FLORIDA KEYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 950 AM EDT THU JUL 29 2004
.DISCUSSION... .OBSERVATIONS/TRENDS... MORNING SOUNDINGS AT KEY WEST AND MIAMI VERIFIED A VERY WET TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES QUITE HIGH AT 2.4 TO 2.5 INCHES. K-INDEX VALUE WAS HIGH AT 39. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS ARE INTERESTING WITH REGARD TO CELL MOVEMENT... SUGGESTING A CYCLONIC CENTER NOW NEAR BIG PINE KEY. NEWLY DEVELOPING SHOWERS/TSTMS EAST OF THERE ARE NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NW...WHILE WEST OF THERE MOTION REMAINS GENERALLY TOWARD THE S OR SW. THIS CYCLONIC SPIN...HOWEVER...IS ALOFT AND APPEARS TO BE TRANSLATING WESTWARD. MEANWHILE...SURFACE PRESSURE AND WIND PATTERN AT THIS TIME INDICATES A BROAD ILL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA WEST OF THE KEYS. KEYS SURFACE WINDS HAVE TURNED TO SE NEAR 10 KT OVER UPPER KEYS AREAS...ARE LIGHT S TO SW OVER LOWER KEYS...BUT AGAIN REMAIN AFFECTED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
.FORECASTS... INTERMEDIATE ETA RUN (06Z) HAS DISPLACED ITS FORECASTED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN BEFORE...SHOWING A WEAK LOW SOUTH OF DRY TORTUGAS BY 8 PM THIS EVENING...WHILE GFS IN CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER RUNS SHOWING A WEAK LOW CENTER WEST OF DRY TORTUGAS IN THE GULF. CURRENT WIND TRENDS WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR THE GFS SOLUTION...BUT THE OVERALL SCENE STILL IS ONE OF A SLOWLY DEVELOPING LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE SE GULF...AND A WET PATTERN OVER THE KEYS. NO UPDATE TO PUBLIC ZONES IS ANTICIPATED...WITH HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN TODAY. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST SMALL CLUSTERS AND LINES ARE FORMING IN THE DEEPER SE TO S FLOW...WHICH COULD BRING THE ANTICIPATED HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE STRAITS INTO THE KEYS.
SOUTH FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 1000 AM EDT THU JUL 29 2004
.UPDATE...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN GULF WITH WEAK LOW BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS SE SECTIONS OF THE GULF AND A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE SW FL COAST. AT LOW LVLS...850 AND 700 MB...12Z ANALYSIS SHOW TROPICAL WAVE/TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE SW GULF COAST...NAPLES...STRETCHING SE INTO THE FL STRAITS.
A look at the visuals this morning seems to show some broad rotation in the vicinity of the Florida keys, and now with the new invest 90L up thing are getting a little more interesting.
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