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Invest 94L just northeast of the ABC islands in the Caribbean moving west, 20% development chance. Another area near the Cabo Verde islands has a 20% chance to develop over the next 7 days.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 300 (Idalia) , Major: 300 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 300 (Idalia) Major: 300 (Idalia)
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HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
7/31, ed's called shot
      Sat Jul 31 2004 01:44 PM

quick shot of obs.
99L is a tropical depression. the nhc may be aware of this and should make this same observation shortly. i'm still not on the nc bandwagon, though history has taught me this is usually the safest course, i'm sticking with it running the georgia coast if not landfalling there. the current steering mechanism is breaking down, and it will be changing course near 80w.. and slowing down. it may be intensifying right along the coast tomorrow and monday.
ed pointed to a convective blow up out near bermuda. i'm slightly more impressed by the one near 30/70. i had pretty much overlooked it. that upper energy descent sw-ward east of bermuda i hadn't overlooked.. noticed models calling for it a few days back. it will in the end be of the same ilk as 99L and the system between it and 99L (partially induced by energy backing southwest around the bermuda high). erika last summer originated in this way. no cause for alarm and it will ultimately turn into the north atlantic even if it can muster a surface system.
90L continues to meander and not develop. this one has time on its side. dealing with 'robber convection' that has been persisting around cuba and around 99L. it may continue to wander, but really all it needs is one good burst..
its future is probably to the west around texas, i'll concede. with it taking forever to develop, predicting its movement thus far has been 'drifting west'. dependent on when/if it starts a whole realm of possible tracks have and will exist.
east atlanitc:
probably will be an invest, as noted earlier by others, on the system near 10/30. most of it's torque is mid level.. sloppy e-w oblong trough at the surface. racing in the deep easterlies.. not going to do much until it drops a gear or two. a good shot of subsidence would probably be lethal now.. with the SAL hanging out there that is always likely.
more waves behind it. gfs has been triggerhappy with the lot of them, so they're always worth checking up on. we've reached the threshold for the east atlantic.. the sweet spot is still three-five weeks in the future.
HF 1744z31july

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropical Tremors Ed DunhamAdministrator Sat Jul 31 2004 01:44 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Tremors javlin   Sat Jul 31 2004 05:19 PM
. * * 7/31 LI Phil   Sat Jul 31 2004 01:05 PM
. * * Re: 7/31 Mike   Sat Jul 31 2004 06:19 PM
. * * Re: 7/31 LI Phil   Sat Jul 31 2004 06:20 PM
. * * Re: 7/31 James88   Sat Jul 31 2004 06:27 PM
. * * Re: 7/31 Steve Hirschb.   Sat Jul 31 2004 01:23 PM
. * * 7/31, ed's called shot HanKFranK   Sat Jul 31 2004 01:44 PM
. * * Re: 7/31, ed's called shot James88   Sat Jul 31 2004 02:22 PM
. * * Re: 7/31, ed's called shot GaryC   Sat Jul 31 2004 02:50 PM
. * * RRecon Anonymous   Sat Jul 31 2004 03:04 PM
. * * Re: RRecon Old Sailor   Sat Jul 31 2004 03:29 PM
. * * Re: 7/31, ed's called shot GaryC   Sat Jul 31 2004 02:57 PM
. * * Re: 7/31, ed's called shot DustDuchess   Sat Jul 31 2004 03:05 PM
. * * 17:45 Dvorak #s LI Phil   Sat Jul 31 2004 03:29 PM
. * * Melbourne Radar LI Phil   Sat Jul 31 2004 03:35 PM
. * * TD1 OFFICIAL Rob_M   Sat Jul 31 2004 03:46 PM
. * * Re: TD1 OFFICIAL LI Phil   Sat Jul 31 2004 03:48 PM
. * * Re: TD1 OFFICIAL Rob_M   Sat Jul 31 2004 03:51 PM
. * * Champagne TOAST! LI Phil   Sat Jul 31 2004 03:55 PM
. * * Just 7 hours away... Cocoa Beach   Sat Jul 31 2004 06:44 PM
. * * Re: Champagne TOAST! James88   Sat Jul 31 2004 03:57 PM
. * * Re: Champagne TOAST! GaryC   Sat Jul 31 2004 04:01 PM
. * * Re: Champagne TOAST! Rabbit   Sat Jul 31 2004 04:21 PM
. * * Re: Champagne TOAST! Anonymous   Sat Jul 31 2004 04:35 PM
. * * Tropical Depression One James88   Sat Jul 31 2004 04:38 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression One Anonymous   Sat Jul 31 2004 04:40 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression One Anonymous   Sat Jul 31 2004 04:41 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression One GaryC   Sat Jul 31 2004 04:46 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression One GaryC   Sat Jul 31 2004 04:49 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression One hurricane_run   Sat Jul 31 2004 04:54 PM
. * * Alex LI Phil   Sat Jul 31 2004 04:56 PM
. * * Re: Alex Cycloneye   Sat Jul 31 2004 05:14 PM
. * * Re: Alex James88   Sat Jul 31 2004 05:16 PM
. * * Champagne LI Phil   Sat Jul 31 2004 05:21 PM
. * * Re: Champagne Rainband   Sat Jul 31 2004 05:34 PM
. * * Re: Champagne James88   Sat Jul 31 2004 05:32 PM
. * * Re: Champagne SirCane   Sat Jul 31 2004 06:26 PM
. * * Re: Champagne LI Phil   Sat Jul 31 2004 06:35 PM
. * * Re: Alex James88   Sat Jul 31 2004 05:00 PM
. * * Re: Alex Anonymous   Sat Jul 31 2004 05:34 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression One ticka1   Sat Jul 31 2004 04:56 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression One Anonymous   Sat Jul 31 2004 04:46 PM
. * * Zulu Time LI Phil   Sat Jul 31 2004 03:02 PM
. * * Re: Zulu Time WXMAN RICHIE   Sat Jul 31 2004 07:00 PM
. * * Re: Zulu Time hurricane_run   Sat Jul 31 2004 07:18 PM
. * * Re: Zulu Time-MY TOTALLY BAD LI Phil   Sat Jul 31 2004 07:22 PM
. * * Re: Zulu Time-MY TOTALLY BAD DustDuchess   Sat Jul 31 2004 07:27 PM
. * * TD1 not looking very good BillD   Sat Jul 31 2004 07:56 PM
. * * Re: Looks stationary javlin   Sat Jul 31 2004 07:54 PM
. * * NEW THREAD LI Phil   Sat Jul 31 2004 07:55 PM
. * * 8pm advisory hurricane_run   Sat Jul 31 2004 07:52 PM
. * * Re: 8pm advisory hurricane_run   Sat Jul 31 2004 07:54 PM
. * * Re: Zulu Time LI Phil   Sat Jul 31 2004 07:06 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Tremors caneman   Sat Jul 31 2004 11:07 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Tremors LI Phil   Sat Jul 31 2004 12:21 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Tremors Cycloneye   Sat Jul 31 2004 12:26 PM
. * * Quikscat on 99L LI Phil   Sat Jul 31 2004 12:30 PM
. * * First Storm PFSThunder   Sat Jul 31 2004 12:32 PM
. * * Re: First Storm joepub1   Sat Jul 31 2004 12:41 PM
. * * Re: First Storm Anonymous   Sat Jul 31 2004 12:50 PM

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