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Newly tagged Invest 91L in the Central American Gyre heading towards MX/TX, a slow and sprawling flood threat. Bahamas hybrid well E of FL 10%/30% odd and expected to track back to the W across FL or SE US this week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 292 (Idalia) , Major: 292 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 292 (Idalia) Major: 292 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

teal61
Weather Hobbyist


Reged:
Posts: 61
Loc: Spring, TX (30.1N 95.5W)
Is There Something Brewing in the Gulf ?
      Thu Jul 29 2004 02:45 PM

From some of the AFD's in Florida.....

FLORIDA KEYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
950 AM EDT THU JUL 29 2004

.DISCUSSION...
.OBSERVATIONS/TRENDS...
MORNING SOUNDINGS AT KEY WEST AND MIAMI VERIFIED A VERY WET TROPICAL
AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
QUITE HIGH AT 2.4 TO 2.5 INCHES. K-INDEX VALUE WAS HIGH AT 39.
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS ARE INTERESTING WITH REGARD TO CELL MOVEMENT...
SUGGESTING A CYCLONIC CENTER NOW NEAR BIG PINE KEY. NEWLY DEVELOPING
SHOWERS/TSTMS EAST OF THERE ARE NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NW...WHILE
WEST OF THERE MOTION REMAINS GENERALLY TOWARD THE S OR SW. THIS
CYCLONIC SPIN...HOWEVER...IS ALOFT AND APPEARS TO BE TRANSLATING
WESTWARD. MEANWHILE...SURFACE PRESSURE AND WIND PATTERN AT THIS TIME
INDICATES A BROAD ILL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA WEST OF THE KEYS.
KEYS SURFACE WINDS HAVE TURNED TO SE NEAR 10 KT OVER UPPER KEYS
AREAS...ARE LIGHT S TO SW OVER LOWER KEYS...BUT AGAIN REMAIN
AFFECTED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.FORECASTS...
INTERMEDIATE ETA RUN (06Z) HAS DISPLACED ITS FORECASTED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN BEFORE...SHOWING A
WEAK LOW SOUTH OF DRY TORTUGAS BY 8 PM THIS EVENING...WHILE GFS IN
CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER RUNS SHOWING A WEAK LOW CENTER WEST OF DRY
TORTUGAS IN THE GULF. CURRENT WIND TRENDS WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR THE
GFS SOLUTION...BUT THE OVERALL SCENE STILL IS ONE OF A SLOWLY
DEVELOPING LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE SE GULF...AND A WET PATTERN OVER
THE KEYS. NO UPDATE TO PUBLIC ZONES IS ANTICIPATED...WITH HIGH
CHANCE OF RAIN TODAY. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST SMALL CLUSTERS
AND LINES ARE FORMING IN THE DEEPER SE TO S FLOW...WHICH COULD BRING
THE ANTICIPATED HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE STRAITS INTO THE
KEYS.





SOUTH FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1000 AM EDT THU JUL 29 2004

.UPDATE...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS EASTERN GULF WITH WEAK LOW BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS SE
SECTIONS OF THE GULF AND A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE SW FL
COAST. AT LOW LVLS...850 AND 700 MB...12Z ANALYSIS SHOW TROPICAL
WAVE/TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE SW GULF COAST...NAPLES...STRETCHING SE
INTO THE FL STRAITS.

A look at the visuals this morning seems to show some broad rotation in the vicinity of the Florida keys, and now with the new invest 90L up thing are getting a little more interesting.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Is There Something Brewing East of Bahamas? MikeCAdministrator Thu Jul 29 2004 02:45 PM
. * * Re: Is There Something Brewing East of Bahamas? Anonymous   Thu Jul 29 2004 01:20 PM
. * * Re: Is There Something Brewing East of Bahamas? James88   Thu Jul 29 2004 02:15 PM
. * * Re: Is There Something Brewing East of Bahamas? LI Phil   Thu Jul 29 2004 02:25 PM
. * * Re: Is There Something Brewing East of Bahamas? caneman   Thu Jul 29 2004 02:39 PM
. * * Re: Is There Something Brewing East of Bahamas? joepub1   Thu Jul 29 2004 03:10 PM
. * * There is something BIg east of the Bahamas! rmbjoe1954   Thu Jul 29 2004 03:20 PM
. * * Re: There is something BIg east of the Bahamas! Steve hirsch.   Thu Jul 29 2004 03:28 PM
. * * Re: There is something BIg east of the Bahamas! doug   Thu Jul 29 2004 03:36 PM
. * * Re: There is something BIg east of the Bahamas! LI Phil   Thu Jul 29 2004 03:50 PM
. * * Re: There is something BIg east of the Bahamas! James88   Thu Jul 29 2004 04:13 PM
. * * Pretty impressive Kevin   Thu Jul 29 2004 04:23 PM
. * * Re: There is something BIg east of the Bahamas! Tropics Guy   Thu Jul 29 2004 04:18 PM
. * * Models LI Phil   Thu Jul 29 2004 04:24 PM
. * * Re: Models Kevin   Thu Jul 29 2004 04:36 PM
. * * Re: There is something BIG east of the Bahamas! rmbjoe1954   Thu Jul 29 2004 04:22 PM
. * * 99L rmbjoe1954   Thu Jul 29 2004 04:16 PM
. * * Re: There is something BIg east of the Bahamas! Cycloneye   Thu Jul 29 2004 04:10 PM
. * * real quietly watching both systems... bobbi   Thu Jul 29 2004 03:49 PM
. * * Re: There is something BIg east of the Bahamas! James88   Thu Jul 29 2004 03:25 PM
. * * Re: There is something BIg east of the Bahamas! James88   Thu Jul 29 2004 03:26 PM
. * * Re: There is something BIg east of the Bahamas! joepub1   Thu Jul 29 2004 03:31 PM
. * * Re: There is something BIg east of the Bahamas! James88   Thu Jul 29 2004 03:33 PM
. * * Re: There is something BIg east of the Bahamas! joepub1   Thu Jul 29 2004 03:23 PM
. * * Is There Something Brewing in the Gulf ? teal61   Thu Jul 29 2004 02:45 PM
. * * Re: Is There Something Brewing East of Bahamas? Cycloneye   Thu Jul 29 2004 02:45 PM
. * * Re: Is There Something Brewing East of Bahamas? Old Sailor   Wed Jul 28 2004 02:33 AM
. * * Re: Is There Something Brewing East of Bahamas? Steve   Wed Jul 28 2004 02:50 AM
. * * Re: Is There Something Brewing East of Bahamas? James88   Wed Jul 28 2004 10:56 AM
. * * Re: Is There Something Brewing East of Bahamas? LoisCane   Wed Jul 28 2004 11:37 AM
. * * Re: Is There Something Brewing East of Bahamas? James88   Wed Jul 28 2004 12:46 PM
. * * Re: Is There Something Brewing East of Bahamas? doug   Wed Jul 28 2004 01:35 PM
. * * Re: Is There Something Brewing East of Bahamas? Steve   Wed Jul 28 2004 01:52 PM
. * * Re: Is There Something Brewing East of Bahamas? Old Sailor   Wed Jul 28 2004 04:49 PM
. * * Re: Is There Something Brewing East of Bahamas? Anonymous   Wed Jul 28 2004 05:12 PM
. * * Discussion Rob_M   Wed Jul 28 2004 06:42 PM
. * * beautiful analysis Mr. Mann bobbi   Wed Jul 28 2004 07:47 PM
. * * Re: Discussion Cycloneye   Wed Jul 28 2004 07:11 PM
. * * Re: Discussion Rob_M   Wed Jul 28 2004 11:19 PM
. * * Re: Florida weather doug   Wed Jul 28 2004 07:26 PM
. * * face to face observation bobbi   Wed Jul 28 2004 08:00 PM
. * * my analysis Rabbit   Wed Jul 28 2004 08:41 PM
. * * Re: my analysis Steve   Wed Jul 28 2004 09:15 PM
. * * Re: my analysis Anonymous   Wed Jul 28 2004 09:31 PM
. * * Re: my analysis Steve   Wed Jul 28 2004 09:41 PM
. * * TWO DroopGB31   Wed Jul 28 2004 09:46 PM
. * * Re: TWO Rich B   Wed Jul 28 2004 09:51 PM
. * * suspicion HanKFranK   Wed Jul 28 2004 10:05 PM
. * * Re: TWO DroopGB31   Wed Jul 28 2004 10:01 PM
. * * do not try this while alone bobbi   Wed Jul 28 2004 10:05 PM
. * * Illin' all day LI Phil   Wed Jul 28 2004 11:12 PM
. * * Re: Illin' all day Old Sailor   Thu Jul 29 2004 12:31 AM
. * * umbrellas in florida bobbi   Thu Jul 29 2004 12:02 AM
. * * Re: umbrellas in florida DustDuchess   Thu Jul 29 2004 12:45 AM
. * * Alligators on a leash... LI Phil   Thu Jul 29 2004 12:15 AM
. * * Re: Alligators on a leash... Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu Jul 29 2004 02:55 AM
. * * Recovery of an Earlier Post Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu Jul 29 2004 03:02 AM
. * * Potential? James88   Thu Jul 29 2004 10:05 AM
. * * Re: Potential? Rich B   Thu Jul 29 2004 10:33 AM
. * * Re: Potential? LoisCane   Thu Jul 29 2004 11:09 AM
. * * Re: Potential? James88   Thu Jul 29 2004 11:23 AM
. * * question... LoisCane   Thu Jul 29 2004 11:40 AM
. * * Re: question... James88   Thu Jul 29 2004 11:51 AM
. * * Bahamian System rmbjoe1954   Thu Jul 29 2004 12:46 PM
. * * Re: Bahamian System doug   Thu Jul 29 2004 01:02 PM
. * * Re: Bahamian System James88   Thu Jul 29 2004 01:08 PM
. * * Re: Bahamian System Steve hirsch.   Thu Jul 29 2004 01:00 PM
. * * 99L invest for east of Bahamas Cycloneye   Thu Jul 29 2004 12:52 PM
. * * Re: 99L invest for east of Bahamas Alex K   Thu Jul 29 2004 04:24 PM
. * * Re: 99L invest for east of Bahamas rmbjoe1954   Thu Jul 29 2004 04:34 PM
. * * Re: 99L invest for east of Bahamas Steve hirsch.   Thu Jul 29 2004 04:37 PM
. * * what happens if it doesnt move in the near term? bobbi   Thu Jul 29 2004 05:10 PM
. * * Keys comment bobbi   Thu Jul 29 2004 06:56 PM
. * * Re: 99L invest for east of Bahamas Anonymous   Thu Jul 29 2004 05:05 PM
. * * Re: 99L invest for east of Bahamas Kevin   Thu Jul 29 2004 05:06 PM
. * * Re: 99L invest for east of Bahamas rmbjoe1954   Thu Jul 29 2004 05:10 PM
. * * Re: TWO DroopGB31   Wed Jul 28 2004 09:50 PM
. * * Re: my analysis DroopGB31   Wed Jul 28 2004 09:38 PM
. * * Re: my analysis Steve   Wed Jul 28 2004 09:45 PM
. * * Re: my analysis Steve hirsch.   Wed Jul 28 2004 09:30 PM
. * * IF bobbi   Wed Jul 28 2004 01:57 PM
. * * Re: IF James88   Wed Jul 28 2004 02:11 PM
. * * Re: IF Steve   Wed Jul 28 2004 02:45 PM
. * * Re: IF James88   Wed Jul 28 2004 03:39 PM
. * * Cape Verde Season rmbjoe1954   Wed Jul 28 2004 03:44 PM
. * * NHC not into playing Fantasy Hurricane bobbi   Wed Jul 28 2004 04:10 PM
. * * Is the SAL fading a bit in Atlantic? Cycloneye   Wed Jul 28 2004 01:04 PM

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