Rafael continues to decouple over the Gulf. Meanwhile we are keeping a watch on Invest 98L around the Bahamas and potentially a new low forming in the Caribbean.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any
31 (Milton)
, Major:
31 (Milton)
Florida - Any: 31 (Milton)
Major:
31 (Milton)
Hurricane Warnings are up for the Florida Keys now.
Bonnie is being affected greatly by vertical shear at present and now I think it will maintain just Tropical Storm status as it makes landfall.
Charley on the other hand is still good for potential strengthening, and the NHC's official track has moved a bit west toward Tampa as a landfall point, but at a very indirect angle, but the NHC says this could change. And with the new data from the Gulfstream jet the trends can now be much better verified.
However, I think more surprises with Charley are still to come. I do think it will strengthen some more. Everyone in Florida should keep watch of it. With Charley the biggest question is will the trough pick him up or not. There is one scenario that drops Charely off in the Gulf to linger a bit, but I'm not sold on that one yet,. And just to muddy it up more for you, yes there is a fairly decent chance the track will nudge back east a bit later today too.
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