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#93L now a small better defined circulation with deep convection set to come ashore N of Tampico, MX. Recon investigating. Still 40% odds.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 299 (Idalia) , Major: 299 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 299 (Idalia) Major: 299 (Idalia)
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News Talkback >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback
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Kevin
Weather Master


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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Bertha's return, Christobal, and Gray's HORRIBLE new forecast.
      Wed Aug 07 2002 04:21 PM

Bertha's return: This one's simple. The low with Bertha has moved back out over water and a ring of intense convection has developed near the center. By tommorrow morning the system should be fairly easy to define as a tropical low, followed by re-development later tommorrow. This one could hit south TX or north Mexico as a moderate category 1 as I see it at this point. It is currently heading southwesterly. Heads up to everyone along the western Gulf, Bertha's coming back for seconds.

Christobal: His tracking has been just as weird as his name. It does appear the main area of low pressure will be taken northeast by the trough but there is an area of energy over south Florida that could be left behind. I've have to think that this piece of energy could develop eventually (in Carribbean or GOMEX). The weather has been tropical here in central Florida: sunny, rain and wind, sunny, rain and wind, and you get the point. It was also storming around 5 AM here this morning, a rare thing inland. You know something's different when that happens.

Gray's forecast: Three words. BASTARDI IS SUPERIOR. For this year, anyway. Just look at his record: he's pegged nearly all of the systems that have formed this year ahead of time. He really seems to have a good feel for the pattern this year, something he's lacked in recent years. Only 4 hurricanes and 1 major? No way. My forecast of 11/6/2-3 should prove superior to Gray's as will Bastardi's. It should also be noted that many of his new analogs HAVE MAJOR SOUTH FLORIDA HITS. Betsy and Andrew are among them. It's almost like bits of his forecast contradict what he's saying. As for El Nino: Moderate? Maybe when hell freezes over. This El Nono is an afterthought at best.

I'm glad to say my first few days of high school have gone well!


The tropics are getting interesting and I'm loving it.


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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Cristobal... See the East? Take a Hike CFHCAdministrator Wed Aug 07 2002 04:21 PM
. * * Bertha Rickoshade   Wed Aug 07 2002 04:53 PM
. * * Re: Cristobal... See the East? Take a Hike Anonymous   Wed Aug 07 2002 04:43 PM
. * * Kevin's Post Anonymous   Wed Aug 07 2002 04:41 PM
. * * Bertha is coming Back Anonymous   Wed Aug 07 2002 02:24 PM
. * * Re: Bertha is coming Back ShawnS   Wed Aug 07 2002 02:41 PM
. * * Re: Bertha is coming Back Anonymous   Wed Aug 07 2002 04:36 PM
. * * Re: Bertha is coming Back Anonymous   Wed Aug 07 2002 02:47 PM
. * * Bertha's return, Christobal, and Gray's HORRIBLE new forecast. Kevin   Wed Aug 07 2002 04:21 PM
. * * Re: Cristobal... See the East? Take a Hike Anonymous-doug   Wed Aug 07 2002 01:33 PM
. * * Re: Cristobal... See the East? Take a Hike Anonymous   Wed Aug 07 2002 01:11 PM
. * * Re: Cristobal... See the East? Take a Hike Hurric   Wed Aug 07 2002 12:59 PM
. * * Hey Ed...It's the Bronx Cheer for you! Anonymous   Wed Aug 07 2002 12:51 PM
. * * Re: Cristobal... See the East? Take a Hike Keith L   Wed Aug 07 2002 12:44 PM
. * * Re: Cristobal... See the East? Take a Hike jth   Wed Aug 07 2002 12:49 PM
. * * Re: Cristobal... See the East? Take a Hike Anonymous-doug   Wed Aug 07 2002 12:29 PM
. * * OK OK..ED!! Anonymous   Wed Aug 07 2002 12:27 PM
. * * Re: Cristobal... See the East? Take a Hike Rickoshade   Wed Aug 07 2002 11:05 AM
. * * Re: Cristobal... About to be kicked out StormHound   Wed Aug 07 2002 10:53 AM
. * * Re: Cristobal... See the East? Take a Hike Anonymous   Wed Aug 07 2002 10:36 AM
. * * Re: Cristobal... See the East? Take a Hike Steve   Wed Aug 07 2002 09:46 AM
. * * Re: The Numbers Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Aug 07 2002 10:42 AM

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