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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

Clark
Meteorologist

Reged:
Posts: 1710

Re: Cantore?
Tue Aug 10 2004 12:17 PM

A thought.

Bonnie is forecast to be accelerating NE in the 4 day time frame or so. Tropical cyclones interacting with midlatitude boundaries can often leave behind a boundary of their own - or at least keep the one that recurved it around for awhile. We saw this with the trailing bands from Alex & the front it got caught by, for instance.

With this boundary in place and another forecast to be diving southward, I'm not sure I can see the western GoM in too much peril from Charley unless it remains a relatively weak system - in which case it doesn't react to the steering flow and continues WNW-bound. Charley is expected to be in the NW Carib./SE GoM around the 4-5 day time frame and, assuming at least a moderate tropical storm by then, would tend to get caught up and recurve.

How much and when are still yet to be determined. But, as the NHC noted, there is good consistency out to 72hr amongst the models - which all performed well with Isabel on track last year - but they diverge at later times. The models that keep it weaker trend west, the models that develop it trend east. The NHC is going with the latter and I tend to agree. But again, it's so far out that things can (and probably will) change, so these are just my thoughts for now.

This whole pattern is more reminiscent of October than August, at least it seems.

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
TD#3 Upgraded to Tropical Storm Charley	MikeC	Tue Aug 10 2004 12:17 PM
Re: TD#3 Upgraded to Tropical Storm Charley	Anonymous	Tue Aug 10 2004 03:00 PM
Bonni	jth	Tue Aug 10 2004 03:08 PM
Re: Bonni	Anonymous	Tue Aug 10 2004 03:10 PM
Re: Bonni	summercyclone	Tue Aug 10 2004 04:14 PM
Charley	Frank P	Tue Aug 10 2004 04:16 PM
Re: recon	Anonymous	Tue Aug 10 2004 03:12 PM
does anyone know where the planes are re: charley	bobbi	Tue Aug 10 2004 03:02 PM
PRESIDENT N PANHANDLE	Anonymous	Tue Aug 10 2004 03:08 PM
Latest GFDL for Charlie	FlaRebel	Tue Aug 10 2004 03:14 PM
bonnie!	Anonymous	Tue Aug 10 2004 03:21 PM
Re: bonnie!	Larry	Tue Aug 10 2004 03:33 PM
Here we go...	wxman007	Tue Aug 10 2004 03:41 PM
Re: Here we go...	Larry	Tue Aug 10 2004 05:11 PM
Re: Here we go...	texasone	Tue Aug 10 2004 05:14 PM
Re: Here we go...	52255225	Tue Aug 10 2004 05:57 PM
Texasone	LI Phil	Tue Aug 10 2004 05:22 PM
Re: Texasone	texasone	Tue Aug 10 2004 05:34 PM
Re: Texasone	James88	Tue Aug 10 2004 05:38 PM
TWC coverage	Clark	Tue Aug 10 2004 05:51 PM
Re: TWC coverage	LI Phil	Tue Aug 10 2004 05:54 PM
Charley track	Kevin	Tue Aug 10 2004 05:29 PM
Re: Charley track	Rich B	Tue Aug 10 2004 05:34 PM
Re: Charley track	Anonymous	Tue Aug 10 2004 05:50 PM
Re: Charley track	Anonymous	Tue Aug 10 2004 05:51 PM
Re: Charley track	Steve hirschb.	Tue Aug 10 2004 05:31 PM
Re: Here we go...	jth	Tue Aug 10 2004 03:48 PM
Re: Here we go...	BugsBunny	Tue Aug 10 2004 05:52 PM
Re: Here we go...	Anonymous	Tue Aug 10 2004 05:58 PM
Re: Here we go...	Anonymous	Tue Aug 10 2004 06:05 PM
Re: Here we go...	Anonymous	Tue Aug 10 2004 06:08 PM
Other Tropical Disturbances	Anonymous	Tue Aug 10 2004 06:11 PM
PRESIDENT N PANHANDLE pc	Anonymous	Tue Aug 10 2004 06:19 PM
Re: PRESIDENT N PANHANDLE pc	SirCane	Tue Aug 10 2004 07:01 PM
Preparations - West Coast Florida Lag	RedingtonBeachGuy	Tue Aug 10 2004 07:20 PM
Re: Preparations - West Coast Florida Lag	h2ocean	Tue Aug 10 2004 07:40 PM
Bush and Bonnie...	wxman007	Tue Aug 10 2004 07:14 PM
Re: Bush and Bonnie...	RedingtonBeachGuy	Tue Aug 10 2004 07:22 PM
Recon	LI Phil	Tue Aug 10 2004 07:27 PM
Re: Recon	wxman007	Tue Aug 10 2004 07:30 PM
reading data from noaa!	Anonymous	Tue Aug 10 2004 07:43 PM
Re: Recon	Arnold Sw.	Tue Aug 10 2004 07:43 PM
Re: Recon	Anonymous	Tue Aug 10 2004 07:49 PM
two for tuesday	HanKFranK	Tue Aug 10 2004 08:11 PM
Station 42001	Anonymous	Tue Aug 10 2004 07:52 PM
As If.....	Colleen A.	Tue Aug 10 2004 08:08 PM
Re: As If.....	Steve Hirschb.	Tue Aug 10 2004 08:47 PM
Steve Steve Steve	Colleen A.	Tue Aug 10 2004 09:43 PM
Re: Steve Steve Steve	Steve Hirschb.	Wed Aug 11 2004 12:13 AM
Re: Steve Steve Steve	Colleen A.	Wed Aug 11 2004 12:17 AM
Re: Steve Steve Steve	joepub1	Wed Aug 11 2004 12:36 AM
Re: Steve Steve Steve	Storm Cooper	Wed Aug 11 2004 02:29 AM
Re: here goes bonnie	Anonymous	Tue Aug 10 2004 07:59 PM
Re: bonnie	mikeG	Tue Aug 10 2004 08:19 PM
Re: bonnie	DroopGB31	Tue Aug 10 2004 08:30 PM
Re: bonnie	mikeG	Tue Aug 10 2004 08:32 PM
Re: bonnie	firestar_1	Tue Aug 10 2004 08:41 PM
Re: Charley	danielw	Tue Aug 10 2004 08:56 PM
Re: Charley	EMS	Tue Aug 10 2004 09:08 PM
Re: Charley	Hardcore	Tue Aug 10 2004 09:01 PM
Re: bonnie	Anonymous	Tue Aug 10 2004 08:49 PM
Re: bonnie	mikeG	Tue Aug 10 2004 08:59 PM
Re: bonnie	Steve	Tue Aug 10 2004 09:06 PM
Re: bonnie	DroopGB31	Tue Aug 10 2004 09:10 PM
Re: bonnie	danielw	Tue Aug 10 2004 09:42 PM
Re: bonnie	Anonymous	Tue Aug 10 2004 10:07 PM
Re: bonnie	Colleen A.	Tue Aug 10 2004 09:50 PM
Oooops....	wxman007	Tue Aug 10 2004 09:45 PM
Re: bonnie	PFSThunder	Tue Aug 10 2004 09:42 PM
Re: bonnie	BillD	Tue Aug 10 2004 09:47 PM
Re: bonnie	Colleen A.	Tue Aug 10 2004 09:52 PM
Re: bonnie	DroopGB31	Tue Aug 10 2004 10:04 PM
Re: bonnie	wxman007	Tue Aug 10 2004 10:11 PM
Re: bonnie	SirCane	Tue Aug 10 2004 10:37 PM
Charley	Colleen A.	Tue Aug 10 2004 10:23 PM
Re: Charley	Anonymous	Tue Aug 10 2004 10:39 PM
Re: Charley	Anonymous	Tue Aug 10 2004 10:35 PM
Bonnie hmm	Alex K	Tue Aug 10 2004 10:51 PM
Recon?	Anonymous	Tue Aug 10 2004 11:48 PM
Re: Recon?	Joe	Wed Aug 11 2004 12:15 AM
Re: Recon?	BillD	Wed Aug 11 2004 12:28 AM
Re: Recon?	danielw	Tue Aug 10 2004 11:52 PM
Re: Recon?	SirCane	Wed Aug 11 2004 12:01 AM
Re: Recon?	BillD	Wed Aug 11 2004 12:37 AM
Re: Bonnie	Anonymous	Wed Aug 11 2004 12:07 AM
Re: Bonnie	Anonymous	Wed Aug 11 2004 12:22 AM
Re: Bonnie	Anonymous	Wed Aug 11 2004 12:38 AM
Re: Bonnie	danielw	Wed Aug 11 2004 12:42 AM
Re: Bonnie	HanKFranK	Wed Aug 11 2004 12:56 AM
waves	BugsBunny	Wed Aug 11 2004 02:03 AM
Re: Charley 0624Z	danielw	Wed Aug 11 2004 02:32 AM
Re: Recon is Airborne	danielw	Wed Aug 11 2004 02:33 AM
Re: Recon is Airborne	danielw	Wed Aug 11 2004 03:02 AM
Re: Jamaica Weather 06Z	danielw	Wed Aug 11 2004 02:55 AM
Re: Bonnie	Anonymous	Wed Aug 11 2004 12:50 AM
Re: Bonnie	danielw	Wed Aug 11 2004 12:55 AM
Re: Charley	BillD	Tue Aug 10 2004 10:45 PM
Re: Charley	jth	Tue Aug 10 2004 10:49 PM
Re: Charley	Colleen A.	Tue Aug 10 2004 11:30 PM
Re: Charley	Colleen A.	Tue Aug 10 2004 11:10 PM
Re: Charlie	stormpath	Tue Aug 10 2004 11:25 PM
Re: Charlie	Colleen A.	Tue Aug 10 2004 11:37 PM
Re: Charlie	Tropics Guy	Tue Aug 10 2004 11:55 PM
Charlie moving fast ...towards somewhere in Florida	LoisCane	Wed Aug 11 2004 12:30 AM
Re: Charlie	Anonymous	Wed Aug 11 2004 12:10 AM
Re: Charlie	danielw	Tue Aug 10 2004 11:30 PM
Re: Charley	wxman007	Tue Aug 10 2004 10:24 PM
Thanks, Jason	Colleen A.	Tue Aug 10 2004 10:26 PM
Re: Thanks, Jason	DroopGB31	Tue Aug 10 2004 10:32 PM
Re:Charley	danielw	Tue Aug 10 2004 10:54 PM
Re: Thanks, Jason	wxman007	Tue Aug 10 2004 10:36 PM
Re: TS WATCH is UP	danielw	Tue Aug 10 2004 10:31 PM
Re: bonnie	wxman007	Tue Aug 10 2004 10:17 PM
Re: bonnie	GuppieGrouper	Tue Aug 10 2004 10:00 PM
Re: bonnie	Colleen A.	Tue Aug 10 2004 10:17 PM
Re:charley	danielw	Tue Aug 10 2004 10:20 PM
Re:charley	Colleen A.	Tue Aug 10 2004 10:24 PM
Re: bonnie	LI Phil	Tue Aug 10 2004 09:51 PM
WV Loops	Colleen A.	Tue Aug 10 2004 10:08 PM
Re: bonnie	wxman007	Tue Aug 10 2004 09:52 PM
Re: bonnie	Colleen A.	Tue Aug 10 2004 09:58 PM
Re: bonnie	LI Phil	Tue Aug 10 2004 10:02 PM
Re: bonnie	SirCane	Tue Aug 10 2004 09:46 PM
Re: bonnie	Hardcore	Tue Aug 10 2004 09:48 PM
Re: bonnie	wxman007	Tue Aug 10 2004 09:51 PM
charley.. when was the last time you saw such a round ball over cdo	LoisCane	Tue Aug 10 2004 09:17 PM
Re: charley.. when was the last time you saw such a round ball over cdo	wxman007	Tue Aug 10 2004 09:35 PM
Re: charley.. when was the last time you saw such a round ball over cdo	EMS	Tue Aug 10 2004 09:39 PM
Storm Surge Info - Tampa Bay	RedingtonBeachGuy	Tue Aug 10 2004 09:45 PM
Re: bonnie	Alan	Tue Aug 10 2004 09:06 PM
Sir Charles	LI Phil	Tue Aug 10 2004 08:47 PM
Re: bourbon st low adding insult to injury	danielw	Tue Aug 10 2004 08:40 PM
Mr. Anon	LI Phil	Tue Aug 10 2004 08:05 PM
Re: Station 42001	SirCane	Tue Aug 10 2004 07:57 PM
hi jason	bobbi	Tue Aug 10 2004 07:39 PM
Re: Bush and Bonnie...	wxman007	Tue Aug 10 2004 07:24 PM
bonnie landfall	rickonboat	Tue Aug 10 2004 07:29 PM
FSU Superensemble 18z	Clark	Tue Aug 10 2004 07:40 PM
Re: Here we go...	rickonboat	Tue Aug 10 2004 04:00 PM
Re: Here we go...	LI Phil	Tue Aug 10 2004 04:07 PM
Re: Here we go...	rickonboat	Tue Aug 10 2004 04:13 PM
Re: Here we go...	Anonymous	Tue Aug 10 2004 04:03 PM
regarding the the loop..	bobbi	Tue Aug 10 2004 03:56 PM
Re: regarding the the loop..	Anonymous	Tue Aug 10 2004 04:17 PM
Re: regarding the the loop..	Anonymous	Tue Aug 10 2004 04:30 PM
Re: regarding the the loop..	James88	Tue Aug 10 2004 04:34 PM
ReCHARLIE	LONNY307	Tue Aug 10 2004 04:40 PM
Re: regarding the the loop..	wxman007	Tue Aug 10 2004 04:26 PM
Re: regarding the the loop..	rmbjoe1954	Tue Aug 10 2004 04:36 PM
Jason K	jth	Tue Aug 10 2004 04:28 PM
Re: Jason K	wxman007	Tue Aug 10 2004 04:37 PM
Re: Jason K	LI Phil	Tue Aug 10 2004 04:43 PM
Re: Jason K	Anonymous	Tue Aug 10 2004 04:45 PM
10 mile eye makes me wonder	rickonboat	Tue Aug 10 2004 04:53 PM
Re: 10 mile eye makes me wonder	Clark	Tue Aug 10 2004 04:59 PM
Re: 10 mile eye makes me wonder	mikeG	Tue Aug 10 2004 05:12 PM
Re: 10 mile eye makes me wonder	rickonboat	Tue Aug 10 2004 05:31 PM
recon	Anonymous	Tue Aug 10 2004 05:15 PM
Re: Jason K	James88	Tue Aug 10 2004 04:52 PM
Re: Jason K	mikeG	Tue Aug 10 2004 04:51 PM
Re: RECON	mikeG	Tue Aug 10 2004 04:53 PM
TURNING ON CUE	Anonymous	Tue Aug 10 2004 04:55 PM
Re: TURNING ON CUE	Steve hirschb.	Tue Aug 10 2004 05:03 PM
GOES Rapid Scan	wxman007	Tue Aug 10 2004 05:00 PM
Re: GOES Rapid Scan	Anonymous	Tue Aug 10 2004 05:20 PM
Re: GOES Rapid Scan	Anonymous	Tue Aug 10 2004 05:33 PM
Re:Bonnie	Anonymous	Tue Aug 10 2004 05:27 PM
Re:Bonnie	teal61	Tue Aug 10 2004 05:32 PM
Re:Bonnie	Anonymous	Tue Aug 10 2004 05:45 PM
Re:Bonnie	Anonymous	Tue Aug 10 2004 05:47 PM
Does Charlie have an eye starting?	ErinAndOpal95	Tue Aug 10 2004 05:29 PM
Re: Does Charlie have an eye starting?	bobbi	Tue Aug 10 2004 06:26 PM
Re: Does Charlie have an eye starting?	Anonymous	Tue Aug 10 2004 06:32 PM
Re: Charley-MSW 65 mph	danielw	Tue Aug 10 2004 07:45 PM
Charlie in explosion mode	rickonboat	Tue Aug 10 2004 07:55 PM
Re: Charlie in explosion mode	danielw	Tue Aug 10 2004 08:04 PM
Re: Does Charlie have an eye starting?	PFSThunder	Tue Aug 10 2004 07:22 PM
bring bacck bonnie	Anonymous	Tue Aug 10 2004 06:37 PM
Re: bring bacck bonnie	Anonymous	Tue Aug 10 2004 06:52 PM
Re: bring bacck bonnie	LI Phil	Tue Aug 10 2004 07:00 PM
Latest Vortex...	wxman007	Tue Aug 10 2004 05:04 PM
Re: Jason K	rmbjoe1954	Tue Aug 10 2004 04:39 PM
outflow from the recent past	bobbi	Tue Aug 10 2004 03:53 PM
Re: Here we go...	SirCane	Tue Aug 10 2004 03:45 PM
Charley spluttering?	James88	Tue Aug 10 2004 03:27 PM
Re: Bonnie spluttering?	Anonymous	Tue Aug 10 2004 03:29 PM
Dvorak's?	LI Phil	Tue Aug 10 2004 03:28 PM
Re: bonnie!	mikeG	Tue Aug 10 2004 03:25 PM
Re: bonnie/charley	Anonymous	Tue Aug 10 2004 03:27 PM
Re: bonnie/charley	BugsBunny	Tue Aug 10 2004 03:30 PM
Re: Latest GFDL for Charlie	Steve hirschb.	Tue Aug 10 2004 03:19 PM
Re: Latest GFDL for Charlie	Anonymous	Tue Aug 10 2004 03:18 PM
Re: TD#3 Upgraded to Tropical Storm Charley	Clark	Tue Aug 10 2004 11:26 AM
Re: TD#3 Upgraded to Tropical Storm Charley	scottsvb1	Tue Aug 10 2004 12:13 PM
Re: TD#3 Upgraded to Tropical Storm Charley	scottsvb1	Tue Aug 10 2004 12:22 PM
Re: TD#3 Upgraded to Tropical Storm Charley	Steve hirschb.	Tue Aug 10 2004 01:28 PM
Re: TD#3 Upgraded to Tropical Storm Charley	scottsvb1	Tue Aug 10 2004 01:31 PM
Re: TD#3 Upgraded to Tropical Storm Charley	Anonymous	Tue Aug 10 2004 01:44 PM
Re: TD#3 Upgraded to Tropical Storm Charley	rmbjoe1954	Tue Aug 10 2004 01:36 PM
Re: TD#3 Upgraded to Tropical Storm Charley	Lake Toho - Kissimmee	Tue Aug 10 2004 02:07 PM
Re: TD#3 Upgraded to Tropical Storm Charley	RedingtonBeachGuy	Tue Aug 10 2004 12:11 PM
Tampa	LI Phil	Tue Aug 10 2004 12:19 PM
Bonnie	jth	Tue Aug 10 2004 12:28 PM
Re: Bonnie	rickonboat	Tue Aug 10 2004 12:50 PM
Re: Bonnie	doug	Tue Aug 10 2004 01:25 PM
rick...lol	LI Phil	Tue Aug 10 2004 12:58 PM
Re: rick...lol	rickonboat	Tue Aug 10 2004 01:28 PM
Cantore?	LI Phil	Tue Aug 10 2004 11:34 AM
Re: Cantore?	Clark	Tue Aug 10 2004 12:10 PM
Re: Blank spot on the map!?	Anonymous	Tue Aug 10 2004 01:29 PM
Re: Cantore?	Clark	Tue Aug 10 2004 12:17 PM
bonnie	bobbi	Tue Aug 10 2004 01:54 PM
ps..re: charley	bobbi	Tue Aug 10 2004 01:56 PM
bonnie for the moment	rickonboat	Tue Aug 10 2004 02:06 PM
Re: bonnie for the moment	LI Phil	Tue Aug 10 2004 02:14 PM
Re: bonnie for the moment	Storm Cooper	Tue Aug 10 2004 02:26 PM
Re: bonnie for the moment	Old Sailor	Tue Aug 10 2004 02:35 PM
Re: bonnie for the moment	Storm Cooper	Tue Aug 10 2004 02:39 PM
Re: bonnie for the moment	Anonymous	Tue Aug 10 2004 02:51 PM
FSU Superensemble	Clark	Tue Aug 10 2004 12:53 PM
Cape Verde Season	rmbjoe1954	Tue Aug 10 2004 01:00 PM
Other Things of Interest	Anonymous	Tue Aug 10 2004 01:14 PM
Re: Other Things of Interest	Anonymous	Tue Aug 10 2004 01:35 PM
Re: Other Things of Interest	andy1tom	Tue Aug 10 2004 01:42 PM
Re: Other Things of Interest	Storm Cooper	Tue Aug 10 2004 01:47 PM
Re: Other Things of Interest	andy1tom	Tue Aug 10 2004 01:50 PM
No booze?	LI Phil	Tue Aug 10 2004 01:59 PM
Re: Other Things of Interest	Storm Cooper	Tue Aug 10 2004 01:55 PM
Re: Other Things of Interest	andy1tom	Tue Aug 10 2004 02:01 PM
Re: Other Things of Interest	Storm Cooper	Tue Aug 10 2004 02:04 PM
Other Loops of Interest	bobbi	Tue Aug 10 2004 02:08 PM
Re: Other Loops of Interest	Old Sailor	Tue Aug 10 2004 02:30 PM
Re: Other Things of Interest	Hardcore	Tue Aug 10 2004 01:16 PM
Re: Other Things of Interest	Anonymous	Tue Aug 10 2004 01:37 PM
running away	Alex L	Tue Aug 10 2004 04:29 PM
Re: Other Things of Interest	scottsvb1	Tue Aug 10 2004 01:50 PM
Re: Cape Verde Season	James88	Tue Aug 10 2004 01:11 PM
Re: Cantore?	joepub1	Tue Aug 10 2004 12:05 PM
Hurricane "Clyde"	clyde w.	Tue Aug 10 2004 01:35 PM
Re: Cantore?	Kal	Tue Aug 10 2004 11:44 AM
Re: Cantore?	Anonymous	Tue Aug 10 2004 11:51 AM
Re: Cantore?	Anonymous	Tue Aug 10 2004 11:53 AM
Good Tracking Map	LI Phil	Tue Aug 10 2004 11:50 AM
Re: Good Tracking Map	hurricane_run	Tue Aug 10 2004 11:56 AM
NW Florida surge	Anonymous	Tue Aug 10 2004 11:33 AM
another repost of my forecast	BugsBunny	Tue Aug 10 2004 11:32 AM
Re: another repost of my forecast	LoisCane	Tue Aug 10 2004 12:07 PM
Re: TD#3 Upgraded to Tropical Storm Charley	joepub1	Tue Aug 10 2004 10:42 AM
RECON STARTING	Anonymous	Tue Aug 10 2004 10:48 AM
Re: RECON STARTING	Anonymous	Tue Aug 10 2004 11:17 AM
Re: RECON STARTING	joepub1	Tue Aug 10 2004 10:56 AM
Re: RECON STARTING	Anonymous	Tue Aug 10 2004 10:59 AM
DISCUSSION	Anonymous	Tue Aug 10 2004 11:01 AM
Re: RECON STARTING	BugsBunny	Tue Aug 10 2004 10:57 AM
Re: RECON STARTING	LoisCane	Tue Aug 10 2004 11:01 AM
Re: RECON STARTING	BugsBunny	Tue Aug 10 2004 11:04 AM
Re: RECON STARTING	Anonymous	Tue Aug 10 2004 11:25 AM
CENTER EXPOSED? BONNIE	Anonymous	Tue Aug 10 2004 11:17 AM
Re: CENTER EXPOSED? BONNIE	Anonymous	Tue Aug 10 2004 11:42 AM
JB	LI Phil	Tue Aug 10 2004 11:15 AM
ADV	Anonymous	Tue Aug 10 2004 11:03 AM
Re: RECON STARTING	BugsBunny	Tue Aug 10 2004 10:55 AM
Re: TD#3 Upgraded to Tropical Storm Charley	James88	Tue Aug 10 2004 10:36 AM

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