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Gulf area up to 60% chance for weak development. A new Atlantic system is now up with a 20% chance for development, FL east coast and GA coast should watch for mid-late this week.**
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 291 (Idalia) , Major: 291 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 291 (Idalia) Major: 291 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
activity spike
      Tue Aug 03 2004 12:46 AM

there are two tropical systems out there tonight. i'm going to go ahead and classify t.d. 2 now, actually several hours ago when it rated 2.0. nhc will just have to fix that in the post-analysis.
alex first. three days ago i was holding out that it would nudge west into georgia or something, but instead it made an attempted cycloidal loop last 36 hours (think it came out with a figure eight) and now has finally had the ridge removed. latest shots tell me that it's accelerating.. and still trying to form an eye. upper sw-erlies are going to start infringing overnight but that should result more in a baroclinic jolt than anything else, and alex should be a hurricane when it runs the outer banks. i'm going to set my sights on a gustav '02-style graze from cape lookout along the barrier islands. eyewall onshore, eye center at or just offshore. think intensity will be 70kt give or take, and peak around 80kt east of virginia early wednesday.
91L, or tropical depression 2 as i prefer, will be officially classified at 11, unless the nhc feels like delaying this information will do the central islands any good. it's at 12N/49W or so, current trajectory around 280, motion maybe 16kt. slowing a tad, and i'm thinking it will begin to move wnw tomorrow. a cdo is developing and it will be bonnie by midday tomorrow. should reach the islands around guadeloupe wednesday afternoon. i'm really iffy on the upper air setup. it will have to deal with some shear around the greater antilles.. and probably a good chunk of island (d.r.?). my long-run take is that if it gets to be a hurricane before reaching 60w, it will recurve ahead of the upper trough late in the week and clip bermuda or something. if it stays below it should get hung near the bahamas around the weekend.. too little information to make an educated guess from there.
add into the mix the cutoff energy near 24/62.. not very impressive at the moment and unlikely to develop.. but if it starts up it throws future bonnie's fate into the air.
92L is far east and unlikely to develop much over the next 2 days.. it will probably maintain or wane a tad, and stay on a mostly westward course. expect it's run to come later in the week. if it's development comes early, it will move wnw into very dry conditions and marginally warm waters.. and struggle anyway. gfs has it going way out into the north atlantic.. don't buy that just now.
gfs likes a follow on wave to 92L (watcher for late week) and there is a low potential for alex's 'tail' to fester in the gulf. not a concern right now.
the sharp trough forecast to dig into the east this weekend i expect to split.. if future bonnie is strong it will run up ahead of it.. if it intensifies slowly and hangs near the caribbean it will be a problem for the u.s. later, because once that trough splits the east coast is wide open again. gfs has a few runs (these are not terribly believeable) where the trough sets up camp a'la 2000 and keeps the everybody west of 70w out of trouble. could be true, but i think it's just a dumb idea gfs has stuck in it's noggin.
HF 0046z03august

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropical Storm Alex Strengthens - Hurricane Warnings up for NC MikeCAdministrator Tue Aug 03 2004 12:46 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex Strengthens cyclone_head   Mon Aug 02 2004 01:42 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex Strengthens Rabbit   Mon Aug 02 2004 01:09 PM
. * * Alex Strengthens, 91L develops and 92L forms James88   Mon Aug 02 2004 01:14 PM
. * * Re: Alex Strengthens, 91L develops and 92L forms Rabbit   Mon Aug 02 2004 01:21 PM
. * * Re: Alex Strengthens, 91L develops and 92L forms h2ocean   Mon Aug 02 2004 01:23 PM
. * * Re: Alex Strengthens, 91L develops and 92L forms Steve hirsch.   Mon Aug 02 2004 01:28 PM
. * * Re: Alex Strengthens, 91L develops and 92L forms James88   Mon Aug 02 2004 01:31 PM
. * * Eye Forming Anonymous   Mon Aug 02 2004 01:37 PM
. * * Re: Eye Forming James88   Mon Aug 02 2004 01:42 PM
. * * Re: Eye Forming DustDuchess   Mon Aug 02 2004 01:51 PM
. * * Re: Eye Forming Cycloneye   Mon Aug 02 2004 02:08 PM
. * * gorgeous alex and more gorgeous waves bobbi   Mon Aug 02 2004 03:11 PM
. * * Re: Eye Forming Anonymous   Mon Aug 02 2004 02:38 PM
. * * Re: Eye Forming James88   Mon Aug 02 2004 02:32 PM
. * * Season heating up rickonboat   Mon Aug 02 2004 02:43 PM
. * * 91L Models LI Phil   Mon Aug 02 2004 02:47 PM
. * * oh NICE... FINALLY SOMEONE WANTS TO TALK ABOUT THE WAVES :) bobbi   Mon Aug 02 2004 03:39 PM
. * * Re: oh NICE... FINALLY SOMEONE WANTS TO TALK ABOUT THE WAVES :) LI Phil   Mon Aug 02 2004 03:42 PM
. * * Re: oh NICE... FINALLY SOMEONE WANTS TO TALK ABOUT THE WAVES :) h2ocean   Mon Aug 02 2004 03:59 PM
. * * Re: oh NICE... FINALLY SOMEONE WANTS TO TALK ABOUT THE WAVES :) doug   Mon Aug 02 2004 04:34 PM
. * * Re: oh NICE... FINALLY SOMEONE WANTS TO TALK ABOUT THE WAVES :) Anonymous   Mon Aug 02 2004 04:30 PM
. * * Joe (B) versus the Volcano (NHC) LI Phil   Mon Aug 02 2004 04:38 PM
. * * Re: Joe (B) versus the Volcano (NHC) garyb   Mon Aug 02 2004 04:42 PM
. * * Graphical model maps LI Phil   Mon Aug 02 2004 04:45 PM
. * * Re: Graphical model maps teal61   Mon Aug 02 2004 04:49 PM
. * * Re: Graphical model maps garyb   Mon Aug 02 2004 04:49 PM
. * * 91L.... rmbjoe1954   Mon Aug 02 2004 04:34 PM
. * * Re: 91L.... doug   Mon Aug 02 2004 04:56 PM
. * * Re: 91L.... doug   Mon Aug 02 2004 05:02 PM
. * * Re: 91L.... summercyclone   Mon Aug 02 2004 05:22 PM
. * * Re: 91L....CDO? summercyclone   Mon Aug 02 2004 05:55 PM
. * * 2 pm hurricane_run   Mon Aug 02 2004 05:54 PM
. * * Re: 2 pm hurricane_run   Mon Aug 02 2004 05:58 PM
. * * Re: Eye summercyclone   Mon Aug 02 2004 06:04 PM
. * * 17:45 T #s LI Phil   Mon Aug 02 2004 06:25 PM
. * * 91 has one beautiful red dot on invest bobbi   Mon Aug 02 2004 06:39 PM
. * * Alex and waves Rabbit   Mon Aug 02 2004 07:35 PM
. * * Re: Alex and waves LI Phil   Mon Aug 02 2004 08:01 PM
. * * Re: Alex and waves James88   Mon Aug 02 2004 08:11 PM
. * * Re: Alex and waves Old Sailor   Mon Aug 02 2004 08:25 PM
. * * Re: Alex and waves LI Phil   Mon Aug 02 2004 08:37 PM
. * * Re: Alex and waves summercyclone   Mon Aug 02 2004 08:50 PM
. * * Re: Alex hurricane_run   Mon Aug 02 2004 08:49 PM
. * * Hurricane Warnings James88   Mon Aug 02 2004 08:46 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings LI Phil   Mon Aug 02 2004 08:54 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 02 2004 08:57 PM
. * * alex, bonnie?, black out rain in miami and other tropical thoughts bobbi   Mon Aug 02 2004 09:18 PM
. * * Re: alex, bonnie?, black out rain in miami and other tropical thoughts Anonymous   Mon Aug 02 2004 09:24 PM
. * * Re: alex, bonnie?, black out rain in miami and other tropical thoughts Rich B   Mon Aug 02 2004 09:34 PM
. * * Re: alex, bonnie?, black out rain in miami and other tropical thoughts Anonymous   Mon Aug 02 2004 09:47 PM
. * * Re: alex, bonnie?, black out rain in miami and other tropical thoughts Rabbit   Mon Aug 02 2004 10:01 PM
. * * Dr. Gray's Seasonal Forecast -August Update rmbjoe1954   Mon Aug 02 2004 10:15 PM
. * * Things are popping now! WxNLUcantlogin   Mon Aug 02 2004 11:18 PM
. * * 91L Jamiewx   Tue Aug 03 2004 12:09 AM
. * * activity spike HanKFranK   Tue Aug 03 2004 12:46 AM
. * * for hank LoisCane   Tue Aug 03 2004 02:52 AM
. * * Re: 91L Robert   Tue Aug 03 2004 12:11 AM
. * * Re: 91L danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 03 2004 12:30 AM
. * * Re: 91L danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 03 2004 12:46 AM
. * * Eye of the Storm Anonymous   Tue Aug 03 2004 12:47 AM
. * * Re: 91L Model FCST danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 03 2004 01:10 AM
. * * 92L Jamiewx   Tue Aug 03 2004 12:57 AM
. * * good idea joe LoisCane   Mon Aug 02 2004 11:12 PM
. * * Next Recon MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 02 2004 09:28 PM
. * * Re: alex, bonnie?, black out rain in miami and other tropical thoughts LI Phil   Mon Aug 02 2004 09:21 PM
. * * strawberry wishes... LoisCane   Mon Aug 02 2004 11:15 PM
. * * Re: strawberry wishes... LI Phil   Mon Aug 02 2004 11:54 PM
. * * Re: strawberry wishes... danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 03 2004 01:15 AM
. * * 988 HanKFranK   Tue Aug 03 2004 01:31 AM
. * * Re: 987mb 62kt 10mile EYE danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 03 2004 01:38 AM
. * * alex and ??? LoisCane   Tue Aug 03 2004 02:18 AM
. * * Re: alex and ??? LI Phil   Tue Aug 03 2004 02:25 AM
. * * Re: alex and ??? Jamiewx   Tue Aug 03 2004 02:33 AM
. * * Re: alex and ??? joepub1   Tue Aug 03 2004 03:06 AM
. * * Alex at 11pm hurricane_run   Tue Aug 03 2004 02:43 AM
. * * Alex to 70MPH!! Anonymous   Tue Aug 03 2004 02:38 AM
. * * Re: Alex to 70MPH!! LI Phil   Tue Aug 03 2004 02:44 AM
. * * Re: Alex to 70MPH!! hurricane_run   Tue Aug 03 2004 03:09 AM
. * * Re: Alex to 70MPH!! hurricane_run   Tue Aug 03 2004 03:13 AM
. * * Hurricane Alex James88   Tue Aug 03 2004 05:50 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Alex danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 03 2004 05:57 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Alex danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 03 2004 06:04 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Alex joepub1   Tue Aug 03 2004 06:15 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Alex James88   Tue Aug 03 2004 06:22 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Alex joepub1   Tue Aug 03 2004 06:37 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Alex danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 03 2004 07:46 AM
. * * Re: 91L danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 03 2004 06:26 AM
. * * Re: 91L joepub1   Tue Aug 03 2004 06:47 AM
. * * Re: 91L James88   Tue Aug 03 2004 06:49 AM
. * * Re: 91L joepub1   Tue Aug 03 2004 07:04 AM
. * * Re: 91L James88   Tue Aug 03 2004 07:09 AM
. * * Re: 91L danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 03 2004 07:59 AM
. * * Re: 91L danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 03 2004 10:13 AM
. * * Re: 91L jlauderdal   Tue Aug 03 2004 10:12 AM
. * * Re: 91L Ed DunhamAdministrator   Tue Aug 03 2004 10:24 AM
. * * Re: 91L jlauderdal   Tue Aug 03 2004 10:34 AM
. * * Re: Opening and Closing of Doors danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 03 2004 10:53 AM
. * * Opening and Closing of Multiple Doors LoisCane   Tue Aug 03 2004 11:52 AM
. * * Re: 91L danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 03 2004 10:32 AM
. * * Hurricane Alex strengthens further James88   Tue Aug 03 2004 08:50 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Alex strengthens further Rich B   Tue Aug 03 2004 09:25 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Alex strengthens further James88   Tue Aug 03 2004 09:40 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Alex strengthens further Old Sailor   Tue Aug 03 2004 09:52 AM
. * * cant sleep LoisCane   Tue Aug 03 2004 09:15 AM
. * * Re: alex and ??? 92L? danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 03 2004 02:23 AM
. * * Re: Alex and waves Rabbit   Mon Aug 02 2004 07:46 PM
. * * Re: 17:45 T #s James88   Mon Aug 02 2004 06:32 PM
. * * Re: NHC hanging tough summercyclone   Mon Aug 02 2004 05:57 PM
. * * Re: 91L.... James88   Mon Aug 02 2004 05:54 PM
. * * Re: 91L.... LI Phil   Mon Aug 02 2004 05:53 PM
. * * Re: 91L.... Old Sailor   Mon Aug 02 2004 06:01 PM
. * * Re: 91L.... Storm Cooper   Mon Aug 02 2004 05:16 PM
. * * Re: 91L.... Tropics Guy   Mon Aug 02 2004 05:19 PM
. * * I see no easterly movement... rickonboat   Mon Aug 02 2004 03:55 PM
. * * Re: I see no easterly movement... doug   Mon Aug 02 2004 04:27 PM
. * * Re: I see no easterly movement... James88   Mon Aug 02 2004 04:28 PM
. * * Re: I see no easterly movement... rmbjoe1954   Mon Aug 02 2004 04:43 PM
. * * 11:00 Advisory James88   Mon Aug 02 2004 02:49 PM
. * * Some thoughts on Alex... LI Phil   Mon Aug 02 2004 03:04 PM
. * * Re: Some thoughts on Alex... Rich B   Mon Aug 02 2004 03:27 PM
. * * Re: 11:00 Advisory PFSThunder   Mon Aug 02 2004 03:01 PM
. * * Re: 11:00 Advisory cyclone_head   Mon Aug 02 2004 05:15 PM
. * * Re: 11:00 Advisory James88   Mon Aug 02 2004 03:04 PM
. * * Re: Season heating up James88   Mon Aug 02 2004 02:45 PM
. * * Re: Eye Forming James88   Mon Aug 02 2004 01:54 PM

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