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Tropical Storm Watch issued for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to W of Channel 5 Bridge, and for the Dry Tortugas #RAFAEL #FLWX
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 26 (Milton) , Major: 26 (Milton) Florida - Any: 26 (Milton) Major: 26 (Milton)
Rem Patty
ADV#10 11:00 am EDT
38.5N 16.2W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 999mb
Moving:
Ene at 17 mph
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TS Rafael
ADV#5A 6:00 pm EDT
15.8N 76.9W
Wind: 45MPH
Pres: 1000mb
Moving:
Nnw at 9 mph
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HanKFranK
User


Reged:
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
later obs
      Thu Jul 29 2004 06:39 PM

99L's surface trough is east of the main convective blow up. the vortmax in the northern part is moving away west.. with some convection. i don't think it's the primary. a weaker one to the south is drifting almost underneath the upper trough , with the trades barely pushing it (as the main convective blow up is immediately ese of it). as the convective max propagates westward, i'm expecting a closed center to form early tomorrow in the vicinity of 24/72.
away west 90L is being driven slowly southwestward by the upper level winds ahead of the slowly retrograding upper trough. i'm thinking now that the weak surface low will begin deepening closer to cozumel than key west, and stay further to the south. it should also pump the mid level ridge to the north and keep the first shortwave for this weekend out of the picture.. though later one may be in place to get it in the western gulf. earlier i was thinking the shortwave would wind up getting both systems, but this one seems more affected by weather to its east than weather to its northwest.
so yeah, first impulse with 90L probably wrong. but i'm sticking with the thoughts on 99L.
HF 2239z29july

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Two Areas Both Near the US that May Need Watching MikeCAdministrator Thu Jul 29 2004 06:39 PM
. * * Answering My Own Question..:) LadyStorm   Sat Jul 31 2004 07:25 AM
. * * Re: Answering My Own Question..:) javlin   Sat Jul 31 2004 07:49 AM
. * * Re: Answering My Own Question..:) caneman   Sat Jul 31 2004 08:00 AM
. * * Re: Answering My Own Question..:) LadyStorm   Sat Jul 31 2004 08:24 AM
. * * Re: Answering My Own Question..:) Hurric   Sat Jul 31 2004 08:56 AM
. * * Re: Answering My Own Question..:) caneman   Sat Jul 31 2004 08:32 AM
. * * Re: east atlantic wave Tropics Guy   Sat Jul 31 2004 08:59 AM
. * * Re: east atlantic wave Rabbit   Sat Jul 31 2004 09:32 AM
. * * Re: east atlantic wave Anonymous   Sat Jul 31 2004 11:39 AM
. * * I just don't see 99L moving NW.... Anonymous   Sat Jul 31 2004 08:31 AM
. * * Flight Schedule??? LadyStorm   Sat Jul 31 2004 06:55 AM
. * * Re: Two Areas Both Near the US that May Need Watching Anonymous   Fri Jul 30 2004 11:36 AM
. * * Re: Two Areas Both Near the US that May Need Watching Anonymous   Fri Jul 30 2004 11:25 AM
. * * Re: Two Areas Both Near the US that May Need Watching LI Phil   Fri Jul 30 2004 11:36 AM
. * * the answer and two questions Rabbit   Fri Jul 30 2004 11:45 AM
. * * Re: the answer and two questions LI Phil   Fri Jul 30 2004 11:51 AM
. * * LLC? rmbjoe1954   Fri Jul 30 2004 12:10 PM
. * * Re: LLC? doug   Fri Jul 30 2004 12:16 PM
. * * Re: LLC? Anonymous   Fri Jul 30 2004 12:32 PM
. * * Re: LLC? Rabbit   Fri Jul 30 2004 12:54 PM
. * * Recon observations Cycloneye   Fri Jul 30 2004 01:00 PM
. * * Re: Recon observations Anonymous   Fri Jul 30 2004 03:03 PM
. * * Re: Recon observations joepub1   Fri Jul 30 2004 01:17 PM
. * * Re: Recon observations Rabbit   Fri Jul 30 2004 01:24 PM
. * * Re: Recon observations James88   Fri Jul 30 2004 01:29 PM
. * * Re: Recon observations joepub1   Fri Jul 30 2004 01:34 PM
. * * twins.. tell me more bobbi   Fri Jul 30 2004 02:03 PM
. * * Re: twins.. tell me more James88   Fri Jul 30 2004 02:14 PM
. * * come on... show me which is the center bobbi   Fri Jul 30 2004 02:19 PM
. * * Re: come on... show me which is the center Anonymous   Fri Jul 30 2004 02:22 PM
. * * Re: come on... show me which is the center rmbjoe1954   Fri Jul 30 2004 03:04 PM
. * * I see one of the centers (76w/28n) pulling 99L to the West; bobbi   Fri Jul 30 2004 03:10 PM
. * * Re: I see one of the centers (76w/28n) pulling 99L to the West; rmbjoe1954   Fri Jul 30 2004 03:30 PM
. * * ok..loop lookers.. is there a twist south of cuba? bobbi   Fri Jul 30 2004 03:34 PM
. * * not best radar but get an idea bobbi   Fri Jul 30 2004 03:40 PM
. * * Re: not best radar but get an idea James88   Fri Jul 30 2004 03:59 PM
. * * Re: not best radar but get an idea rmbjoe1954   Fri Jul 30 2004 04:01 PM
. * * Re: not best radar but get an idea James88   Fri Jul 30 2004 04:03 PM
. * * Re: not best radar but get an idea rmbjoe1954   Fri Jul 30 2004 04:07 PM
. * * Re: not best radar but get an idea Rob_M   Fri Jul 30 2004 04:21 PM
. * * Couple of Bouy Links Cocoa Beach   Fri Jul 30 2004 05:00 PM
. * * 5:30 TWO LI Phil   Fri Jul 30 2004 05:16 PM
. * * Re: 5:30 TWO Old Sailor   Fri Jul 30 2004 07:51 PM
. * * Re: 5:30 TWO James88   Fri Jul 30 2004 05:22 PM
. * * Re: 5:30 TWO LoisCane   Fri Jul 30 2004 05:38 PM
. * * Re: 5:30 TWO Rich B   Fri Jul 30 2004 05:48 PM
. * * Re: 5:30 TWO h2ocean   Fri Jul 30 2004 07:25 PM
. * * 50 Online LI Phil   Fri Jul 30 2004 05:56 PM
. * * Looks like 90L might have the top of the hill in sight... teal61   Fri Jul 30 2004 07:15 PM
. * * Re: Looks like 90L might have the top of the hill in sight... FLPanhandle   Fri Jul 30 2004 07:22 PM
. * * slip sliding west LoisCane   Fri Jul 30 2004 07:26 PM
. * * Re: slip sliding west Cycloneye   Fri Jul 30 2004 07:42 PM
. * * Re: slip sliding west Tropics Guy   Fri Jul 30 2004 08:54 PM
. * * Re: slip sliding west h2ocean   Fri Jul 30 2004 10:06 PM
. * * From Cancun Anonymous   Fri Jul 30 2004 11:38 PM
. * * Re:Thanks for the radar site Tropics Guy   Sat Jul 31 2004 12:00 AM
. * * 24 hours of limbo HanKFranK   Sat Jul 31 2004 12:55 AM
. * * Re: 24 hours of limbo Steve   Sat Jul 31 2004 01:11 AM
. * * Re: 24 hours of limbo Hurric   Sat Jul 31 2004 07:46 AM
. * * Re: 24 hours of limbo James88   Sat Jul 31 2004 05:39 AM
. * * Re: 24 hours of limbo Anonymous   Sat Jul 31 2004 05:55 AM
. * * Re: 24 hours of limbo Hurricane   Sat Jul 31 2004 06:18 AM
. * * Re: slip sliding west Old Sailor   Fri Jul 30 2004 09:59 PM
. * * Re: slip sliding west Rabbit   Fri Jul 30 2004 07:50 PM
. * * You're welcome... LI Phil   Fri Jul 30 2004 08:05 PM
. * * Dvorak T numbers Cycloneye   Fri Jul 30 2004 08:31 PM
. * * conflicting satellite appearances? Rabbit   Fri Jul 30 2004 08:45 PM
. * * Re: You're welcome... Rabbit   Fri Jul 30 2004 08:13 PM
. * * tropical discussion Rabbit   Fri Jul 30 2004 08:29 PM
. * * Re: 5:30 TWO Steve   Fri Jul 30 2004 05:47 PM
. * * Re: not best radar but get an idea h2ocean   Fri Jul 30 2004 04:20 PM
. * * Re: not best radar but get an idea h2ocean   Fri Jul 30 2004 04:53 PM
. * * Re: not best radar but get an idea GaryC   Fri Jul 30 2004 04:59 PM
. * * Re: I see one of the centers (76w/28n) pulling 99L to the West; James88   Fri Jul 30 2004 03:34 PM
. * * seriously...short post bobbi   Fri Jul 30 2004 02:44 PM
. * * Re: seriously...short post Rabbit   Fri Jul 30 2004 02:54 PM
. * * Re: seriously...short post James88   Fri Jul 30 2004 02:59 PM
. * * Re: seriously...short post Rabbit   Fri Jul 30 2004 03:05 PM
. * * Re: come on... anon.. bobbi   Fri Jul 30 2004 02:41 PM
. * * Re: twins.. tell me more Anonymous   Fri Jul 30 2004 02:17 PM
. * * Re: LLC? doug   Fri Jul 30 2004 12:50 PM
. * * Re: LLC? joepub1   Fri Jul 30 2004 12:26 PM
. * * Re: the answer and two questions joepub1   Fri Jul 30 2004 12:02 PM
. * * Re: the answer and two questions Anonymous   Fri Jul 30 2004 11:53 AM
. * * Re: the answer and two questions James88   Fri Jul 30 2004 11:48 AM
. * * Re: the answer and two questions Anonymous   Fri Jul 30 2004 12:00 PM
. * * Re: the answer and two questions rmbjoe1954   Fri Jul 30 2004 12:02 PM
. * * just a quick note... Rabbit   Fri Jul 30 2004 12:08 PM
. * * Re: just a quick note... stop staring bobbi   Fri Jul 30 2004 12:30 PM
. * * Re: the answer and two questions Rabbit   Fri Jul 30 2004 12:01 PM
. * * Can I ... Cocoa Beach   Fri Jul 30 2004 09:38 AM
. * * Re: Can I ... MikeCAdministrator   Fri Jul 30 2004 09:43 AM
. * * Re: Can I ... Anonymous   Fri Jul 30 2004 11:32 AM
. * * it means........ bobbi   Fri Jul 30 2004 11:51 AM
. * * Re: it means........ GaryC   Fri Jul 30 2004 12:49 PM
. * * Dvorak Chart LI Phil   Fri Jul 30 2004 12:53 PM
. * * A Cool Picture... Beach   Fri Jul 30 2004 10:29 AM
. * * Re: A Cool Picture... James88   Fri Jul 30 2004 10:43 AM
. * * Re: A Cool Picture... Beach   Fri Jul 30 2004 10:58 AM
. * * Re: A Cool Picture... LI Phil   Fri Jul 30 2004 11:12 AM
. * * LLC is there on 99L joepub1   Fri Jul 30 2004 11:34 AM
. * * Re: LLC is there on 99L doug   Fri Jul 30 2004 12:28 PM
. * * 11:30 TWO - Interesting... James88   Fri Jul 30 2004 11:20 AM
. * * Re: 11:30 TWO - Interesting... Anonymous   Fri Jul 30 2004 11:35 AM
. * * 68/24 bobbi   Fri Jul 30 2004 11:09 AM
. * * Re: Two Areas Both Near the US that May Need Watching Anonymous   Thu Jul 29 2004 07:17 PM
. * * Re: Two Areas Both Near the US that May Need Watching rmbjoe1954   Thu Jul 29 2004 07:24 PM
. * * good posts.. LoisCane   Thu Jul 29 2004 07:36 PM
. * * Re: Two Areas Both Near the US that May Need Watching Kevin   Thu Jul 29 2004 07:01 PM
. * * Re: Two Areas Both Near the US that May Need Watching Rich B   Thu Jul 29 2004 07:21 PM
. * * 99L's future... LI Phil   Thu Jul 29 2004 07:18 PM
. * * Re: Two Areas Both Near the US that May Need Watching Allison   Thu Jul 29 2004 01:18 PM
. * * Re: Two Areas Both Near the US that May Need Watching javlin   Thu Jul 29 2004 01:42 PM
. * * Re: Two Areas Both Near the US that May Need Watching Old Sailor   Thu Jul 29 2004 02:25 PM
. * * Re: Two Areas Both Near the US that May Need Watching Old Sailor   Thu Jul 29 2004 11:41 PM
. * * midnight take HanKFranK   Fri Jul 30 2004 12:03 AM
. * * Re: midnight take DroopGB31   Fri Jul 30 2004 01:39 AM
. * * Re: midnight take James88   Fri Jul 30 2004 02:48 AM
. * * Re: midnight take Steve Hirschb.   Fri Jul 30 2004 07:35 AM
. * * Re: midnight take h2ocean   Fri Jul 30 2004 08:12 AM
. * * Steering Winds -99L rmbjoe1954   Fri Jul 30 2004 08:33 AM
. * * Re: Steering Winds -99L LI Phil   Fri Jul 30 2004 08:39 AM
. * * friday thoughts.. LoisCane   Fri Jul 30 2004 08:54 AM
. * * Re: friday thoughts.. rmbjoe1954   Fri Jul 30 2004 09:19 AM
. * * agree with joe.. can't find one .. bobbi   Fri Jul 30 2004 09:47 AM
. * * Re: agree with joe.. can't find one .. Steve   Fri Jul 30 2004 10:12 AM
. * * Re: Steering Winds -99L James88   Fri Jul 30 2004 08:48 AM
. * * Quick early morning JB thoughts LI Phil   Fri Jul 30 2004 08:24 AM
. * * Re: Two Areas Both Near the US that May Need Watching LI Phil   Thu Jul 29 2004 02:32 PM
. * * Re: Two Areas Both Near the US that May Need Watching Old Sailor   Thu Jul 29 2004 03:24 PM
. * * Re: Two Areas Both Near the US that May Need Watching bobbi   Thu Jul 29 2004 02:48 PM
. * * Re: Two Areas Both Near the US that May Need Watching James88   Thu Jul 29 2004 04:00 PM
. * * Re: Two Areas Both Near the US that May Need Watching James88   Thu Jul 29 2004 04:12 PM
. * * Re: Two Areas Both Near the US that May Need Watching Old Sailor   Thu Jul 29 2004 04:23 PM
. * * Re: Two Areas Both Near the US that May Need Watching caneman   Thu Jul 29 2004 04:18 PM
. * * Re: Two Areas Both Near the US that May Need Watching alan`   Thu Jul 29 2004 04:58 PM
. * * bouy drops bobbi   Thu Jul 29 2004 04:26 PM
. * * Atlantic system does have a red dot red dots   Thu Jul 29 2004 04:29 PM
. * * Future Movement??? GR FLA   Thu Jul 29 2004 04:47 PM
. * * JB Afternoon Update LI Phil   Thu Jul 29 2004 04:55 PM
. * * what if.. just a what if Fantasy Tracking here.. bobbi   Thu Jul 29 2004 05:50 PM
. * * Re: what if.. just a what if Fantasy Tracking here.. Anonymous   Thu Jul 29 2004 06:01 PM
. * * Re: what if.. just a what if Fantasy Tracking here.. Old Sailor   Thu Jul 29 2004 07:40 PM
. * * Re: what if.. just a what if Fantasy Tracking here.. Anonymous   Thu Jul 29 2004 07:54 PM
. * * Interesting Link teal61   Thu Jul 29 2004 07:58 PM
. * * Awfully quiet this e'en... LI Phil   Thu Jul 29 2004 08:27 PM
. * * SSD dvorak Cycloneye   Thu Jul 29 2004 09:01 PM
. * * Re: SSD dvorak Anonymous   Thu Jul 29 2004 09:20 PM
. * * two SyS Anonymous   Thu Jul 29 2004 09:28 PM
. * * Atlantic Discussion Rob_M   Thu Jul 29 2004 09:39 PM
. * * N.C. Discussion WXMAN RICHIE   Thu Jul 29 2004 09:53 PM
. * * wave off Africa LoisCane   Thu Jul 29 2004 10:17 PM
. * * What the... Kevin   Thu Jul 29 2004 11:44 PM
. * * Steve, please explain... Anonymous   Thu Jul 29 2004 06:37 PM
. * * Re: Steve, please explain... LI Phil   Thu Jul 29 2004 06:39 PM
. * * Re: what if.. just a what if Fantasy Tracking here.. DroopGB31   Thu Jul 29 2004 05:58 PM
. * * Re: what if.. just a what if Fantasy Tracking here.. DroopGB31   Thu Jul 29 2004 06:08 PM
. * * Re: what if.. just a what if Fantasy Tracking here.. ErinAndOpal95   Thu Jul 29 2004 06:15 PM
. * * later obs HanKFranK   Thu Jul 29 2004 06:39 PM
. * * later obs Anonymous   Thu Jul 29 2004 06:58 PM
. * * Re: what if.. just a what if Fantasy Tracking here.. h2ocean   Thu Jul 29 2004 06:33 PM
. * * Re: what if.. just a what if Fantasy Tracking here.. javlin   Thu Jul 29 2004 06:14 PM
. * * Re: what if.. just a what if Fantasy Tracking here.. javlin   Thu Jul 29 2004 05:57 PM
. * * Re: JB Afternoon Update teal61   Thu Jul 29 2004 05:36 PM
. * * Re: JB Afternoon Update ticka1   Thu Jul 29 2004 07:32 PM
. * * Re: JB Afternoon Update LI Phil   Thu Jul 29 2004 07:36 PM
. * * 99L James88   Thu Jul 29 2004 05:49 PM
. * * Re: JB Afternoon Update LI Phil   Thu Jul 29 2004 05:46 PM
. * * Re: JB Afternoon Update DroopGB31   Thu Jul 29 2004 05:03 PM
. * * 5:30pm TWO Jamiewx   Thu Jul 29 2004 05:14 PM
. * * Re: 5:30pm TWO James88   Thu Jul 29 2004 05:21 PM
. * * Re: 5:30pm TWO ErinAndOpal95   Thu Jul 29 2004 05:35 PM
. * * Sounds like we've finally got something(s) Alex K   Thu Jul 29 2004 05:18 PM
. * * Re: Two Areas Both Near the US that May Need Watching James88   Thu Jul 29 2004 04:23 PM
. * * preempt HanKFranK   Thu Jul 29 2004 03:12 PM
. * * 99L rmbjoe1954   Thu Jul 29 2004 01:57 PM
. * * Re: Two Areas Both Near the US that May Need Watching James88   Thu Jul 29 2004 01:07 PM
. * * Re: Two Areas Both Near the US that May Need Watching SirCane   Thu Jul 29 2004 03:35 PM
. * * Re: Two Areas Both Near the US that May Need Watching LI Phil   Thu Jul 29 2004 03:44 PM
. * * Re: Two Areas Both Near the US that May Need Watching Cycloneye   Thu Jul 29 2004 03:48 PM

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