Tropical Storm Bonnie Forms in the southeast Gulf of Mexico

Tropical storm Charley
Forecast Number 1#
6am est/3am pst
8-10-2004

....Tropical Depression 3 becomes tropical storm Charley.....

The third tropical storm of the Atlantic hurricane season forms as of 5am est...The system is moving westward at 24 mph to the west-northwest...At the rate this system is moving, added on top of its large size, is limiting rapid development durning the past 12 hours. In on another note: Most of Monday the system was limited by a western feeder band...That sucked the convection from the center of the system for a better part of the day...Later last night into this morning this feeder band has faded away allowling the central core to form a Cdo. Because of no obs with in the area the location of the LLCC is being based on Satellite. Night time Visible shows that the low level center might be on the northeastern side of the large ball of convection with the MLC around the center around 80 miles apart...The LLCC could just as likely be stacked but that will be looked into when the recon gets into the system this afternoon.

Over the short term the system has started to develop a feeder band on its western quad...Also inflow on the south/southeast is perfect for a tropical cyclone to bomb...The western in northern seems only fair...

The Enviroment around this system seems to be very favable with shear less then 5 to 10 knots of shear...With a upper level high forming right over the tropical cyclone...Shear out ahead of this could not be more favable. This being said with water temperatures around 78 degrees to 84 degrees a Isabel or Lili class storm could form over the next 72 hours. The ouflow forming channels are perfect for a system to come together fast.

Track
The current movement is to the west-northwest which this system should stay on that track for the next 24 to 36 hours...42 to 48 hours a track just to the south of Jamica seems likely. The models over the last few runs(GFDL in other hurricane track model have shifted slightly south or left) Around 96 hours I expect this storm to be moving into the Gulf of Mexico as a powerful hurricane.

Forecast winds
Now(3am pst,6am est) 40 mph 1007 millibars
6(9am pst,12pm est) 45 mph 1005 millibars
12(9pm pst,12am est) 55 mph 1003 millibars
24(3am pst,6am est) 60 mph 997 millibars
36(9am pst,12pm est) 70 mph 993 millibars
48(9pm pst,12am est) 85 mph 987 millibars
60(9am pst,12pm est) 95 mph 982 millibars
72(9pm pst,12am est) 105 mph 972 millibars
84(9am pst,12pm est) 110 mph 965 millibars
96(9pm pst,12am est) 90 mph 978 millibars(Moving over the northern yact)
Long range forecast...
108(9am pst,12pm est) 105 mph 974 millibars(Central Gulf of Mexico around 25 north/90 west)
120 hours(9pm pst,12am est) 125 mph 955 millibars(Nearing the texas in La boarder)

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