rmbjoe1954	Thu Jul 29 2004 12:46 PM
Re: Bahamian System	doug	Thu Jul 29 2004 01:02 PM
Re: Bahamian System	James88	Thu Jul 29 2004 01:08 PM
Re: Bahamian System	Steve hirsch.	Thu Jul 29 2004 01:00 PM
99L invest for east of Bahamas	Cycloneye	Thu Jul 29 2004 12:52 PM
Re: 99L invest for east of Bahamas	Alex K	Thu Jul 29 2004 04:24 PM
Re: 99L invest for east of Bahamas	rmbjoe1954	Thu Jul 29 2004 04:34 PM
Re: 99L invest for east of Bahamas	Steve hirsch.	Thu Jul 29 2004 04:37 PM
what happens if it doesnt move in the near term?	bobbi	Thu Jul 29 2004 05:10 PM
Keys comment	bobbi	Thu Jul 29 2004 06:56 PM
Re: 99L invest for east of Bahamas	Anonymous	Thu Jul 29 2004 05:05 PM
Re: 99L invest for east of Bahamas	Kevin	Thu Jul 29 2004 05:06 PM
Re: 99L invest for east of Bahamas	rmbjoe1954	Thu Jul 29 2004 05:10 PM
Re: TWO	DroopGB31	Wed Jul 28 2004 09:50 PM
Re: my analysis	DroopGB31	Wed Jul 28 2004 09:38 PM
Re: my analysis	Steve	Wed Jul 28 2004 09:45 PM
Re: my analysis	Steve hirsch.	Wed Jul 28 2004 09:30 PM
IF	bobbi	Wed Jul 28 2004 01:57 PM
Re: IF	James88	Wed Jul 28 2004 02:11 PM
Re: IF	Steve	Wed Jul 28 2004 02:45 PM
Re: IF	James88	Wed Jul 28 2004 03:39 PM
Cape Verde Season	rmbjoe1954	Wed Jul 28 2004 03:44 PM
NHC not into playing Fantasy Hurricane	bobbi	Wed Jul 28 2004 04:10 PM
Is the SAL fading a bit in Atlantic?	Cycloneye	Wed Jul 28 2004 01:04 PM

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