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#93L now a small better defined circulation with deep convection set to come ashore N of Tampico, MX. Recon investigating. Still 40% odds.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 299 (Idalia) , Major: 299 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 299 (Idalia) Major: 299 (Idalia)

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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

Anonymous
Unregistered

Re: Tropical Depression One
Sat Jul 31 2004 04:46 PM

WTNT71 KNHC 312033
SPFAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT JUL 31 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 30.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.6 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT TUE AUG 3 2004

LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E

32.9N 79.2W 47 X X X 47 NORFOLK VA X 1 10 5 16
34.0N 78.0W 17 7 1 X 25 OCEAN CITY MD X X 3 9 12
35.2N 76.6W X 12 5 2 19 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X 1 9 10
JACKSONVILLE FL 2 X X 1 3 NEW YORK CITY NY X X X 7 7
SAVANNAH GA 26 X X X 26 MONTAUK POINT NY X X X 5 5
CHARLESTON SC 45 X X X 45 PROVIDENCE RI X X X 3 3
MYRTLE BEACH SC 30 1 X X 31 NANTUCKET MA X X X 3 3
WILMINGTON NC 12 10 2 X 24 HYANNIS MA X X X 3 3
MOREHEAD CITY NC 2 13 4 1 20 BOSTON MA X X X 2 2
CAPE HATTERAS NC X 7 8 3 18

COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2PM SUN TO 2AM MON
C FROM 2AM MON TO 2PM MON
D FROM 2PM MON TO 2PM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER BEVEN

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Tropical Tremors	Ed Dunham	Sat Jul 31 2004 04:46 PM
Re: Tropical Tremors	javlin	Sat Jul 31 2004 05:19 PM
7/31	LI Phil	Sat Jul 31 2004 01:05 PM
Re: 7/31	Mike	Sat Jul 31 2004 06:19 PM
Re: 7/31	LI Phil	Sat Jul 31 2004 06:20 PM
Re: 7/31	James88	Sat Jul 31 2004 06:27 PM
Re: 7/31	Steve Hirschb.	Sat Jul 31 2004 01:23 PM
7/31, ed's called shot	HanKFranK	Sat Jul 31 2004 01:44 PM
Re: 7/31, ed's called shot	James88	Sat Jul 31 2004 02:22 PM
Re: 7/31, ed's called shot	GaryC	Sat Jul 31 2004 02:50 PM
RRecon	Anonymous	Sat Jul 31 2004 03:04 PM
Re: RRecon	Old Sailor	Sat Jul 31 2004 03:29 PM
Re: 7/31, ed's called shot	GaryC	Sat Jul 31 2004 02:57 PM
Re: 7/31, ed's called shot	DustDuchess	Sat Jul 31 2004 03:05 PM
17:45 Dvorak #s	LI Phil	Sat Jul 31 2004 03:29 PM
Melbourne Radar	LI Phil	Sat Jul 31 2004 03:35 PM
TD1 OFFICIAL	Rob_M	Sat Jul 31 2004 03:46 PM
Re: TD1 OFFICIAL	LI Phil	Sat Jul 31 2004 03:48 PM
Re: TD1 OFFICIAL	Rob_M	Sat Jul 31 2004 03:51 PM
Champagne TOAST!	LI Phil	Sat Jul 31 2004 03:55 PM
Just 7 hours away...	Cocoa Beach	Sat Jul 31 2004 06:44 PM
Re: Champagne TOAST!	James88	Sat Jul 31 2004 03:57 PM
Re: Champagne TOAST!	GaryC	Sat Jul 31 2004 04:01 PM
Re: Champagne TOAST!	Rabbit	Sat Jul 31 2004 04:21 PM
Re: Champagne TOAST!	Anonymous	Sat Jul 31 2004 04:35 PM
Tropical Depression One	James88	Sat Jul 31 2004 04:38 PM
Re: Tropical Depression One	Anonymous	Sat Jul 31 2004 04:40 PM
Re: Tropical Depression One	Anonymous	Sat Jul 31 2004 04:41 PM
Re: Tropical Depression One	GaryC	Sat Jul 31 2004 04:46 PM
Re: Tropical Depression One	GaryC	Sat Jul 31 2004 04:49 PM
Re: Tropical Depression One	hurricane_run	Sat Jul 31 2004 04:54 PM
Alex	LI Phil	Sat Jul 31 2004 04:56 PM
Re: Alex	Cycloneye	Sat Jul 31 2004 05:14 PM
Re: Alex	James88	Sat Jul 31 2004 05:16 PM
Champagne	LI Phil	Sat Jul 31 2004 05:21 PM
Re: Champagne	Rainband	Sat Jul 31 2004 05:34 PM
Re: Champagne	James88	Sat Jul 31 2004 05:32 PM
Re: Champagne	SirCane	Sat Jul 31 2004 06:26 PM
Re: Champagne	LI Phil	Sat Jul 31 2004 06:35 PM
Re: Alex	James88	Sat Jul 31 2004 05:00 PM
Re: Alex	Anonymous	Sat Jul 31 2004 05:34 PM
Re: Tropical Depression One	ticka1	Sat Jul 31 2004 04:56 PM
Re: Tropical Depression One	Anonymous	Sat Jul 31 2004 04:46 PM
Zulu Time	LI Phil	Sat Jul 31 2004 03:02 PM
Re: Zulu Time	WXMAN RICHIE	Sat Jul 31 2004 07:00 PM
Re: Zulu Time	hurricane_run	Sat Jul 31 2004 07:18 PM
Re: Zulu Time-MY TOTALLY BAD	LI Phil	Sat Jul 31 2004 07:22 PM
Re: Zulu Time-MY TOTALLY BAD	DustDuchess	Sat Jul 31 2004 07:27 PM
TD1 not looking very good	BillD	Sat Jul 31 2004 07:56 PM
Re: Looks stationary	javlin	Sat Jul 31 2004 07:54 PM
NEW THREAD	LI Phil	Sat Jul 31 2004 07:55 PM
8pm advisory	hurricane_run	Sat Jul 31 2004 07:52 PM
Re: 8pm advisory	hurricane_run	Sat Jul 31 2004 07:54 PM
Re: Zulu Time	LI Phil	Sat Jul 31 2004 07:06 PM
Re: Tropical Tremors	caneman	Sat Jul 31 2004 11:07 AM
Re: Tropical Tremors	LI Phil	Sat Jul 31 2004 12:21 PM
Re: Tropical Tremors	Cycloneye	Sat Jul 31 2004 12:26 PM
Quikscat on 99L	LI Phil	Sat Jul 31 2004 12:30 PM
First Storm	PFSThunder	Sat Jul 31 2004 12:32 PM
Re: First Storm	joepub1	Sat Jul 31 2004 12:41 PM
Re: First Storm	Anonymous	Sat Jul 31 2004 12:50 PM

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