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Invest 94L just northeast of the ABC islands in the Caribbean moving west, 20% development chance. Another area near the Cabo Verde islands has a 20% chance to develop over the next 7 days.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 300 (Idalia) , Major: 300 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 300 (Idalia) Major: 300 (Idalia)
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News Talkback >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback
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Jason M
Weather Watcher


Reged:
Posts: 39
Loc: New Orleans
Atlantic Discussion (Very Interesting)
      Wed Aug 07 2002 06:59 AM

FORECAST POSTED: 8/07/02/ 6:35 AM EDT

ATLANTIC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK:

We are still watching the remants of tropical storm Bertha. The HPC has written te last advisory on the system and Bertha is no longer a tropical depression. The center of circulation has just moved off of the central Louisiana coast and is now over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Some redevelopment is possible. However, there is an upper level low near the mouth of the Mississippi River moving WSW. This low will cause conditions across the northern Gulf to become marginal, at best for redevelopment. By the time the upper low moves out of the picture, the remnants of Bertha may be inland over southern Texas. We will still be keeping a close eye on the remnants of Bertha.

The area that concerns me the most besides Bertha and Christobal, is the central and southeast Gulf of Mexico. The models are indicating a possible developing low in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico in a few days. The odels may be hinting on a pice of energy that may brake off from the trough to the north. OR, this could be the convection you see just east of Florida. I made note of this in my active storms discussion. What may happen, is that the low level center may move east, and leave all fo the convection behins. This is just speculation since the models are the only thing indicating a low center in the area. VERY interesting.

The remainder of the Atlantic basin is quiet. We do see an approaching wave near 40W but the wave won't have much of a chance as it is moving into a shear environment.

Tropical storm formation is not expected through Friday.

FORECASTER: Jason Moreland, TWWFT



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DISCLAIMER: THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE LISTEN TO YOUR LOCAL NEWS OR THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropical Storm Cristobal Forms From TD3 CFHCAdministrator Wed Aug 07 2002 06:59 AM
. * * Dr. Gray Lowers Forecast Anonymous   Wed Aug 07 2002 07:37 AM
. * * Re: Dr. Gray Lowers Forecast ShawnS   Wed Aug 07 2002 08:07 AM
. * * 6AM Christobal Update Jason M   Wed Aug 07 2002 06:19 AM
. * * Atlantic Discussion (Very Interesting) Jason M   Wed Aug 07 2002 06:59 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Cristobal Forms From TD3 Keith L.   Tue Aug 06 2002 11:06 PM
. * * Latest on Bertha.. Houstontracker   Tue Aug 06 2002 11:11 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Cristobal Forms From TD3 tom5r   Tue Aug 06 2002 10:37 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Cristobal Forms From TD3 57497479   Tue Aug 06 2002 11:09 PM
. * * 11 pm update WXMAN RICHIE   Tue Aug 06 2002 10:56 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Cristobal Forms From TD3 Keith L.   Tue Aug 06 2002 10:35 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Cristobal Forms From TD3 57497479   Tue Aug 06 2002 11:44 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Cristobal Forms From TD3 57497479   Wed Aug 07 2002 12:22 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Cristobal Forms From TD3 ShawnS   Tue Aug 06 2002 09:24 PM
. * * Excitement - I agree... Steve   Tue Aug 06 2002 09:36 PM
. * * Probabilities WXMAN RICHIE   Tue Aug 06 2002 10:32 PM

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