Alex Strengthens while TD#2 Finally Falls Apart

Here's Rob & Jason's forecast:

IWIC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - 06 August 2004 - 5:00 PM EDT

The remnant of Tropical Depression 2 has shown no signs of change within the past 36 hours. Upper level 30-35 knot southwest winds are blowing over the system, which is preventing organization. An upper level low to the west of the tropical wave is slowly retrogading southwest, and this will allow for upper level winds to become marginally favorable for slow organization over the next few days. A TPC reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the area of disturbed weather tomorrow afternoon, if necessary.

Both the global model consensus and the tropical model suite are contuining to indicate a more westward track. The overall consensus is for the wave to push west-northwest, over the Yucatan peninsula within 48-72 hours, just prior to emerging into the central/western Gulf. This is in harmony with The ridging behind a cold front in the central/eastern United States. The low level steering flow in the Gulf and western Caribbean are being controlled by these elements. Over the next five days, the ridge will push eastward, and the cold front near the Texas coast will shift north as a warm front. Thefore, a southeast flow will likely be present once the wave enters the central Gulf. This could act as a steering mechanism and push the wave into either Texas or central/northern Mexico. But all residents along the Gulf Coast should continue to monitor the progress of the feature, as it is still several days away from entering the region. Development, if any, is expected to be very slow to occur. Morever, even if development does not occur, heavy rains are possible depending on how much moisture is drawn northward.

Elsewhere, INVEST 92L is still being monitored for development in the central Atlantic. There are no signs of development at this time. Convection has been very sporadic and disorganized. The main culprit is southwest shear, and there are no signs of it retreating in the near future. No development is expected at this time.

Another tropical wave located near 35ºW, 10ºN has shown no signs of development. The quick forward motion of waves in the central and eastern Atlantic continue to be the main parameter that is inhibiting to development. The North Atlantic Oscillation will tank over the next couple weeks. As a result, the subtropical ridge will weaken....along with the low level steering flow. The UKMET does slowly strengthen the wave over the next 5 days but it is a model outlier at this time.

There are no other areas of interest at this time.

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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

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