The 18z FSU Superensemble forecasts are rather interesting, particularly for Charlie. But, I'll start with Bonnie.
It is expecting landfall pretty much over Panama City in just under 2 days with an intensity just slightly below the official forecase - somewhere around borderline hurricane intensity. No real surprises there.
However, with Charlie, it keeps the storm further offshore than almost every model and, as a consequence, stronger than all but the SHIPS guidance. It brings Charlie up to high-end cat 2 in 96hr with an eventual landfall near Apalachicola (or just slightly east) shortly thereafter. All of the other guidance is further west, clustered towards Cedar Key. But, wait a day or two for the Gulfstream obs - both of the Gulf with Bonnie and the Carib. with Charlie - and see what happens then. There's a little too much run-to-run inconsistency with almost every model for my liking.
Wish recon could've stayed out there a while longer on Charlie to sample around the current flareup, but alas they left right as it started to blossom. It's looking better on the satellite, but it still needs to slow down to intensify at any decent clip. Maybe this flareup suggests it might be doing just that. And Bonnie? I still can't tell if there's a 2nd center forming or not, and we've just lost the daylight & the visible imagery over the region. Expect status quo for another 6hr with this storm as it gets it's act together, then re-evaluate things. The potential is still there...just not yet.
0 registered and 509 anonymous users are browsing this forum.
Moderator:
Forum Permissions
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Rating:
Thread views: 82917
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center