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The broad Gulf area is now up to 70/70% for development while the Atlantic area is 10/30% for development. Neither are marked as an invest area yet, but the Gulf may be tagged later today. Texas should watch the Gulf area for a large rain event. Atlantic is FL through the Carolinas depending on how soon (if at all) the system develops, sooner implies further north.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 292 (Idalia) , Major: 292 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 292 (Idalia) Major: 292 (Idalia)
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News Talkback >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback
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Anonymous
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Re: Random replies
      Fri Aug 09 2002 09:25 AM

Interesting discourse there guys, and I agree. What I don't agree with is Dr. Gray's revised forecast nor NOAA's revisions which came out immediately following Gray's as if somehow his reduction in the number of storms demanded a similar response from the NOAA. If indeed the season's activity is already 1/3 or 3/7 complete, it's going to be "mostly" a pretty boring storm season. 9 named storms? 7-10 named storms? How can this be? Oh yeah - it's the MODERATE EL NINO! Well I don't see it. I check out the SST anomolies every day, and to my untrained eye, there's hardly a menacing El Nino out there to stunt the growth of or shear storms this year.

Anyway it's apparent to me that we're going to have some excitement on this side of the Atlantic no matter how many storms eventually become classified. I'm glad Ed mentioned 10/46, because the first site I went to after I checked on some Saints news, was the Goes 8. There is a tiny bit of convection near 10-50 (wave extending north of 20) which looks quite a bit like the blow-up we saw yesterday north of PR did a few days ago.

This is what I can see on the WV and IR this morning: There is convection @ 21/80 just east of the nose end of the trof south of Cuba which appears to be a tropical wave sandwiched between an ULL centered over Haiti to the east and a splitting trof to the NW. There also appears to be mid-level circulation around 78/24 (northern and central Bahamas) being aided by some upper divergence which seems to be some energy left over from the front and/or Christobal. That environment looks fairly hostile and confused right now, but most of the tropical energy seems to be in a box between 15, 25, 75 and 85. It's anyone's guess as to whether conditions become more favorable in the next 2-4 days down there, but that's where the energy is right now. And if something was to form in our hemisphere in the near-term, it's going to be from some of this energy. Things should be apparent (one way or the other) by Sunday.

Steve

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* The Return of Bertha CFHCAdministrator Fri Aug 09 2002 09:25 AM
. * * Re: The Return of Bertha atlantic swirl   Mon Aug 12 2002 01:29 AM
. * * Re: The Return of Bertha squirralee   Mon Aug 12 2002 05:16 PM
. * * Re: The Return of Bertha Larry   Mon Aug 12 2002 05:50 PM
. * * atlantic swirl Anonymous (HF)   Mon Aug 12 2002 02:37 AM
. * * atlantic swirl 2 Anonymous (HF)   Mon Aug 12 2002 02:44 AM
. * * atlantic swirl 3 Anonymous (HF)   Mon Aug 12 2002 03:49 AM
. * * Re: atlantic swirl 3 Jason M   Mon Aug 12 2002 04:14 AM
. * * Re: atlantic swirl 3 Rich B   Mon Aug 12 2002 07:35 AM
. * * Re: atlantic swirl 3 Anonymous Kimmie   Mon Aug 12 2002 02:35 PM
. * * Re: atlantic swirl 3 jth   Mon Aug 12 2002 02:43 PM
. * * 90L.. invest 11 Anonymous (HF)   Mon Aug 12 2002 03:17 PM
. * * Re: 90L.. invest 11 Anonymous   Mon Aug 12 2002 06:52 PM
. * * 42w Anonymous (HF)   Mon Aug 12 2002 07:09 PM
. * * Re: 90L.. invest 11 Anonymous   Mon Aug 12 2002 04:11 PM
. * * Re: The Return of Bertha Anonymous   Sun Aug 11 2002 08:42 PM
. * * Re: The Return of Bertha Anonymous   Mon Aug 12 2002 10:05 PM
. * * Three areas of concern in the Atl. Kevin   Mon Aug 12 2002 11:03 PM
. * * Re: Three areas of concern in the Atl. Anonymous   Mon Aug 12 2002 11:20 PM
. * * 90L Anonymous (HF)   Tue Aug 13 2002 12:41 AM
. * * Updated Discussion Including Thoughts on Rest of Season Jason M   Tue Aug 13 2002 01:43 AM
. * * Re: The Return of Bertha garyb   Mon Aug 12 2002 05:54 PM
. * * Re: The Return of Bertha Anonymous-doug   Mon Aug 12 2002 06:21 PM
. * * Re: The Return of Bertha Anonymous   Mon Aug 12 2002 07:06 PM
. * * Re: The Return of Bertha Anonymous-doug   Mon Aug 12 2002 02:11 PM
. * * Re: The Return of Bertha Anonymous   Sun Aug 11 2002 02:06 AM
. * * Re: The Return of Bertha ShawnS   Sun Aug 11 2002 02:16 AM
. * * Re: The Return of Bertha Anonymous   Sat Aug 10 2002 09:11 PM
. * * North of PR looks very interesting...... SirCane   Thu Aug 08 2002 03:46 PM
. * * Hey Sir... Steve   Thu Aug 08 2002 03:55 PM
. * * North of PR? Anonymous   Thu Aug 08 2002 04:08 PM
. * * Cane Man Anonymous   Thu Aug 08 2002 02:47 PM
. * * Musings... Steve   Thu Aug 08 2002 03:09 PM
. * * Re: Musings... ShawnS   Thu Aug 08 2002 03:15 PM
. * * Re: Musings... Anonymous   Thu Aug 08 2002 03:51 PM
. * * Re: Musings... ShawnS   Thu Aug 08 2002 04:19 PM
. * * Re: Cane Man Anonymous   Thu Aug 08 2002 02:58 PM
. * * Re: The Return of Bertha Alan   Thu Aug 08 2002 01:47 PM
. * * Tropical Discussions Updated Jason M   Mon Aug 12 2002 01:27 AM
. * * Re: The Return of Bertha caneman   Thu Aug 08 2002 01:53 PM
. * * Re: The Return of Bertha Rickoshade   Thu Aug 08 2002 02:06 PM
. * * Re: The Return of Bertha Anonymous   Thu Aug 08 2002 01:28 PM
. * * Re: The Return of Bertha caneman   Thu Aug 08 2002 01:37 PM
. * * Re: The Return of Bertha ShawnS   Thu Aug 08 2002 01:34 PM
. * * Re: The Return of Bertha Caneman   Thu Aug 08 2002 01:43 PM
. * * Re: The Return of Bertha ShawnS   Thu Aug 08 2002 01:52 PM
. * * Re: The Return of Bertha Anonymous   Thu Aug 08 2002 07:56 PM
. * * Random thoughts... wxman007   Thu Aug 08 2002 09:14 PM
. * * Re: Random thoughts... Anonymous   Sat Aug 10 2002 06:33 PM
. * * Re: Random thoughts... Anonymous   Sat Aug 10 2002 09:04 PM
. * * Re: Random thoughts... Bruce   Sat Aug 10 2002 09:19 PM
. * * Re: Random thoughts... Anonymous   Sun Aug 11 2002 06:18 PM
. * * Re: Random thoughts... Anonymous   Sat Aug 10 2002 10:48 PM
. * * Re: Random thoughts... ShawnS   Sat Aug 10 2002 10:53 PM
. * * Re: Random thoughts... Anonymous   Sat Aug 10 2002 11:02 PM
. * * Re: Random thoughts... 57497479   Sat Aug 10 2002 11:29 PM
. * * Re: Random thoughts... ShawnS   Sun Aug 11 2002 01:36 AM
. * * Re: Random thoughts... Bruce   Sun Aug 11 2002 01:49 AM
. * * Re: Random thoughts... Bruce   Sun Aug 11 2002 12:18 PM
. * * Re: Random thoughts... Bruce   Sun Aug 11 2002 10:56 PM
. * * Re: Random thoughts... Kevin   Sun Aug 11 2002 03:05 PM
. * * Re: Random thoughts... Anonymous   Sun Aug 11 2002 04:22 PM
. * * Re: Random thoughts... 57497479   Sun Aug 11 2002 04:44 PM
. * * Some of that nasty NW Gulf rain is moving through here now. Anonymous   Sun Aug 11 2002 06:19 PM
. * * Re: Some of that nasty NW Gulf rain is moving through here now. 57497479   Sun Aug 11 2002 08:10 PM
. * * abc... Anonymous (HF)   Sun Aug 11 2002 09:16 PM
. * * Re: abc... Anonymous   Mon Aug 12 2002 12:32 AM
. * * Re: Random thoughts... ShawnS   Sat Aug 10 2002 11:16 PM
. * * Re: Random thoughts... Anonymous   Sat Aug 10 2002 10:43 PM
. * * Re: Random thoughts... Anonymous-Carl   Sat Aug 10 2002 10:42 PM
. * * Re: Random thoughts... Anonymous   Sat Aug 10 2002 10:33 PM
. * * Re: Random thoughts... Anonymous   Sat Aug 10 2002 10:36 PM
. * * Re: Random thoughts... Anonymous   Sat Aug 10 2002 10:40 PM
. * * Re: Random thoughts... Anonymous-Carl   Sat Aug 10 2002 09:33 PM
. * * Re: Random thoughts... Hurric   Sat Aug 10 2002 10:32 PM
. * * Re: Random thoughts... Anonymous   Sat Aug 10 2002 10:28 PM
. * * Re: Random thoughts... Anonymous   Fri Aug 09 2002 12:35 PM
. * * Waiting! ShawnS   Fri Aug 09 2002 01:23 PM
. * * Random replies Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Aug 09 2002 02:58 AM
. * * Re: Random replies wxman007   Fri Aug 09 2002 03:13 AM
. * * Re: Random replies Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Aug 09 2002 03:37 AM
. * * Re: Random replies Anonymous   Fri Aug 09 2002 09:25 AM
. * * One more thing... Anonymous   Fri Aug 09 2002 09:35 AM
. * * Re: One more thing... Anonymous   Fri Aug 09 2002 03:03 PM
. * * Shawn Steve   Fri Aug 09 2002 03:12 PM
. * * Maybe??? ShawnS   Fri Aug 09 2002 06:51 PM
. * * Re: Maybe??? Anonymous   Fri Aug 09 2002 10:18 PM
. * * Re: Maybe??? ShawnS   Fri Aug 09 2002 11:01 PM
. * * Hey Jason... Anonymous   Sat Aug 10 2002 01:26 AM
. * * Re: Hey Jason... ShawnS   Sat Aug 10 2002 02:35 AM
. * * Re: Hey Jason... Anonymous   Sat Aug 10 2002 03:57 AM
. * * Re: Hey Jason... wxman007   Sat Aug 10 2002 12:14 PM
. * * Re: Hey Jason... Anonymous   Sat Aug 10 2002 12:45 PM
. * * Well... wxman007   Fri Aug 09 2002 11:00 PM
. * * Re: Random thoughts... Anonymous   Thu Aug 08 2002 10:34 PM
. * * Re: Random thoughts... 57497479   Fri Aug 09 2002 02:54 AM
. * * Re: The Return of Bertha jth   Thu Aug 08 2002 09:05 PM
. * * Re: The Return of Bertha Anonymous   Thu Aug 08 2002 07:47 PM
. * * If Chris heads NE... Anonymous   Thu Aug 08 2002 05:06 PM
. * * Re: If Chris heads NE... Anonymous   Thu Aug 08 2002 07:44 PM
. * * Re: If Chris heads NE... caneman   Thu Aug 08 2002 05:14 PM
. * * Re: If Chris heads NE... Hurric   Thu Aug 08 2002 05:25 PM
. * * Re: If Chris heads NE... ShawnS   Thu Aug 08 2002 05:37 PM
. * * Seems that Bertha has stalled.. Houstontracker   Thu Aug 08 2002 06:16 PM
. * * Re: Seems that Bertha has stalled.. ShawnS   Thu Aug 08 2002 07:20 PM
. * * Re: Seems that Bertha has stalled.. caneman   Thu Aug 08 2002 07:30 PM
. * * Trof Splits... Steve   Thu Aug 08 2002 06:15 PM
. * * Re: Trof Splits... Hurric   Fri Aug 09 2002 02:57 AM
. * * Re: The Return of Bertha Hurric   Thu Aug 08 2002 02:41 PM
. * * Re: The Return of Bertha caneman   Thu Aug 08 2002 01:18 PM
. * * Re: The Return of Bertha Anonymous   Thu Aug 08 2002 11:33 AM
. * * CRISTOBAL Left Behind? Larry   Thu Aug 08 2002 10:52 AM
. * * Bertha Very Weak greg-kfdmtv   Wed Aug 07 2002 10:23 PM
. * * Re: Bertha Very Weak ShawnS   Wed Aug 07 2002 10:46 PM
. * * Re: Bertha Very Weak ShawnS   Wed Aug 07 2002 11:31 PM
. * * Re: Bertha Very Weak ShawnS   Thu Aug 08 2002 12:14 AM
. * * Re: Bertha Very Weak ShawnS   Thu Aug 08 2002 01:24 AM
. * * Nothing personal Shawn Anonymous   Thu Aug 08 2002 01:28 AM
. * * Re: Nothing personal Shawn Anonymous   Thu Aug 08 2002 01:35 AM
. * * Re: Nothing personal Shawn ShawnS   Thu Aug 08 2002 01:32 AM
. * * Re: Nothing personal Shawn Anonymous   Thu Aug 08 2002 01:35 AM
. * * Re: Nothing personal Shawn ShawnS   Thu Aug 08 2002 01:41 AM
. * * Re: Nothing personal Shawn Anonymous   Thu Aug 08 2002 01:44 AM
. * * Re: Nothing personal Shawn ShawnS   Thu Aug 08 2002 01:48 AM
. * * Re: Nothing personal Shawn Robert   Thu Aug 08 2002 05:02 AM
. * * Re: Nothing personal Shawn Robert   Thu Aug 08 2002 05:18 AM
. * * Re: The Return of Bertha J.J.   Wed Aug 07 2002 09:16 PM
. * * Re: The Return of Bertha Rickoshade   Wed Aug 07 2002 09:07 PM

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