Hurricane Watches Up In Florida for Bonnie and Charley

Finally got to read the whole (last) thread. The Publix and Winn Dixie jokes were great. Nice to see some humor in an otherwise precarious situation. We all have our ways of dealing with crisises (crises?).

Both storms are pretty fascinating today. Bonnie looks her best yet and Charlie is just plodding along. He's slowed down to 16 at the 11am advisory and is heading WNW. TPC sees the same essential endgame with the system.

We've got a once in a lifetime situation where there's a shot at two storms (possibly both hurricanes) affecting the same area within a day and a half of each other (by that, I mean NC Florida, Southern GA, etc.). Check out some of the surface charts for the 6 and 12 hour precip totals all the way up the east coast. This is a way to get some heat up there. For anyone who's staying behind, ice up that beer and get ready. Effects in the Panhandle should start within 24 hours. Additionally, Fort Walton got like 6.5" of rain yesterday (Valparaiso per TWC), and more is on the way. I'm hoping to see some peripheral effects here in New Orleans. Today 's air had a different feel to it. You can sense the closeness of a tropical system - muggy but not unbearable; warm, but not hot. Usually a storm won't drag in a cold front until mid or late October (ref. Juan 1985). But the summer of 2004 is a new animal. This will be the 3rd cold front in as many weeks (highs progged at 86 and sunny by Friday). Most of the time a landfalling storm in August along the panhandle will bring in some of that hot upper-90's Texas air. Not this time. Maybe we'll sneak in a band or two between the front and Bonnie.

As for Charley, it's still too early to guess how strong he could get. He's had the looks all along like he'd be a major storm. Had his motion slowed down and he was able to get into the SC Gulf, he could have easily achieved Cat IV. I don't think he goes that high curving up the West Coast of FL, but a 2 or even possibly a 3 isn't out of the realm of possibility. Y'all pay attention to what your local weather service advises, especially if Charley cranks.

Down the road, there's a swirl due east of the NC Coast around 70/35 that appears to be at the mid levels. Then Bastardi is talking about the ridge building behind the storms, and a piece of energy in the Central Atlantic with a shot to influence the western gulf late next week. After that, the lid pops for the Cape Verde season. Hopefully with the eastern early season, this won't mean everything else is fish spinners or BOC NE hybrids.

Looking forward to tons of photos from close in on the action. Too many of you live between Escambia and Bay Counties and also in the greater Tampa Bay area. If you register, you can attach digital photos to your posts. Don't be stingy with the uploads. Everyone's got a digital camera these days.

Steve

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