Charley is emerging off the coast near Daytona Beach at this time - I'll be interested to see what TWC has when they can start up live reports once again. Sanford reported a wind gust to 92mph. Got another report from a friend on damage on the east side of Orlando - doesn't look good. Numerous trees down, some on houses, and thinking it may be a few days to get everything cleared out. He's heading there tomorrow with supplies, as they will likely be short to come by in Orlando, to help out his family. No word from St. Cloud, where my family has a lot of friends, but I can't imagine it's going to be very good - many, many trees in the older residential parts of that town, with potential tornado reports earlier in the day in the newer parts of town to the east and to the south.
The waters off of the Florida coast are warm, but the NHC is correct in saying that they are not as warm as off of Ft. Myers. I took a look at the SST map for that area and there indeed is a warm pool from the southern tip of Florida up to near where the storm made landfall; this likely contributed to the increase in intensity before it made landfall. However, despite the difference in temperatures, it's not great and really is the difference between about 85 and 88 degrees. The system is moving fast enough to the NE to make shear less of a concern for future development. The inner core held together very well as it crossed the state of Florida, almost surprisingly so in fact. Most models take the storm inland again in 12-18 hrs in Myrtle Beach, with some minor strengthening forecast, followed by a path up the eastern seaboard. That's what the NHC is going with, but I've got a couple of qualms.
First, Charlie's landfall - like Alex, like Bonnie - has shown a rightward bias. There is a common problem with these storms in the models, and I tend to think a second landfall will likely be further east once again - and not just for this reason. Wilmington to the Cape - Alex's region - is where I'm looking, which would keep the center over water longer. But, everyone up the SC & NC coasts should be prepared.
Coincidentally, with the warm waters and relatively low storm-relative shear on the path I foresee, some additional strengthening is likely. The latest shear analysis shows 50kt of shear along the shore, but offshore it is only around 30kt. Without the trough digging very much and Charley moving at about 25mph right now, relative shear is still going to be relatively low for awhile over the waters - probably 5-15mph, gradually increasing with time. The NHC thinks there will be more, likely a consequence on their forecast, which could well verify. However, I think there is the potential for this storm to strengthen more than they anticipate.
Relatively warm waters with a well-defined inner core and not entirely unfavorable conditions all play a role in my reasoning. But, the question becomes, how much strengthening? While one of my friends who I trust is saying it could well get to cat. 4 again, I'm not buying that strong. I would not be surprised to see a high end cat. 2 - maybe around 105-110mph - at landfall. Note that the NHC is lower, around 90mph; I'm not discounting this, but am pointing out the potential for more than they forecast. Landfall somewhere between Wilmington and the Cape (Hatteras) is likely in the 18hr time frame, plus or minus a few hours. People along the NC & SC coasts need to be rushing plans to completion because this storm certainly is not done with wreaking havoc as of yet.
I've heard some stories from inside the Florida EOC today that are not all too flattering about how the Hurricane Center has handled Charley, and on the outside from what I've seen, I can agree to a point. However, they are still the authorities and still should be the ones to trust in any situation like this...I just disagree with them underestimating this storm's potential consistantly, particularly once inland. Telling a county's emergency mgmt. team that they are going to experience 75-85mph winds when the storm is over them with their own advisories saying the winds are at 115mph is just not right. The local NWS groups have handled this very well, though I hope there is no backlash in Tampa from evacuating everyone...one only need point at Punta Gorda, Port Charlotte, and Orlando to see what could have been. This is going to be a wake up call for the entire state, and despite being fairly well prepared this time, many in Orlando were not prepared for that they experienced. Next time, they will be.
Watch Charley for the next day or two, then it should finally be out of our hair. Don't discount more strengthening than the NHC is forecasting, but always err on their side when in doubt. NC & SC need to be prepared for the worst and should be rushing those plans to completion now. We're looking at tens of billions of dollars in damage from this storm, with a total that's only going to go up with time.
Danielle and TD 5 look to both be getting better organized; it's the latter of the two I'm most worried about. It'll be interesting to see how that plays out down the road, but 5 days from now we'll probably see a storm in a similar spot to where Charlie was a night or two ago. I'm not even going to bother forecasting it's intensity, seeing no fault in the NHC's forecast, having not had the chance to look at everything myself, and five days out having large errors anyway. Danielle may well be a fish spinner, but I think we need to get a better handle on what it is going to do over the next day or two before declaring that to be so. The NHC will probably flip-flop on it a couple of times, but it's 10 days away in any case. Tropics are active, so everyone needs to be vigilent and just hope we don't end up with another storm near Florida this season...they've had enough.
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