Lots of interesting discussions around the web today. Bastardi weighed in with an evening post noting that Bonnie was indeed splitting. A piece of the energy was being left behind (ala the circulation to the SW) while the main energy seems to be revving up again. He also isn't giving up on his endgame for Charley, though he acknowledged in post #2 that what the models and NHC are up to is legit. I threw in the towel long before he did. In order for Charley to have been a Mex/Tex threat, it would have had to slow down at some point so that the trof could pick up Bonnie and the ridge could redevelop (as in blocking high) over the Northern Gulf. With Charley still blazing WNW around 25mph, that's probably not going to happen. I like the NHC's idea with a second East Gulf threat.
Hard to say about intensity. Bonnnie is a mystery. She had everything going for her, and as usual, is flaring up again. She's been a PM storm from even back in her TD #2 days. At some point, you'd think that feedback is actually going to ignite something (or else it doesn't). Charlie's been looking like a potential bad boy for a couple of days. He stuck out like a sore thumb when approaching the islands. He's of tropical origin as well. He could turn out to be a beautiful sight before all is said and done. One of these days my kids will be old enough to fend for themselves and I'll be PM'ing some of you no-good suckers for a road-trip party. As always, my door is open to any CFHCers who need to blow out of town but don't want to go to West Virginia or northern Georgia.
Beginning tomorrow night, we could have what is a one in a million scenario - the possibility of 2 canes passing over the same general area within 72-96 hours. Ordiniarilly one is a TS and the other is a cane.
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