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Rafael continues to decouple over the Gulf. Meanwhile we are keeping a watch on Invest 98L around the Bahamas and potentially a new low forming in the Caribbean.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 31 (Milton) , Major: 31 (Milton) Florida - Any: 31 (Milton) Major: 31 (Milton)
TS Rafael
ADV#29 9:00 am EDT
26.3N 91.9W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 1003mb
Moving:
Nnw at 3 mph
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: Not Gone, but coming back?
      Thu Aug 05 2004 11:00 AM

I had some thoughts on XTD2 when I first looked at it this morning. It reminded me a bit of 90L which I think was the wave that slowed down, split, helped spawn the rogue storm off the east coast and then continued on across the southern Gulf into Mexico. The difference was that the trof split was already in front of this particular system instead of meeting it halfway. Hostile conditions await, but if it can bust that trof split, the southern axis of the wave may well get a chance to crank near where >I< have it progged in Hank Frank's contest. What we're seeing today appears to be divergence based on the wave interacting with the eastern boundary of the trof. We're also seeing the wave split with some of the energy heading off NW while the southern energy progresses westward (albeit at its slowest rate so far). I think the Eastern Gulf may have to watch this one, and I'm sure all you guys down there will keep your eyes on it for the next several days.

Went and read Bastardi to get his comments while composing this post. He offered a couple of interesting ideas concerning implications for Alex and Europe (based on warm water - heh, where have we heard that before???). He also thinks that if anything is in the NW Caribbean by Sunday, it's going to have to be watched. Doesn't like GFS's SE FL scenario, notes ECMWF is farther west and UKMET allows for even a more westerly drift. Basically with all the amplitude in the westerlies, the map should be ripe to conjur up some action. We'll see.

Steve

--------------------
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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Alex Strengthens while TD#2 Finally Falls Apart MikeCAdministrator Thu Aug 05 2004 11:00 AM
. * * Good weekend to do yardwork?? cyclone_head   Sat Aug 07 2004 08:10 AM
. * * Administrative Post - Clarifications Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu Aug 05 2004 10:26 PM
. * * Re: Administrative Post - Clarifications rickonboat   Fri Aug 06 2004 08:42 AM
. * * Clarifications-well put Rick bobbi   Fri Aug 06 2004 09:23 AM
. * * Re: Clarifications-well put Rick cyclone_head   Fri Aug 06 2004 10:50 AM
. * * Re: Clarifications-well put Rick Anonymous   Fri Aug 06 2004 11:00 AM
. * * model runs bobbi   Fri Aug 06 2004 11:21 AM
. * * Re: model runs Hardcore   Fri Aug 06 2004 11:27 AM
. * * Re: Clarifications-well put Rick andy1tom   Fri Aug 06 2004 09:34 AM
. * * still looking for Storm 2 K Anonymous   Fri Aug 06 2004 09:51 AM
. * * Re: still looking for Storm 2 K Steve   Fri Aug 06 2004 10:03 AM
. * * My $.02 LI Phil   Fri Aug 06 2004 10:32 AM
. * * Re: My $.02 James88   Fri Aug 06 2004 10:41 AM
. * * "Now Lets Talk About the Weather" Bobbi   Fri Aug 06 2004 10:37 AM
. * * oh my gosh.. look bobbi   Fri Aug 06 2004 10:40 AM
. * * Re: oh my gosh.. look summercyclone   Fri Aug 06 2004 11:32 AM
. * * locating lows bobbi   Fri Aug 06 2004 11:51 AM
. * * Re: locating lows Anonymous   Fri Aug 06 2004 12:25 PM
. * * Re: locating lows Steve   Fri Aug 06 2004 12:35 PM
. * * Re: locating lows summercyclone   Fri Aug 06 2004 04:51 PM
. * * Re: locating lows Ed in Va   Fri Aug 06 2004 04:54 PM
. * * Re: Subtropical Low? summercyclone   Fri Aug 06 2004 04:59 PM
. * * Re: Subtropical Low? Anonymous   Fri Aug 06 2004 08:25 PM
. * * Re: Subtropical Low? LI Phil   Fri Aug 06 2004 05:01 PM
. * * Re: Subtropical Low? summercyclone   Fri Aug 06 2004 05:04 PM
. * * Re: Subtropical Low? Anonymous   Fri Aug 06 2004 05:09 PM
. * * IWIC 5:00 Forecast LI Phil   Fri Aug 06 2004 05:32 PM
. * * Re: IWIC 5:00 Forecast LoisCane   Fri Aug 06 2004 06:21 PM
. * * shorter/pointed HanKFranK   Fri Aug 06 2004 07:03 PM
. * * Clarifying the Clarification Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Aug 06 2004 08:41 PM
. * * Re: Clarifying the Clarification Steve Hirscshb.   Fri Aug 06 2004 09:12 PM
. * * Thanks ED LI Phil   Fri Aug 06 2004 09:22 PM
. * * Re: Thanks ED GuppieGrouper   Fri Aug 06 2004 10:12 PM
. * * Re: Thanks ED BillD   Fri Aug 06 2004 10:41 PM
. * * Re: Off east coast Anonymous   Fri Aug 06 2004 05:48 PM
. * * Re: XTD2 future doug   Fri Aug 06 2004 01:08 PM
. * * Re: XTD2 future Steve   Fri Aug 06 2004 01:28 PM
. * * Re: XTD2 future summercyclone   Fri Aug 06 2004 02:23 PM
. * * Re: XTD2 future javlin   Fri Aug 06 2004 02:49 PM
. * * Re: XTD2 future Anonymous   Fri Aug 06 2004 02:53 PM
. * * Re: XTD2 future Anonymous   Fri Aug 06 2004 03:08 PM
. * * Re: XTD2 future Anonymous   Fri Aug 06 2004 03:24 PM
. * * Dead Friday... LI Phil   Fri Aug 06 2004 04:04 PM
. * * Re: Dead Friday... Old Sailor   Fri Aug 06 2004 11:21 PM
. * * resurrection saturday? HanKFranK   Sat Aug 07 2004 01:58 AM
. * * Re: resurrection saturday? Old Sailor   Sat Aug 07 2004 05:44 AM
. * * Re: resurrection saturday? javlin   Sat Aug 07 2004 08:12 AM
. * * Re: EX TD2 & 92L Tropics Guy   Sat Aug 07 2004 08:34 AM
. * * Re: EX TD2 & 92L Storm Cooper   Sat Aug 07 2004 09:10 AM
. * * Re: EX TD2 & 92L doug   Sat Aug 07 2004 09:40 AM
. * * Re: EX TD2 & 92L Storm Cooper   Sat Aug 07 2004 10:09 AM
. * * Sattiday mornin' JB LI Phil   Sat Aug 07 2004 11:33 AM
. * * Re: Dead Friday... summercyclone   Fri Aug 06 2004 04:54 PM
. * * Re: Dead Friday... LI Phil   Fri Aug 06 2004 05:00 PM
. * * Re: Dead Friday... bobbi   Fri Aug 06 2004 04:32 PM
. * * Re: South of Jamaica teal61   Fri Aug 06 2004 04:00 PM
. * * Re: South of Jamaica Steve Hirschb.   Fri Aug 06 2004 04:11 PM
. * * Re: South of Jamaica summercyclone   Fri Aug 06 2004 04:56 PM
. * * Re: South of Jamaica teal61   Fri Aug 06 2004 04:43 PM
. * * Re: XTD2 future Anonymous   Fri Aug 06 2004 03:57 PM
. * * Re: XTD2 future javlin   Fri Aug 06 2004 03:07 PM
. * * Re: 92L & shear Tropics Guy   Fri Aug 06 2004 01:51 PM
. * * Re: 92L & shear bobbi   Fri Aug 06 2004 02:00 PM
. * * Re: locating lows/steve's post bobbi   Fri Aug 06 2004 12:45 PM
. * * Re: Dr Gs forecast summercyclone   Fri Aug 06 2004 12:31 PM
. * * Re: El Nino Tropics Guy   Fri Aug 06 2004 10:23 AM
. * * Re: Administrative Post - Clarifications Steve hirschb.   Fri Aug 06 2004 09:19 AM
. * * Storm 2K Anonymous   Fri Aug 06 2004 08:53 AM
. * * Possible Rotation Cocoa Beach   Thu Aug 05 2004 12:34 PM
. * * Re: Possible Rotation Steve hirsch.   Thu Aug 05 2004 12:53 PM
. * * Surprises in the basin bobbi   Thu Aug 05 2004 01:16 PM
. * * Re: Surprises in the basin summercyclone   Thu Aug 05 2004 03:09 PM
. * * okay..calm down.. bobbi   Thu Aug 05 2004 03:19 PM
. * * Re: okay..calm down.. clarification bobbi   Thu Aug 05 2004 03:22 PM
. * * Re: okay..calm down.. clarification Rabbit   Thu Aug 05 2004 03:28 PM
. * * Re: okay..calm down.. clarification Hardcore   Thu Aug 05 2004 03:33 PM
. * * the unclassified Rabbit   Thu Aug 05 2004 03:51 PM
. * * Re: the unclassified ClarkE   Thu Aug 05 2004 06:39 PM
. * * to all the El Niño speculators... Rabbit   Thu Aug 05 2004 04:11 PM
. * * Re: to all the El Niño speculators... Anonymous   Thu Aug 05 2004 04:26 PM
. * * Re: to all the El Niño speculators... Steve   Thu Aug 05 2004 04:47 PM
. * * Re: to all the El Niño speculators... doug   Thu Aug 05 2004 04:55 PM
. * * Re: to all the El Niño speculators... PFSThunder   Thu Aug 05 2004 05:07 PM
. * * 91L Rabbit   Thu Aug 05 2004 05:11 PM
. * * Re: 91L summercyclone   Fri Aug 06 2004 11:11 AM
. * * Re: 91L Anonymous   Thu Aug 05 2004 06:16 PM
. * * Re: 91L jlauderdal   Thu Aug 05 2004 06:57 PM
. * * 92L BugsBunny   Thu Aug 05 2004 06:26 PM
. * * Re: 91L Steve hirschb.   Thu Aug 05 2004 05:20 PM
. * * Re: 91L BugsBunny   Thu Aug 05 2004 05:27 PM
. * * Re: 91L danielwAdministrator   Thu Aug 05 2004 07:22 PM
. * * responses HanKFranK   Thu Aug 05 2004 08:27 PM
. * * Re: 91L danielwAdministrator   Thu Aug 05 2004 08:11 PM
. * * Re: 91L Anonymous   Thu Aug 05 2004 08:20 PM
. * * Re: 91L danielwAdministrator   Thu Aug 05 2004 09:08 PM
. * * Re: 91L javlin   Thu Aug 05 2004 10:46 PM
. * * thoughts for the day LoisCane   Thu Aug 05 2004 11:16 PM
. * * Re: 91L BillD   Thu Aug 05 2004 08:32 PM
. * * Re: 91L Anonymous   Thu Aug 05 2004 08:53 PM
. * * Re: 91L LI Phil   Thu Aug 05 2004 08:40 PM
. * * Re: 91L LoisCane   Thu Aug 05 2004 11:37 PM
. * * Re: Carib. Update danielwAdministrator   Fri Aug 06 2004 01:52 AM
. * * Re: 06Z Tropics Shot danielwAdministrator   Fri Aug 06 2004 02:55 AM
. * * Alex heading for the UK? Rich B   Fri Aug 06 2004 06:21 AM
. * * There is a brief low in atlantic activity Cycloneye   Fri Aug 06 2004 06:24 AM
. * * Re: There is a brief low in atlantic activity Steve hirschb.   Fri Aug 06 2004 07:41 AM
. * * Re: There is a brief low in atlantic activity ticka1   Fri Aug 06 2004 09:07 AM
. * * Another area to watch? WXMAN RICHIE   Thu Aug 05 2004 07:36 PM
. * * Re: Another area to watch? summercyclone   Fri Aug 06 2004 11:14 AM
. * * Re: Another area to watch? andy1tom   Fri Aug 06 2004 12:55 PM
. * * Re: Another area to watch? Storm Cooper   Fri Aug 06 2004 02:09 PM
. * * Re: Alex's sister? summercyclone   Fri Aug 06 2004 02:16 PM
. * * Re: Alex's sister? summercyclone   Fri Aug 06 2004 04:49 PM
. * * Re: Alex's sister? LoisCane   Sun Aug 08 2004 12:49 AM
. * * Re: Alex's sister? caneman   Fri Aug 06 2004 03:06 PM
. * * Re: Another area to watch? Hardcore   Fri Aug 06 2004 01:24 PM
. * * Done LI Phil   Thu Aug 05 2004 05:53 PM
. * * Re: 91L Anonymous   Thu Aug 05 2004 05:18 PM
. * * Re: 91L ErinAndOpal95   Thu Aug 05 2004 05:17 PM
. * * Re: 92L summercyclone   Thu Aug 05 2004 05:03 PM
. * * el nino shmino rickonboat   Thu Aug 05 2004 04:24 PM
. * * Re: okay..calm down.. clarification Robert   Thu Aug 05 2004 03:50 PM
. * * Re: Surprises in the basin Rabbit   Thu Aug 05 2004 01:31 PM
. * * giggling, rofl.. sorry rabbiT bobbi   Thu Aug 05 2004 02:54 PM
. * * ps..question regarding outflow boundaries and inflow bobbi   Thu Aug 05 2004 02:57 PM
. * * Re: ps..question regarding outflow boundaries and inflow Rabbit   Thu Aug 05 2004 02:59 PM
. * * Re: ps..question regarding outflow boundaries and inflow bobbi   Thu Aug 05 2004 03:09 PM
. * * T-numbers up James88   Thu Aug 05 2004 02:24 PM
. * * Re: T-numbers up javlin   Thu Aug 05 2004 02:28 PM
. * * Re: Surprises in the basin javlin   Thu Aug 05 2004 02:23 PM
. * * its over in the caribbean Rabbit   Thu Aug 05 2004 02:42 PM
. * * Re: Surprises in the basin andy1tom   Thu Aug 05 2004 02:37 PM
. * * Re: Surprises in the basin javlin   Thu Aug 05 2004 02:46 PM
. * * Re: Surprises in the basin andy1tom   Thu Aug 05 2004 02:53 PM
. * * Re: Surprises in the basin javlin   Thu Aug 05 2004 03:05 PM
. * * Re: Surprises in the basin summercyclone   Thu Aug 05 2004 03:12 PM
. * * Re: Alex Strengthens while TD#2 Finally Falls Apart EriktheFled   Wed Aug 04 2004 10:04 PM
. * * Re: TD#2 and look to the GOM Old Sailor   Wed Aug 04 2004 10:16 PM
. * * Re: TD#2 and look to the GOM BillD   Wed Aug 04 2004 11:09 PM
. * * Re: TD#2 and look to the GOM javlin   Wed Aug 04 2004 11:22 PM
. * * Re: TD#2 and look to the GOM HanKFranK   Wed Aug 04 2004 11:53 PM
. * * Re: TD#2 and look to the GOM javlin   Thu Aug 05 2004 01:42 AM
. * * Re: XTD2-old model fcst danielwAdministrator   Thu Aug 05 2004 03:33 AM
. * * Re: XTD2-demise danielwAdministrator   Thu Aug 05 2004 05:35 AM
. * * Re: XTD2-demise h2ocean   Thu Aug 05 2004 07:22 AM
. * * Re: XTD2-demise Steve hirsch.   Thu Aug 05 2004 07:44 AM
. * * Re: XTD2-demise Anonymous   Thu Aug 05 2004 09:34 AM
. * * Re: XTD2-demise andy1tom   Thu Aug 05 2004 09:36 AM
. * * Re: XTD2-demise Rabbit   Thu Aug 05 2004 09:45 AM
. * * Re: XTD2-demise andy1tom   Thu Aug 05 2004 09:59 AM
. * * Not Gone, but coming back? ErinAndOpal95   Thu Aug 05 2004 10:44 AM
. * * Re: Not Gone, but coming back? Steve   Thu Aug 05 2004 11:00 AM
. * * Re: Not Gone, but coming back? James88   Thu Aug 05 2004 11:14 AM
. * * Re: Not Gone, but coming back? Rabbit   Thu Aug 05 2004 11:22 AM
. * * Re: Not Gone, but coming back? ErinAndOpal95   Thu Aug 05 2004 11:26 AM
. * * Re: Not Gone, but coming back? Rabbit   Thu Aug 05 2004 11:31 AM
. * * 91L &92L LI Phil   Thu Aug 05 2004 11:43 AM
. * * Re: 91L &92L summercyclone   Thu Aug 05 2004 12:00 PM
. * * Re: Not Gone, but coming back? ErinAndOpal95   Thu Aug 05 2004 11:42 AM
. * * Re: Not Gone, but coming back? Rabbit   Thu Aug 05 2004 11:25 AM
. * * Re: Not Gone, but coming back? Rabbit   Thu Aug 05 2004 10:49 AM
. * * Re: XTD2-demise rickonboat   Thu Aug 05 2004 09:55 AM
. * * Still a CAT 3 James88   Thu Aug 05 2004 05:01 AM
. * * Re: TD#2 and look to the GOM danielwAdministrator   Thu Aug 05 2004 12:32 AM
. * * Re: What's up with the forecast? danielwAdministrator   Thu Aug 05 2004 01:40 AM
. * * Re: TD#2 and look to the GOM javlin   Thu Aug 05 2004 12:24 AM
. * * Re: TD#2 and look to the GOM danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 04 2004 11:41 PM
. * * Re: TD#2 and look to the GOM danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 04 2004 10:49 PM
. * * Re: TD#2 and look to the GOM Tropics Guy   Wed Aug 04 2004 10:58 PM
. * * Alex a CAT 3!!! recmod   Wed Aug 04 2004 09:54 PM
. * * Re: Alex a CAT 3!!! LI Phil   Wed Aug 04 2004 09:58 PM
. * * Re: Alex a CAT 3!!! cyclone_head   Wed Aug 04 2004 10:09 PM
. * * Re: Alex a CAT 3!!! LI Phil   Wed Aug 04 2004 10:59 PM
. * * Re: Alex Strengthens while TD#2 Finally Falls Apart cyclone_head   Wed Aug 04 2004 09:26 PM
. * * Re: Alex Strengthens while TD#2 Finally Falls Apart BillD   Wed Aug 04 2004 10:06 PM
. * * Re: San Juan NEXRAD danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 04 2004 10:14 PM
. * * Re: XTD2 danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 04 2004 09:53 PM
. * * Re: XTD2 jth   Wed Aug 04 2004 10:02 PM
. * * Re: Alex Strengthens while TD#2 Finally Falls Apart Cycloneye   Wed Aug 04 2004 08:13 PM
. * * Re: Alex Strengthens while TD#2 Finally Falls Apart LI Phil   Wed Aug 04 2004 08:47 PM

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