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Invest 95L in the Tropical Atlantic now has a 90% chance to develop over the next 7 days, and a 70% chance to do so in the next 48 hours. Recon scheduled for Sunday morning.a
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
Re: Alexs Becomes First Hurricane of Season, Skirts NC Coastline
      Tue Aug 03 2004 07:58 AM

A VERY ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY NEAR 51 OR 52 WEST OR ABOUT
950 MILES TO THE SOUTHEAST EAST OF THE U.S.V.I...CONTINUES TO THE
WEST NORTH WEST AROUND 15 KNOTS. TPC ESTIMATES THAT THERE IS A 1011
MB LOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT. IT COULD VERY WELL BE UPGRADED TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TODAY ONCE THE VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY STARTS COMING
IN. WITH THE NIGHT TIME IMAGERY IT IS HARD TO DISCERN A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. THE LATEST QUICKSCAT PASS NEAR 22Z DID INDICATE A
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES IT
WILL APPROACH THE U.S.V.I AND PUERTO RICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...INITIALLY THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE WAVE.
THEN THE GUIDANCE DOES SOME FLIP FLOPPING ABOUT THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AND IT IS HARD TO DISCERN IF THE MAIN WAVE
ENERGY WILL PASS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IT MAY PASS JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION. BUT IT IS TOO SOON TO TELL AND THIS ACTIVE WAVE MUST BE
CLOSELY MONITORED...ESPECIALLY AS SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

This was the discussion from the San Juan NWS.

Here in Puerto Rico I am watching all of this and the officials too.Regardless of what turns out to be when it nears Puerto Rico copius rains will arrive starting thrusday going into friday.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Alex Becomes First Hurricane of Season, Skirts NC Coastline MikeCAdministrator Tue Aug 03 2004 07:58 AM
. * * Re: Alexs Becomes First Hurricane of Season, Skirts NC Coastline danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 03 2004 07:58 AM
. * * Re: Alexs Becomes First Hurricane of Season, Skirts NC Coastline summercyclone   Tue Aug 03 2004 10:00 AM
. * * Alexs Becomes First Hurricane of Season, affecting NC Coastline LoisCane   Tue Aug 03 2004 10:04 AM
. * * Re: 8AM EDT ADVISORY- 90 MPH! danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 03 2004 08:10 AM
. * * Re: Miami we got a problem!! danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 03 2004 08:12 AM
. * * Re: Miami we got a problem!! James88   Tue Aug 03 2004 08:21 AM
. * * Re: Miami we got a problem!! danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 03 2004 08:34 AM
. * * 91L rmbjoe1954   Tue Aug 03 2004 08:32 AM
. * * Re: 91L danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 03 2004 08:52 AM
. * * Re: 91L danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 03 2004 09:07 AM
. * * Re: 91L James88   Tue Aug 03 2004 08:35 AM
. * * 90mph and 91 LoisCane   Tue Aug 03 2004 09:04 AM
. * * Re: Site Question Ed DunhamAdministrator   Tue Aug 03 2004 10:40 AM
. * * Td #2 hurricane_run   Tue Aug 03 2004 10:52 AM
. * * Re: Td #2 hurricane_run   Tue Aug 03 2004 10:58 AM
. * * Alex CAT 2 hurricane_run   Tue Aug 03 2004 10:52 AM
. * * Re: Alex CAT 2 hurricane_run   Tue Aug 03 2004 11:01 AM
. * * Re: Alex CAT 2 LI Phil   Tue Aug 03 2004 11:02 AM
. * * Re: 90mph and 91 summercyclone   Tue Aug 03 2004 10:07 AM
. * * Re: 90mph and 91 Anonymous   Tue Aug 03 2004 10:17 AM
. * * Re: 90mph and 91 danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 03 2004 09:11 AM
. * * Re: 90mph and 91 Steve   Tue Aug 03 2004 09:40 AM
. * * Re: 90mph and 91 danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 03 2004 10:07 AM
. * * Re: 90mph and 91 Tropics Guy   Tue Aug 03 2004 10:35 AM
. * * Re: 90mph and 91 LI Phil   Tue Aug 03 2004 10:37 AM
. * * Quick Post LI Phil   Tue Aug 03 2004 10:18 AM
. * * Re: Cape Look OUT!, NC danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 03 2004 10:29 AM
. * * eye wall hurricane_run   Tue Aug 03 2004 10:24 AM
. * * 91L Modeling LI Phil   Tue Aug 03 2004 10:31 AM
. * * thanks everyone LoisCane   Tue Aug 03 2004 10:55 AM
. * * question on Alex and models LoisCane   Tue Aug 03 2004 09:35 AM
. * * Re: question on Alex and models hurricane_run   Tue Aug 03 2004 09:56 AM
. * * Re: Alexs Becomes First Hurricane of Season, Skirts NC Coastline Cycloneye   Tue Aug 03 2004 07:58 AM

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