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Gulf area up to 60% chance for weak development. A new Atlantic system is now up with a 20% chance for development, FL east coast and GA coast should watch for mid-late this week.**
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 291 (Idalia) , Major: 291 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 291 (Idalia) Major: 291 (Idalia)
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danielwAdministrator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: 90mph and 91
      Tue Aug 03 2004 02:07 PM

Okay I've checked the new 91L models against the one from 12hrs ago. All 4 models, have reduced the latitude and lengthened the longitude. 00Z models were in the 14.1-14.7N and 57.6-59.0 range. 12Z models are showing 14.2-14.7N and 59.4-60.7W for 24hr period ending at 12Z on 80404. Intensity fcst remains at 37kts for 080404 12Z.

I don't have a lot of data on Alex's models. 12hr fcst was for 68kts. 90mph equals about 78kts. Looking back on the last 3 model outputs none of them took Alex above 77kts.
BAMD hit closest on lat/long. -0.2N/ -0.2W. Not bad at all for 12 hours. That should be about 15 miles off.

Ship report from 122nm NNE of 91L at 12Z.
C6QD2 S 1200z 15.60N -53.60W 122nm 8dg wind050@ 20.0kts - - - bar29.97 +0.00 airT82.4 seaT82.4 dpT79.9 vis6.2nm -


Edited by danielw (Tue Aug 03 2004 02:21 PM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Alex Becomes First Hurricane of Season, Skirts NC Coastline MikeCAdministrator Tue Aug 03 2004 02:07 PM
. * * Re: Alexs Becomes First Hurricane of Season, Skirts NC Coastline danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 03 2004 11:58 AM
. * * Re: Alexs Becomes First Hurricane of Season, Skirts NC Coastline summercyclone   Tue Aug 03 2004 02:00 PM
. * * Alexs Becomes First Hurricane of Season, affecting NC Coastline LoisCane   Tue Aug 03 2004 02:04 PM
. * * Re: 8AM EDT ADVISORY- 90 MPH! danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 03 2004 12:10 PM
. * * Re: Miami we got a problem!! danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 03 2004 12:12 PM
. * * Re: Miami we got a problem!! James88   Tue Aug 03 2004 12:21 PM
. * * Re: Miami we got a problem!! danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 03 2004 12:34 PM
. * * 91L rmbjoe1954   Tue Aug 03 2004 12:32 PM
. * * Re: 91L danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 03 2004 12:52 PM
. * * Re: 91L danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 03 2004 01:07 PM
. * * Re: 91L James88   Tue Aug 03 2004 12:35 PM
. * * 90mph and 91 LoisCane   Tue Aug 03 2004 01:04 PM
. * * Re: Site Question Ed DunhamAdministrator   Tue Aug 03 2004 02:40 PM
. * * Td #2 hurricane_run   Tue Aug 03 2004 02:52 PM
. * * Re: Td #2 hurricane_run   Tue Aug 03 2004 02:58 PM
. * * Alex CAT 2 hurricane_run   Tue Aug 03 2004 02:52 PM
. * * Re: Alex CAT 2 hurricane_run   Tue Aug 03 2004 03:01 PM
. * * Re: Alex CAT 2 LI Phil   Tue Aug 03 2004 03:02 PM
. * * Re: 90mph and 91 summercyclone   Tue Aug 03 2004 02:07 PM
. * * Re: 90mph and 91 Anonymous   Tue Aug 03 2004 02:17 PM
. * * Re: 90mph and 91 danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 03 2004 01:11 PM
. * * Re: 90mph and 91 Steve   Tue Aug 03 2004 01:40 PM
. * * Re: 90mph and 91 danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 03 2004 02:07 PM
. * * Re: 90mph and 91 Tropics Guy   Tue Aug 03 2004 02:35 PM
. * * Re: 90mph and 91 LI Phil   Tue Aug 03 2004 02:37 PM
. * * Quick Post LI Phil   Tue Aug 03 2004 02:18 PM
. * * Re: Cape Look OUT!, NC danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 03 2004 02:29 PM
. * * eye wall hurricane_run   Tue Aug 03 2004 02:24 PM
. * * 91L Modeling LI Phil   Tue Aug 03 2004 02:31 PM
. * * thanks everyone LoisCane   Tue Aug 03 2004 02:55 PM
. * * question on Alex and models LoisCane   Tue Aug 03 2004 01:35 PM
. * * Re: question on Alex and models hurricane_run   Tue Aug 03 2004 01:56 PM
. * * Re: Alexs Becomes First Hurricane of Season, Skirts NC Coastline Cycloneye   Tue Aug 03 2004 11:58 AM

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