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Invest 94L just northeast of the ABC islands in the Caribbean moving west, 20% development chance. Another area near the Cabo Verde islands has a 20% chance to develop over the next 7 days.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 300 (Idalia) , Major: 300 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 300 (Idalia) Major: 300 (Idalia)
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danielwAdministrator
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Reged:
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: 90mph and 91
      Tue Aug 03 2004 10:07 AM

Okay I've checked the new 91L models against the one from 12hrs ago. All 4 models, have reduced the latitude and lengthened the longitude. 00Z models were in the 14.1-14.7N and 57.6-59.0 range. 12Z models are showing 14.2-14.7N and 59.4-60.7W for 24hr period ending at 12Z on 80404. Intensity fcst remains at 37kts for 080404 12Z.

I don't have a lot of data on Alex's models. 12hr fcst was for 68kts. 90mph equals about 78kts. Looking back on the last 3 model outputs none of them took Alex above 77kts.
BAMD hit closest on lat/long. -0.2N/ -0.2W. Not bad at all for 12 hours. That should be about 15 miles off.

Ship report from 122nm NNE of 91L at 12Z.
C6QD2 S 1200z 15.60N -53.60W 122nm 8dg wind050@ 20.0kts - - - bar29.97 +0.00 airT82.4 seaT82.4 dpT79.9 vis6.2nm -


Edited by danielw (Tue Aug 03 2004 10:21 AM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Alex Becomes First Hurricane of Season, Skirts NC Coastline MikeCAdministrator Tue Aug 03 2004 10:07 AM
. * * Re: Alexs Becomes First Hurricane of Season, Skirts NC Coastline danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 03 2004 07:58 AM
. * * Re: Alexs Becomes First Hurricane of Season, Skirts NC Coastline summercyclone   Tue Aug 03 2004 10:00 AM
. * * Alexs Becomes First Hurricane of Season, affecting NC Coastline LoisCane   Tue Aug 03 2004 10:04 AM
. * * Re: 8AM EDT ADVISORY- 90 MPH! danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 03 2004 08:10 AM
. * * Re: Miami we got a problem!! danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 03 2004 08:12 AM
. * * Re: Miami we got a problem!! James88   Tue Aug 03 2004 08:21 AM
. * * Re: Miami we got a problem!! danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 03 2004 08:34 AM
. * * 91L rmbjoe1954   Tue Aug 03 2004 08:32 AM
. * * Re: 91L danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 03 2004 08:52 AM
. * * Re: 91L danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 03 2004 09:07 AM
. * * Re: 91L James88   Tue Aug 03 2004 08:35 AM
. * * 90mph and 91 LoisCane   Tue Aug 03 2004 09:04 AM
. * * Re: Site Question Ed DunhamAdministrator   Tue Aug 03 2004 10:40 AM
. * * Td #2 hurricane_run   Tue Aug 03 2004 10:52 AM
. * * Re: Td #2 hurricane_run   Tue Aug 03 2004 10:58 AM
. * * Alex CAT 2 hurricane_run   Tue Aug 03 2004 10:52 AM
. * * Re: Alex CAT 2 hurricane_run   Tue Aug 03 2004 11:01 AM
. * * Re: Alex CAT 2 LI Phil   Tue Aug 03 2004 11:02 AM
. * * Re: 90mph and 91 summercyclone   Tue Aug 03 2004 10:07 AM
. * * Re: 90mph and 91 Anonymous   Tue Aug 03 2004 10:17 AM
. * * Re: 90mph and 91 danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 03 2004 09:11 AM
. * * Re: 90mph and 91 Steve   Tue Aug 03 2004 09:40 AM
. * * Re: 90mph and 91 danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 03 2004 10:07 AM
. * * Re: 90mph and 91 Tropics Guy   Tue Aug 03 2004 10:35 AM
. * * Re: 90mph and 91 LI Phil   Tue Aug 03 2004 10:37 AM
. * * Quick Post LI Phil   Tue Aug 03 2004 10:18 AM
. * * Re: Cape Look OUT!, NC danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 03 2004 10:29 AM
. * * eye wall hurricane_run   Tue Aug 03 2004 10:24 AM
. * * 91L Modeling LI Phil   Tue Aug 03 2004 10:31 AM
. * * thanks everyone LoisCane   Tue Aug 03 2004 10:55 AM
. * * question on Alex and models LoisCane   Tue Aug 03 2004 09:35 AM
. * * Re: question on Alex and models hurricane_run   Tue Aug 03 2004 09:56 AM
. * * Re: Alexs Becomes First Hurricane of Season, Skirts NC Coastline Cycloneye   Tue Aug 03 2004 07:58 AM

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