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The 2024 season is officially over after a brutal number of landfals, a stunning rampup in the back-half and a record-early Cat 5.
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Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
to all the El Niño speculators...
      Thu Aug 05 2004 04:11 PM

remember that in 1998, the count by August 5 was 1/0/0, and TD2 (which became Bonnie) didn't even form until Aug 19. In the last week, there have been 2 tds, possibly on the way to a third

here are a few recent examples of late starts in active years:
1996: no August storms until Aug 19 (Dolly)
1998: Bonnie formed Aug 20; Total: 14
1999: Bret formed Aug 20; total: 12
2000: Beryl formed Aug 14; Total: 14
2001: Chantal, the first Cape Verde system, formed Aug 15; Total storms: 15

Also, if an El Niño were in existence, the Eastern Pacific would have had more than four storms by now, and would likely not have gone all of June without so much as a depression; last time that happened was 1969, which also had a late start in the Atlantic:
no TD until July 25
the first hurricane, Blanche, was Aug 11, 8 days after this year
the first major hurricane, Camille, was Aug 15, 10 days after this year

I am by no means predicting a season as active as 1969 or another Camille, but the evidence points to an active season, not a quiet one.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Alex Strengthens while TD#2 Finally Falls Apart MikeCAdministrator Thu Aug 05 2004 04:11 PM
. * * Good weekend to do yardwork?? cyclone_head   Sat Aug 07 2004 08:10 AM
. * * Administrative Post - Clarifications Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu Aug 05 2004 10:26 PM
. * * Re: Administrative Post - Clarifications rickonboat   Fri Aug 06 2004 08:42 AM
. * * Clarifications-well put Rick bobbi   Fri Aug 06 2004 09:23 AM
. * * Re: Clarifications-well put Rick cyclone_head   Fri Aug 06 2004 10:50 AM
. * * Re: Clarifications-well put Rick Anonymous   Fri Aug 06 2004 11:00 AM
. * * model runs bobbi   Fri Aug 06 2004 11:21 AM
. * * Re: model runs Hardcore   Fri Aug 06 2004 11:27 AM
. * * Re: Clarifications-well put Rick andy1tom   Fri Aug 06 2004 09:34 AM
. * * still looking for Storm 2 K Anonymous   Fri Aug 06 2004 09:51 AM
. * * Re: still looking for Storm 2 K Steve   Fri Aug 06 2004 10:03 AM
. * * My $.02 LI Phil   Fri Aug 06 2004 10:32 AM
. * * Re: My $.02 James88   Fri Aug 06 2004 10:41 AM
. * * "Now Lets Talk About the Weather" Bobbi   Fri Aug 06 2004 10:37 AM
. * * oh my gosh.. look bobbi   Fri Aug 06 2004 10:40 AM
. * * Re: oh my gosh.. look summercyclone   Fri Aug 06 2004 11:32 AM
. * * locating lows bobbi   Fri Aug 06 2004 11:51 AM
. * * Re: locating lows Anonymous   Fri Aug 06 2004 12:25 PM
. * * Re: locating lows Steve   Fri Aug 06 2004 12:35 PM
. * * Re: locating lows summercyclone   Fri Aug 06 2004 04:51 PM
. * * Re: locating lows Ed in Va   Fri Aug 06 2004 04:54 PM
. * * Re: Subtropical Low? summercyclone   Fri Aug 06 2004 04:59 PM
. * * Re: Subtropical Low? Anonymous   Fri Aug 06 2004 08:25 PM
. * * Re: Subtropical Low? LI Phil   Fri Aug 06 2004 05:01 PM
. * * Re: Subtropical Low? summercyclone   Fri Aug 06 2004 05:04 PM
. * * Re: Subtropical Low? Anonymous   Fri Aug 06 2004 05:09 PM
. * * IWIC 5:00 Forecast LI Phil   Fri Aug 06 2004 05:32 PM
. * * Re: IWIC 5:00 Forecast LoisCane   Fri Aug 06 2004 06:21 PM
. * * shorter/pointed HanKFranK   Fri Aug 06 2004 07:03 PM
. * * Clarifying the Clarification Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Aug 06 2004 08:41 PM
. * * Re: Clarifying the Clarification Steve Hirscshb.   Fri Aug 06 2004 09:12 PM
. * * Thanks ED LI Phil   Fri Aug 06 2004 09:22 PM
. * * Re: Thanks ED GuppieGrouper   Fri Aug 06 2004 10:12 PM
. * * Re: Thanks ED BillD   Fri Aug 06 2004 10:41 PM
. * * Re: Off east coast Anonymous   Fri Aug 06 2004 05:48 PM
. * * Re: XTD2 future doug   Fri Aug 06 2004 01:08 PM
. * * Re: XTD2 future Steve   Fri Aug 06 2004 01:28 PM
. * * Re: XTD2 future summercyclone   Fri Aug 06 2004 02:23 PM
. * * Re: XTD2 future javlin   Fri Aug 06 2004 02:49 PM
. * * Re: XTD2 future Anonymous   Fri Aug 06 2004 02:53 PM
. * * Re: XTD2 future Anonymous   Fri Aug 06 2004 03:08 PM
. * * Re: XTD2 future Anonymous   Fri Aug 06 2004 03:24 PM
. * * Dead Friday... LI Phil   Fri Aug 06 2004 04:04 PM
. * * Re: Dead Friday... Old Sailor   Fri Aug 06 2004 11:21 PM
. * * resurrection saturday? HanKFranK   Sat Aug 07 2004 01:58 AM
. * * Re: resurrection saturday? Old Sailor   Sat Aug 07 2004 05:44 AM
. * * Re: resurrection saturday? javlin   Sat Aug 07 2004 08:12 AM
. * * Re: EX TD2 & 92L Tropics Guy   Sat Aug 07 2004 08:34 AM
. * * Re: EX TD2 & 92L Storm Cooper   Sat Aug 07 2004 09:10 AM
. * * Re: EX TD2 & 92L doug   Sat Aug 07 2004 09:40 AM
. * * Re: EX TD2 & 92L Storm Cooper   Sat Aug 07 2004 10:09 AM
. * * Sattiday mornin' JB LI Phil   Sat Aug 07 2004 11:33 AM
. * * Re: Dead Friday... summercyclone   Fri Aug 06 2004 04:54 PM
. * * Re: Dead Friday... LI Phil   Fri Aug 06 2004 05:00 PM
. * * Re: Dead Friday... bobbi   Fri Aug 06 2004 04:32 PM
. * * Re: South of Jamaica teal61   Fri Aug 06 2004 04:00 PM
. * * Re: South of Jamaica Steve Hirschb.   Fri Aug 06 2004 04:11 PM
. * * Re: South of Jamaica summercyclone   Fri Aug 06 2004 04:56 PM
. * * Re: South of Jamaica teal61   Fri Aug 06 2004 04:43 PM
. * * Re: XTD2 future Anonymous   Fri Aug 06 2004 03:57 PM
. * * Re: XTD2 future javlin   Fri Aug 06 2004 03:07 PM
. * * Re: 92L & shear Tropics Guy   Fri Aug 06 2004 01:51 PM
. * * Re: 92L & shear bobbi   Fri Aug 06 2004 02:00 PM
. * * Re: locating lows/steve's post bobbi   Fri Aug 06 2004 12:45 PM
. * * Re: Dr Gs forecast summercyclone   Fri Aug 06 2004 12:31 PM
. * * Re: El Nino Tropics Guy   Fri Aug 06 2004 10:23 AM
. * * Re: Administrative Post - Clarifications Steve hirschb.   Fri Aug 06 2004 09:19 AM
. * * Storm 2K Anonymous   Fri Aug 06 2004 08:53 AM
. * * Possible Rotation Cocoa Beach   Thu Aug 05 2004 12:34 PM
. * * Re: Possible Rotation Steve hirsch.   Thu Aug 05 2004 12:53 PM
. * * Surprises in the basin bobbi   Thu Aug 05 2004 01:16 PM
. * * Re: Surprises in the basin summercyclone   Thu Aug 05 2004 03:09 PM
. * * okay..calm down.. bobbi   Thu Aug 05 2004 03:19 PM
. * * Re: okay..calm down.. clarification bobbi   Thu Aug 05 2004 03:22 PM
. * * Re: okay..calm down.. clarification Rabbit   Thu Aug 05 2004 03:28 PM
. * * Re: okay..calm down.. clarification Hardcore   Thu Aug 05 2004 03:33 PM
. * * the unclassified Rabbit   Thu Aug 05 2004 03:51 PM
. * * Re: the unclassified ClarkE   Thu Aug 05 2004 06:39 PM
. * * to all the El Niño speculators... Rabbit   Thu Aug 05 2004 04:11 PM
. * * Re: to all the El Niño speculators... Anonymous   Thu Aug 05 2004 04:26 PM
. * * Re: to all the El Niño speculators... Steve   Thu Aug 05 2004 04:47 PM
. * * Re: to all the El Niño speculators... doug   Thu Aug 05 2004 04:55 PM
. * * Re: to all the El Niño speculators... PFSThunder   Thu Aug 05 2004 05:07 PM
. * * 91L Rabbit   Thu Aug 05 2004 05:11 PM
. * * Re: 91L summercyclone   Fri Aug 06 2004 11:11 AM
. * * Re: 91L Anonymous   Thu Aug 05 2004 06:16 PM
. * * Re: 91L jlauderdal   Thu Aug 05 2004 06:57 PM
. * * 92L BugsBunny   Thu Aug 05 2004 06:26 PM
. * * Re: 91L Steve hirschb.   Thu Aug 05 2004 05:20 PM
. * * Re: 91L BugsBunny   Thu Aug 05 2004 05:27 PM
. * * Re: 91L danielwAdministrator   Thu Aug 05 2004 07:22 PM
. * * responses HanKFranK   Thu Aug 05 2004 08:27 PM
. * * Re: 91L danielwAdministrator   Thu Aug 05 2004 08:11 PM
. * * Re: 91L Anonymous   Thu Aug 05 2004 08:20 PM
. * * Re: 91L danielwAdministrator   Thu Aug 05 2004 09:08 PM
. * * Re: 91L javlin   Thu Aug 05 2004 10:46 PM
. * * thoughts for the day LoisCane   Thu Aug 05 2004 11:16 PM
. * * Re: 91L BillD   Thu Aug 05 2004 08:32 PM
. * * Re: 91L Anonymous   Thu Aug 05 2004 08:53 PM
. * * Re: 91L LI Phil   Thu Aug 05 2004 08:40 PM
. * * Re: 91L LoisCane   Thu Aug 05 2004 11:37 PM
. * * Re: Carib. Update danielwAdministrator   Fri Aug 06 2004 01:52 AM
. * * Re: 06Z Tropics Shot danielwAdministrator   Fri Aug 06 2004 02:55 AM
. * * Alex heading for the UK? Rich B   Fri Aug 06 2004 06:21 AM
. * * There is a brief low in atlantic activity Cycloneye   Fri Aug 06 2004 06:24 AM
. * * Re: There is a brief low in atlantic activity Steve hirschb.   Fri Aug 06 2004 07:41 AM
. * * Re: There is a brief low in atlantic activity ticka1   Fri Aug 06 2004 09:07 AM
. * * Another area to watch? WXMAN RICHIE   Thu Aug 05 2004 07:36 PM
. * * Re: Another area to watch? summercyclone   Fri Aug 06 2004 11:14 AM
. * * Re: Another area to watch? andy1tom   Fri Aug 06 2004 12:55 PM
. * * Re: Another area to watch? Storm Cooper   Fri Aug 06 2004 02:09 PM
. * * Re: Alex's sister? summercyclone   Fri Aug 06 2004 02:16 PM
. * * Re: Alex's sister? summercyclone   Fri Aug 06 2004 04:49 PM
. * * Re: Alex's sister? LoisCane   Sun Aug 08 2004 12:49 AM
. * * Re: Alex's sister? caneman   Fri Aug 06 2004 03:06 PM
. * * Re: Another area to watch? Hardcore   Fri Aug 06 2004 01:24 PM
. * * Done LI Phil   Thu Aug 05 2004 05:53 PM
. * * Re: 91L Anonymous   Thu Aug 05 2004 05:18 PM
. * * Re: 91L ErinAndOpal95   Thu Aug 05 2004 05:17 PM
. * * Re: 92L summercyclone   Thu Aug 05 2004 05:03 PM
. * * el nino shmino rickonboat   Thu Aug 05 2004 04:24 PM
. * * Re: okay..calm down.. clarification Robert   Thu Aug 05 2004 03:50 PM
. * * Re: Surprises in the basin Rabbit   Thu Aug 05 2004 01:31 PM
. * * giggling, rofl.. sorry rabbiT bobbi   Thu Aug 05 2004 02:54 PM
. * * ps..question regarding outflow boundaries and inflow bobbi   Thu Aug 05 2004 02:57 PM
. * * Re: ps..question regarding outflow boundaries and inflow Rabbit   Thu Aug 05 2004 02:59 PM
. * * Re: ps..question regarding outflow boundaries and inflow bobbi   Thu Aug 05 2004 03:09 PM
. * * T-numbers up James88   Thu Aug 05 2004 02:24 PM
. * * Re: T-numbers up javlin   Thu Aug 05 2004 02:28 PM
. * * Re: Surprises in the basin javlin   Thu Aug 05 2004 02:23 PM
. * * its over in the caribbean Rabbit   Thu Aug 05 2004 02:42 PM
. * * Re: Surprises in the basin andy1tom   Thu Aug 05 2004 02:37 PM
. * * Re: Surprises in the basin javlin   Thu Aug 05 2004 02:46 PM
. * * Re: Surprises in the basin andy1tom   Thu Aug 05 2004 02:53 PM
. * * Re: Surprises in the basin javlin   Thu Aug 05 2004 03:05 PM
. * * Re: Surprises in the basin summercyclone   Thu Aug 05 2004 03:12 PM
. * * Re: Alex Strengthens while TD#2 Finally Falls Apart EriktheFled   Wed Aug 04 2004 10:04 PM
. * * Re: TD#2 and look to the GOM Old Sailor   Wed Aug 04 2004 10:16 PM
. * * Re: TD#2 and look to the GOM BillD   Wed Aug 04 2004 11:09 PM
. * * Re: TD#2 and look to the GOM javlin   Wed Aug 04 2004 11:22 PM
. * * Re: TD#2 and look to the GOM HanKFranK   Wed Aug 04 2004 11:53 PM
. * * Re: TD#2 and look to the GOM javlin   Thu Aug 05 2004 01:42 AM
. * * Re: XTD2-old model fcst danielwAdministrator   Thu Aug 05 2004 03:33 AM
. * * Re: XTD2-demise danielwAdministrator   Thu Aug 05 2004 05:35 AM
. * * Re: XTD2-demise h2ocean   Thu Aug 05 2004 07:22 AM
. * * Re: XTD2-demise Steve hirsch.   Thu Aug 05 2004 07:44 AM
. * * Re: XTD2-demise Anonymous   Thu Aug 05 2004 09:34 AM
. * * Re: XTD2-demise andy1tom   Thu Aug 05 2004 09:36 AM
. * * Re: XTD2-demise Rabbit   Thu Aug 05 2004 09:45 AM
. * * Re: XTD2-demise andy1tom   Thu Aug 05 2004 09:59 AM
. * * Not Gone, but coming back? ErinAndOpal95   Thu Aug 05 2004 10:44 AM
. * * Re: Not Gone, but coming back? Steve   Thu Aug 05 2004 11:00 AM
. * * Re: Not Gone, but coming back? James88   Thu Aug 05 2004 11:14 AM
. * * Re: Not Gone, but coming back? Rabbit   Thu Aug 05 2004 11:22 AM
. * * Re: Not Gone, but coming back? ErinAndOpal95   Thu Aug 05 2004 11:26 AM
. * * Re: Not Gone, but coming back? Rabbit   Thu Aug 05 2004 11:31 AM
. * * 91L &92L LI Phil   Thu Aug 05 2004 11:43 AM
. * * Re: 91L &92L summercyclone   Thu Aug 05 2004 12:00 PM
. * * Re: Not Gone, but coming back? ErinAndOpal95   Thu Aug 05 2004 11:42 AM
. * * Re: Not Gone, but coming back? Rabbit   Thu Aug 05 2004 11:25 AM
. * * Re: Not Gone, but coming back? Rabbit   Thu Aug 05 2004 10:49 AM
. * * Re: XTD2-demise rickonboat   Thu Aug 05 2004 09:55 AM
. * * Still a CAT 3 James88   Thu Aug 05 2004 05:01 AM
. * * Re: TD#2 and look to the GOM danielwAdministrator   Thu Aug 05 2004 12:32 AM
. * * Re: What's up with the forecast? danielwAdministrator   Thu Aug 05 2004 01:40 AM
. * * Re: TD#2 and look to the GOM javlin   Thu Aug 05 2004 12:24 AM
. * * Re: TD#2 and look to the GOM danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 04 2004 11:41 PM
. * * Re: TD#2 and look to the GOM danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 04 2004 10:49 PM
. * * Re: TD#2 and look to the GOM Tropics Guy   Wed Aug 04 2004 10:58 PM
. * * Alex a CAT 3!!! recmod   Wed Aug 04 2004 09:54 PM
. * * Re: Alex a CAT 3!!! LI Phil   Wed Aug 04 2004 09:58 PM
. * * Re: Alex a CAT 3!!! cyclone_head   Wed Aug 04 2004 10:09 PM
. * * Re: Alex a CAT 3!!! LI Phil   Wed Aug 04 2004 10:59 PM
. * * Re: Alex Strengthens while TD#2 Finally Falls Apart cyclone_head   Wed Aug 04 2004 09:26 PM
. * * Re: Alex Strengthens while TD#2 Finally Falls Apart BillD   Wed Aug 04 2004 10:06 PM
. * * Re: San Juan NEXRAD danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 04 2004 10:14 PM
. * * Re: XTD2 danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 04 2004 09:53 PM
. * * Re: XTD2 jth   Wed Aug 04 2004 10:02 PM
. * * Re: Alex Strengthens while TD#2 Finally Falls Apart Cycloneye   Wed Aug 04 2004 08:13 PM
. * * Re: Alex Strengthens while TD#2 Finally Falls Apart LI Phil   Wed Aug 04 2004 08:47 PM

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