Why do they base their fcsts on 1800Z surface data?
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT 07 AUG 2004
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES... POORLY-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED JUST W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 27W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. POSITION IS BASED ON LONG-TERM SATELLITE LOOPS. THIS IS A RELATIVELY WEAK WAVE WITH LITTLE SURFACE REFLECTION NOTED IN SURFACE DATA OR THE GFS MODEL... THOUGH THE LATTER SHOWS WEAK TURNING AT 700 MB IN THE AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 8N-13N.
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1100 NM E OF BARBADOS ALONG 42W/43W S OF 16N MOVING W 20-25 KT. WAVE IS RAPIDLY MOVING WESTWARD WITH A STRONG 700 MB JET TO THE N. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE WAVE HAS A BROAD CIRCULATION ELONGATED W-E ALONG 9N AND AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRRUS PATTERN. DRY AIR/AFRICAN DUST IS LOCATED NEAR AND TO THE N BETWEEN 35W-50W... SOMEWHAT LIMITING TSTM FORMATION. HOWEVER WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS DOT THE WAVE FROM 10N-13.5N BETWEEN 45W-51W ENHANCED WITH SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THE GFS INDICATES THAT THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE WAVE WILL AFFECT THE WINDWARD ISLANDS OVERNIGHT MON WITH THE MAIN WAVE AXIS CROSSING 60W AROUND MIDDAY MON.
TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 61W/62W S OF 20N MOVING W 15-20 KT. TSTMS BLEW UP NEAR THE WAVE AXIS THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAVE DIMINISHED IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE WAVE IS NOT WELL-DEFINED BUT CAN BE SEEN IN HOVMOELLER PLOTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 12.5N E OF 65W.
W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE...THE REMNANTS OF T.D. TWO...IS ALONG 82W S OF 21N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE HAS WEAKENED WITH A LESS PRONOUNCED WIND SHIFT THAN YESTERDAY AND AN ELONGATED APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE. INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE LIKELY FOR THE YUCATAN AND BELIZE LATE SUN INTO MON. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN W JAMAICA AND 82W. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/NHC/TWDAT.0408072355
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