Category II Charley takes aim at the Gulf Coast of Florida

Pressure is but one measure of a storm's intensity and is not always correlated with the system's wind speed. Pressures are higher over the western Caribbean than normal, and per the NHC, this is why 105mph winds can be sustained with such a storm. They won't falsely say winds are higher or lower than they are, as there would be too much backlash from the general and scientific communities.

Charley looks to be about halfway across Cuba and should re-emerge in the Gulf around or just after 2am. He's taken a little wobble west over land, but it's not significant right now and a more general view of the track over the past 6 hours is preffered - i.e. NNW. The eye on satellite seems to be holding together over land, and Key West radar confirms this. Don't see any reason why some strengthening isn't possible overnight during the diurnal convective max. Waters are extremely warm around the Keys, running near 90 in some spots.

Recon will not be able to give a vortex report until after the entire center is over the water once again; can't drop a dropsonde while it's over land, particularly over Cuba! Even if it gets there before then, the recon won't be able to transmit a vortex report for another hour or two.

Charley is a compact storm and track errors will be critical when it comes time for landfall. The circulation envelope is large than with Bonnie, however, meaning I can't see the shear it will eventually encounter having nearly the same effect on Charley as it did on Bonnie. BTW, it's worth noting that the cyclone phase analyses from the 18z GFDL on Bonnie (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase) show that it made landfall as a cold-core low after having undergone extratropical transition prior to landfall. That's consistent with satellite and surface observations.

Bottom line on Charley - strengthening is possible starting in about another 2 hours once the entire center is over the water, the full turn to the north (and NNE) has not yet begun, and residents in the warning area need to be on guard for anything. I am really surprised that there is not at least a TS warning north of the Suwannee River (where the hurricane warning abruptly ends); NWS/Tallahassee feels that any impacts on the NW side will be minimal and are putting heavy faith in the NHC track (plus probably don't want to keep up the extra staff needed with watches & warnings in the area after just finishing up with Bonnie), but considering the large difference a small shift to the west will cause in the ultimate landfall position, I completely disagree and surely hope they aren't putting themselves in a very precarious position. I don't think it will get up there, but better safe than sorry.

I've targeted somewhere a bit north of Ft. Myers for a landfall, based mainly upon model consensus as well as the predominant upper steering pattern. When Bonnie came in, it lifted the Florida part of the trough up ever-so-slightly, which I think is allowing Charley to track a bit further west than may have originally been anticipated. But, as the trough builds back in further as Bonnie weakens and races NE-ward, Charley will eventually follow suit and turn. There's no good place for a storm like this to make landfall and I hope everyone up and down I-75 - especially west of the interstate - from Ocala southward are in a safe place, because it's only going to get worse (a lot worse) before it gets better. Flooding and surge will be the biggest impacts; unsecured structures will also see heavy wind impacts, though these will be dependent upon how much the storm strengthens.

I've got to turn in for the night, though, as I'm still really drained after chasing Bonnie. Stay safe everyone and if you have to get out, do so asap.

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