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Unseasonably stout wave in Caribbean bringing enhanced showers and tstorms for several days, but lacks model support for development 5/26

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 275 (Idalia) , Major: 275 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 275 (Idalia) Major: 275 (Idalia)

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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

LI Phil
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)

Post from scottsvb
Mon Aug 09 2004 06:59 PM

scottsvb posted this on the previous thread, but it has some good commentary, so I'll repost it here...

TD 3 as everyone knows has formed today and is the major feature of the moment. TD3 actually has a llc for the last 2 days but was part of the itcz and didnt have the TS around or near the center. Finally today after the system got better organized and land obs this was upgraded. Pressure is still high but will slowly fall as it has very good enviroment around it. The pressures are generally high for this time of year in the eastern carribean sea. I expect the system to become better organized slowly and become a T.S in next day or so. When the system gets w of 70W i expect it to begin a more generaly strengthning faze as it will slow down some and surrounding pressures will be slightly lower then the 1014-15 in the islands (outside of TD3). I expect this to become a hurricane after it passes Jamaica on Thursday. Probably the evening. Another trough will be pushing into the eastern U.S. after 96hours from now. How far down it digs and the placement of where the current TD3 will be will determine the weekend movement of the hurricane. Best scenerio right now is it to move into the se Gulf and up florida or across. Some think it might stay alittle more s and move into the Yucitan chaneel drift and move w towards Texas or Mexico when the trough moves out later Monday into Tuesday. Looks like Friday and Saturday we will have a idea. System should gradually get stronger till the weekend.
System in the Southern gulf is a tight compact system. Had great radar from Mexico last night into today. The system could be classified when recon checks this out today and might find TS winds. Pressures are high though and this should get absorbed into the eastern U.S trough and move NE across Fl Panhandle or Big Bend area. I dont expect this to be a strong Tropical Storm if it even gets classified at all.

scottsvb

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Tropical Depression 3 Forms in East Caribbean	MikeC	Mon Aug 09 2004 06:59 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 3 Forms in East Caribbean	Hardcore	Mon Aug 09 2004 06:49 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 3 Forms in East Caribbean	BugsBunny	Mon Aug 09 2004 06:50 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 3 Forms in East Caribbean	Anonymous	Mon Aug 09 2004 06:57 PM
Post from scottsvb	LI Phil	Mon Aug 09 2004 06:59 PM
Re: Post from scottsvb	andy1tom	Mon Aug 09 2004 07:08 PM
Re: Post from scottsvb	James88	Mon Aug 09 2004 07:05 PM
Re: Post from scottsvb	andy1tom	Mon Aug 09 2004 07:11 PM
Bonnie & Chuck	LI Phil	Mon Aug 09 2004 07:13 PM
Re: Bonnie & Charlie	bobbi	Mon Aug 09 2004 07:38 PM
can anyone decode?	Anonymous	Mon Aug 09 2004 07:46 PM
Re: can anyone decode?	Anonymous	Mon Aug 09 2004 07:48 PM
Re: can anyone decode?	James88	Mon Aug 09 2004 07:50 PM
Re: can anyone decode?	SirCane	Mon Aug 09 2004 07:55 PM
Re: can anyone decode?	Joe	Mon Aug 09 2004 08:04 PM
Re: can anyone decode?	Joe	Mon Aug 09 2004 08:08 PM
Re: can anyone decode?	BillD	Mon Aug 09 2004 08:29 PM
Re: Bonnie forms in the Gulf---1st advisory at 5pm---45 kts	Anonymous	Mon Aug 09 2004 08:10 PM
Re: Bonnie forms in the Gulf---1st advisory at 5pm---45 mph	Anonymous	Mon Aug 09 2004 08:11 PM
Vortex MSG	teal61	Mon Aug 09 2004 08:22 PM
Re: Vortex MSG	andy1tom	Mon Aug 09 2004 08:29 PM
Re: Vortex MSG	Jamiewx	Mon Aug 09 2004 08:24 PM
Re: Vortex MSG	Anonymous	Mon Aug 09 2004 09:11 PM
Re: Recon info here...	teal61	Mon Aug 09 2004 08:30 PM
Finally a TS in the GOM ... whew	Frank P	Mon Aug 09 2004 08:38 PM
Re: Finally a TS in the GOM ... whew	Hurric	Mon Aug 09 2004 08:47 PM
charlie should be wide left if you ask me	bobbi	Mon Aug 09 2004 09:11 PM
meant right..	bobbi	Mon Aug 09 2004 09:55 PM
Re: meant right..	Ed Dunham	Mon Aug 09 2004 11:06 PM
Re: meant right..	LoisCane	Tue Aug 10 2004 12:18 AM
NWS Forcast	Cocoa Beach	Tue Aug 10 2004 12:41 AM
Re: NWS Forcast	Anonymous	Thu Aug 12 2004 03:10 PM
Re: NWS Forcast	Anonymous	Thu Aug 12 2004 05:28 PM
Re: meant right..	Steve Hirschb.	Mon Aug 09 2004 10:44 PM
Re: Finally a TS in the GOM ... whew	LI Phil	Mon Aug 09 2004 08:43 PM
Re: Finally a TS in the GOM ... whew	doug	Mon Aug 09 2004 08:47 PM
track of bonnie	Anonymous	Mon Aug 09 2004 08:54 PM
Re: track of bonnie	James88	Mon Aug 09 2004 08:58 PM
Re: track of bonnie	jth	Mon Aug 09 2004 08:56 PM
Re: track of bonnie	andy1tom	Mon Aug 09 2004 09:02 PM
Somebody had to do it...	Steve	Mon Aug 09 2004 09:00 PM
thank you steve	bobbi	Mon Aug 09 2004 09:21 PM
Re: Somebody had to do it...	LI Phil	Mon Aug 09 2004 09:02 PM
Re: Somebody had to do it...	Steve	Mon Aug 09 2004 09:12 PM
Re: Somebody had to do it...	LI Phil	Mon Aug 09 2004 09:14 PM
Re: Somebody had to do it...	Clark	Mon Aug 09 2004 09:27 PM
Re: Somebody had to do it...	andy1tom	Mon Aug 09 2004 09:10 PM
Re: Somebody had to do it...	Frank P	Mon Aug 09 2004 09:10 PM
Re: Somebody had to do it...	Rasvar	Mon Aug 09 2004 09:15 PM
Re: Somebody had to do it...	javlin	Mon Aug 09 2004 09:37 PM
Re: Somebody had to do it...	scottsvb1	Mon Aug 09 2004 09:29 PM
Re: Somebody had to do it...	Rich B	Mon Aug 09 2004 09:24 PM
Re: Somebody had to do it...	Frank P	Mon Aug 09 2004 09:24 PM
Re: Somebody had to do it...	Kal	Mon Aug 09 2004 09:23 PM
Re: Somebody had to do it...	LI Phil	Mon Aug 09 2004 09:25 PM
Re: Somebody had to do it...	Kal	Mon Aug 09 2004 09:28 PM
Re: Somebody had to do it...	bobbi	Mon Aug 09 2004 09:28 PM
Re: Somebody had to do it...	Steve	Mon Aug 09 2004 09:20 PM
The Challenge is back on...with a twist	LI Phil	Mon Aug 09 2004 09:12 PM
Re: Somebody had to do it...	Steve hirschb.	Mon Aug 09 2004 09:09 PM
Surface wind calculation	Jamiewx	Mon Aug 09 2004 09:13 PM
Re: Surface wind calculation	Steve	Mon Aug 09 2004 09:14 PM
Re: Somebody had to do it...	James88	Mon Aug 09 2004 09:02 PM
how to cook crow	Frank P	Mon Aug 09 2004 08:47 PM
Re: Finally a TS in the GOM ... whew	James88	Mon Aug 09 2004 08:46 PM
Re: Finally a TS in the GOM ... whew	Anonymous	Mon Aug 09 2004 09:13 PM
re: bonnie prince charles--& famous C tracks	bobbi	Mon Aug 09 2004 09:24 PM
Re: Recon info here...	James88	Mon Aug 09 2004 08:36 PM
cat 2 and cat 4-5	rickonboat	Mon Aug 09 2004 08:03 PM
low over land	Anonymous	Mon Aug 09 2004 08:34 PM
Wunderground	LI Phil	Mon Aug 09 2004 08:35 PM
Re: Bonnie	Anonymous	Mon Aug 09 2004 08:37 PM
Re: Bonnie	Anonymous	Mon Aug 09 2004 08:42 PM
bonnie!!!!!!	Anonymous	Mon Aug 09 2004 08:35 PM
winds at surface?	Anonymous	Mon Aug 09 2004 08:01 PM
Re: can anyone decode?	Anonymous	Mon Aug 09 2004 07:55 PM
found cir in xtd2	Anonymous	Mon Aug 09 2004 07:35 PM
TD 3-impressive	Kevin	Mon Aug 09 2004 07:43 PM
Re: TD 3-impressive	SirCane	Mon Aug 09 2004 07:49 PM
Re: found cir in xtd2	jth	Mon Aug 09 2004 07:41 PM
Re: Post from scottsvb	scottsvb1	Mon Aug 09 2004 07:09 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 3 Forms in East Caribbean	LI Phil	Mon Aug 09 2004 06:48 PM

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