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Invest 94L just northeast of the ABC islands in the Caribbean moving west, 20% development chance. Another area near the Cabo Verde islands has a 20% chance to develop over the next 7 days.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 300 (Idalia) , Major: 300 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 300 (Idalia) Major: 300 (Idalia)
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HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
suspicion
      Wed Jul 28 2004 06:05 PM

there's an awful lot of low level convergence near the florida peninsula. notice that low cloud motions in the gulf are from the west, while in the atlantic they're out of the east to the decaying trough oriented nne from the bahamas. several models are alluding to disturbed weather there, but none are really taking off. i have to admit that upper conditions are decidedly neutral, with no real evacuation mechanism in place for convective growth.. unless an outflow jet from whatever thunderstorm activity near south florida were to hook into the nearby upper flow.
away east the disturbance between hispaniola and bermuda looks about like yesterday. not making any hay right now.. the trades are blasting away underneath the upper low and it's corresponding convection enhancement area and will have to subside some before anything can get started there.. closer in as the trough remnants near the bahamas to off hatteras decay they could potentially spawn something else along the lines of erstwhile 98L.
the MDR out in the east atlantic has nothing on the burner. only other thing of interest to me is that the trades are weaker at low latitudes in the caribbean and the itcz is inching northward near panama.. nothing progged on the models but something could try to sneak in down there next few days. end of the month gfs has yet another good wave coming off africa. it's hinting at development and has been with some consistency, so it will at least be worth watching.
that's the story. nothing is happening just yet.
HF 2205z28july

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Is There Something Brewing East of Bahamas? MikeCAdministrator Wed Jul 28 2004 06:05 PM
. * * Re: Is There Something Brewing East of Bahamas? Anonymous   Thu Jul 29 2004 09:20 AM
. * * Re: Is There Something Brewing East of Bahamas? James88   Thu Jul 29 2004 10:15 AM
. * * Re: Is There Something Brewing East of Bahamas? LI Phil   Thu Jul 29 2004 10:25 AM
. * * Re: Is There Something Brewing East of Bahamas? caneman   Thu Jul 29 2004 10:39 AM
. * * Re: Is There Something Brewing East of Bahamas? joepub1   Thu Jul 29 2004 11:10 AM
. * * There is something BIg east of the Bahamas! rmbjoe1954   Thu Jul 29 2004 11:20 AM
. * * Re: There is something BIg east of the Bahamas! Steve hirsch.   Thu Jul 29 2004 11:28 AM
. * * Re: There is something BIg east of the Bahamas! doug   Thu Jul 29 2004 11:36 AM
. * * Re: There is something BIg east of the Bahamas! LI Phil   Thu Jul 29 2004 11:50 AM
. * * Re: There is something BIg east of the Bahamas! James88   Thu Jul 29 2004 12:13 PM
. * * Pretty impressive Kevin   Thu Jul 29 2004 12:23 PM
. * * Re: There is something BIg east of the Bahamas! Tropics Guy   Thu Jul 29 2004 12:18 PM
. * * Models LI Phil   Thu Jul 29 2004 12:24 PM
. * * Re: Models Kevin   Thu Jul 29 2004 12:36 PM
. * * Re: There is something BIG east of the Bahamas! rmbjoe1954   Thu Jul 29 2004 12:22 PM
. * * 99L rmbjoe1954   Thu Jul 29 2004 12:16 PM
. * * Re: There is something BIg east of the Bahamas! Cycloneye   Thu Jul 29 2004 12:10 PM
. * * real quietly watching both systems... bobbi   Thu Jul 29 2004 11:49 AM
. * * Re: There is something BIg east of the Bahamas! James88   Thu Jul 29 2004 11:25 AM
. * * Re: There is something BIg east of the Bahamas! James88   Thu Jul 29 2004 11:26 AM
. * * Re: There is something BIg east of the Bahamas! joepub1   Thu Jul 29 2004 11:31 AM
. * * Re: There is something BIg east of the Bahamas! James88   Thu Jul 29 2004 11:33 AM
. * * Re: There is something BIg east of the Bahamas! joepub1   Thu Jul 29 2004 11:23 AM
. * * Is There Something Brewing in the Gulf ? teal61   Thu Jul 29 2004 10:45 AM
. * * Re: Is There Something Brewing East of Bahamas? Cycloneye   Thu Jul 29 2004 10:45 AM
. * * Re: Is There Something Brewing East of Bahamas? Old Sailor   Tue Jul 27 2004 10:33 PM
. * * Re: Is There Something Brewing East of Bahamas? Steve   Tue Jul 27 2004 10:50 PM
. * * Re: Is There Something Brewing East of Bahamas? James88   Wed Jul 28 2004 06:56 AM
. * * Re: Is There Something Brewing East of Bahamas? LoisCane   Wed Jul 28 2004 07:37 AM
. * * Re: Is There Something Brewing East of Bahamas? James88   Wed Jul 28 2004 08:46 AM
. * * Re: Is There Something Brewing East of Bahamas? doug   Wed Jul 28 2004 09:35 AM
. * * Re: Is There Something Brewing East of Bahamas? Steve   Wed Jul 28 2004 09:52 AM
. * * Re: Is There Something Brewing East of Bahamas? Old Sailor   Wed Jul 28 2004 12:49 PM
. * * Re: Is There Something Brewing East of Bahamas? Anonymous   Wed Jul 28 2004 01:12 PM
. * * Discussion Rob_M   Wed Jul 28 2004 02:42 PM
. * * beautiful analysis Mr. Mann bobbi   Wed Jul 28 2004 03:47 PM
. * * Re: Discussion Cycloneye   Wed Jul 28 2004 03:11 PM
. * * Re: Discussion Rob_M   Wed Jul 28 2004 07:19 PM
. * * Re: Florida weather doug   Wed Jul 28 2004 03:26 PM
. * * face to face observation bobbi   Wed Jul 28 2004 04:00 PM
. * * my analysis Rabbit   Wed Jul 28 2004 04:41 PM
. * * Re: my analysis Steve   Wed Jul 28 2004 05:15 PM
. * * Re: my analysis Anonymous   Wed Jul 28 2004 05:31 PM
. * * Re: my analysis Steve   Wed Jul 28 2004 05:41 PM
. * * TWO DroopGB31   Wed Jul 28 2004 05:46 PM
. * * Re: TWO Rich B   Wed Jul 28 2004 05:51 PM
. * * suspicion HanKFranK   Wed Jul 28 2004 06:05 PM
. * * Re: TWO DroopGB31   Wed Jul 28 2004 06:01 PM
. * * do not try this while alone bobbi   Wed Jul 28 2004 06:05 PM
. * * Illin' all day LI Phil   Wed Jul 28 2004 07:12 PM
. * * Re: Illin' all day Old Sailor   Wed Jul 28 2004 08:31 PM
. * * umbrellas in florida bobbi   Wed Jul 28 2004 08:02 PM
. * * Re: umbrellas in florida DustDuchess   Wed Jul 28 2004 08:45 PM
. * * Alligators on a leash... LI Phil   Wed Jul 28 2004 08:15 PM
. * * Re: Alligators on a leash... Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Jul 28 2004 10:55 PM
. * * Recovery of an Earlier Post Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Jul 28 2004 11:02 PM
. * * Potential? James88   Thu Jul 29 2004 06:05 AM
. * * Re: Potential? Rich B   Thu Jul 29 2004 06:33 AM
. * * Re: Potential? LoisCane   Thu Jul 29 2004 07:09 AM
. * * Re: Potential? James88   Thu Jul 29 2004 07:23 AM
. * * question... LoisCane   Thu Jul 29 2004 07:40 AM
. * * Re: question... James88   Thu Jul 29 2004 07:51 AM
. * * Bahamian System rmbjoe1954   Thu Jul 29 2004 08:46 AM
. * * Re: Bahamian System doug   Thu Jul 29 2004 09:02 AM
. * * Re: Bahamian System James88   Thu Jul 29 2004 09:08 AM
. * * Re: Bahamian System Steve hirsch.   Thu Jul 29 2004 09:00 AM
. * * 99L invest for east of Bahamas Cycloneye   Thu Jul 29 2004 08:52 AM
. * * Re: 99L invest for east of Bahamas Alex K   Thu Jul 29 2004 12:24 PM
. * * Re: 99L invest for east of Bahamas rmbjoe1954   Thu Jul 29 2004 12:34 PM
. * * Re: 99L invest for east of Bahamas Steve hirsch.   Thu Jul 29 2004 12:37 PM
. * * what happens if it doesnt move in the near term? bobbi   Thu Jul 29 2004 01:10 PM
. * * Keys comment bobbi   Thu Jul 29 2004 02:56 PM
. * * Re: 99L invest for east of Bahamas Anonymous   Thu Jul 29 2004 01:05 PM
. * * Re: 99L invest for east of Bahamas Kevin   Thu Jul 29 2004 01:06 PM
. * * Re: 99L invest for east of Bahamas rmbjoe1954   Thu Jul 29 2004 01:10 PM
. * * Re: TWO DroopGB31   Wed Jul 28 2004 05:50 PM
. * * Re: my analysis DroopGB31   Wed Jul 28 2004 05:38 PM
. * * Re: my analysis Steve   Wed Jul 28 2004 05:45 PM
. * * Re: my analysis Steve hirsch.   Wed Jul 28 2004 05:30 PM
. * * IF bobbi   Wed Jul 28 2004 09:57 AM
. * * Re: IF James88   Wed Jul 28 2004 10:11 AM
. * * Re: IF Steve   Wed Jul 28 2004 10:45 AM
. * * Re: IF James88   Wed Jul 28 2004 11:39 AM
. * * Cape Verde Season rmbjoe1954   Wed Jul 28 2004 11:44 AM
. * * NHC not into playing Fantasy Hurricane bobbi   Wed Jul 28 2004 12:10 PM
. * * Is the SAL fading a bit in Atlantic? Cycloneye   Wed Jul 28 2004 09:04 AM

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