joepub1
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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91L and friend, plus Alex
Sun Aug 01 2004 11:16 PM
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I agree that the CV season is about to present us with at least one, if not two more features to track. But first I'll say for a TS that appears to be getting stronger, and the pressure is down to 1007 mb, you can't tell by being here in Jax. Hardly any rain today, very warm, slight but steady N/NW wind. You just couldn't con me into believing that there was a TS out there if I didn't know it. More weather yesterday when it was east of here instead of NE for sure. But he does look more like a classic baby TS now then he did. Not bad for the first one of the season.
The models already are killing me in the deep atlantic. The AVN had twins forming before the islands four, five runs ago, I swear. Now it has backed off of that, yet it seems that is what might happen. 91L is giving another burst tonight, and the TPC says a depression could form in the next day or two. But I think it's the wave that came off Africa today that most models are giving some kind of chance to form. Most miss the first one, but it looks OK to me. Chances are we may get two though. If 91lL develops, then the future 92L (or 93L, what's going on in the SE GOM???) should develop also IMO. The bigger picture shows the BH weaking as Alex moves up the coast, allowing some northwest movement of 91L, but then the door seems to shut again before it can get away. 91L is down around 11-12 N anyway; it has alot of room to work with. Todays wave seemed a tad bit higher, but the door should shut long before it gets developed ( if it does). We should keep one one peeking out that way for the next couple of days.
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